F1
F10:01
你好，我叫 Jennifer Prohman，来自加拿大多伦多。
Hi, my name is Jennifer Prohman from Toronto, Canada.
巴菲特先生，1998 年有人请您评论医药行业，当时您的回答是，您认为自己没能采取一篮子投资的方式布局这个行业，是个错误。
Mr. Buffett, in 1998 you were asked to comment on the pharmaceutical industry, and at that time your answer was that you considered it a mistake not to have taken a basket approach to the industry.
我想请问，既然现在估值已经大幅回落，而且医疗支出的增速超过了通胀率，同时这个行业还拥有很深的护城河，您能不能重新谈谈这个问题？
I was wondering if you could revisit the issue now that valuations have contracted so dramatically, and also considering that healthcare spending is outpacing inflation and that there are significant moats in the industry.
我想请您和我们分享一下，您对整个医疗行业的看法。
I was wondering if you could share with us your thoughts on the healthcare industry at large.
M1
M10:39
Charlie 可能比我更适合回答这个问题，但毫无疑问，作为一个行业，医药行业长期以来一直是非常非常好的生意。
Charlie may be better equipped on that than I am, but certainly it's been, as an industry, a very, very good business over time.
我的意思是，如果你把这个行业投入的总资本，和它长期以来赚到的钱放在一起看，它一直都是一门非常非常好的生意。
I mean, if you take the aggregate capital in it and what it's earned over time, it's, it's, it's been a very, a very good business.
而且我们确实犯了一个错误。
And we did make a mistake.
你的记忆百分之百准确。我们在以前的股东大会上说过，我们本来应该采取一篮子投资的方式。
Your memory is 100% accurate, and what we said at earlier meetings, because we should have taken a basket approach.
我们实际上确实买过一点点，真的只有一点点，但这几乎比完全不买还糟。
We actually did buy a tiny, tiny bit, but that's worse than buying none almost.
我的意思是，回想 1993 年那时候，真让人恼火。
I mean, it's just aggravating, uh, back there in '93.
毫无疑问，这类企业，从行业整体来看，是我们能够理解的。
It certainly they're certainly the kind of businesses that as an industry we can understand.
但我们对具体某家公司不会有特别深的洞察，所以如果我们要投资，更倾向于从整个行业的角度来做。
We would not have great insights on specific companies, so if we did something, we would be more inclined to do it on an industry-wide basis.
要评估这些公司中的单个企业，是很难的。
It's hard to evaluate the individual companies.
你也知道，Bristol-Myers 最近就栽了个大跟头，甚至连 Merck 的股价也跌了回来。
As you know, Bristol-Myers has recently had a big stumble, and even Merck has fallen back.
所以，挑出赢家很难，但这并不是不应该对整个行业采取一篮子投资方式的理由。
And so it's hard to pick the winners, but that's no reason not to have a basket approach to the industry.
如果估值达到某个水平，这会是我们认真考虑的事情；而且如果真的出现这种机会，我们可以投入相当多的钱，这对我们来说又是一个优点。
And at some valuation level, it would be something we would think very hard about, and it's something where we could put quite a bit of money if it happened, which is another plus to us.
M2
M21:52
不过，上一次我们没能做对，所以下一次我们大概也还是做不对。
Well, having failed to get it right the last time, we'll probably fail to get it right the next time.
M1
M12:02
我不知道他午饭吃了什么。
I don't know what he had for lunch.
好，我们来回答第一个问题。
Okay, we'll go to number one.