M20:49
对，这是个很有意思的问题，我们就先从后面那个问题开始倒着说。
Yeah, it's an interesting question, and we'll start—we'll go in reverse order.
很多人一提到 A.W.
Many people think of A.W.
Jones，就会想到他曾经是 Fortune 的作者，后来在大概六十年代初，或者差不多那个时候，也许甚至是五十年代末，创立了最知名的 hedge fund。
Jones, who was a Fortune writer at one time, and who developed the best-known hedge fund whenever it was, in the early '60s or thereabouts, maybe the late '50s even.
对现场部分听众来说，A.W.
And for the rest—for some of the audience, the idea originally with A.W.
Jones 当初的想法是，他们会大致等量地做多和做空，做成一个 market-neutral fund，这样市场不管往哪个方向走都没关系。
Jones is that they would go long and short more or less equal amounts and have a market-neutral fund so that it didn't make any difference which way the market went.
不过随着时间推移，他们其实并没有一直坚持这一点，我甚至也不确定 A.W.
They didn't really stick with that over time, and I'm not even sure whether A.W.
Jones 当年是不是说过他们会一直这么做。
Jones said that they would.
但是，呃，你知道，他们有时候会是一百四十 percent 做多、八十 percent 做空，这样净敞口就是六十 percent 做多，或者别的类似水平。
But, uh, they, you know, sometimes they'd be 140% long and 80% short, so they'd have a 60% net long, or whatever it might be.
他们在那段时期里并不是始终 market-neutral，但他们的操作理论确实是：做多那些看起来被低估的股票，做空那些被高估的股票。
They had—they were not market-neutral throughout the period, but they did operate on the theory of being long stocks that seemed underpriced and short stocks that were overpriced.
就连 Federal Reserve，在几年前针对 Long-Term Capital Management 事件出的一份报告里，也把 A.W.
Even the Federal Reserve, in a report they made on the Long-Term Capital Management situation a few years ago, credited A.W.
Jones 说成是这种 hedge fund 理论的某种奠基人。
Jones with being sort of the father of this theory of hedge funds.
如果 Mickey Newman 现在还在场的话，他会知道，我记得是在一九二四年，Ben Graham 就设立了 Benjamin Graham Fund，设计思路完全就是这样，甚至还用了 paired securities。
As Mickey Newman, if he's still here, knows, I think it was in 1924 that Ben Graham set up the Benjamin Graham Fund, which was designed exactly along those lines and which even used paired securities.
也就是说，他会去看 General Motors 和 Chrysler，然后判断哪一家相对于另一家被低估了，于是做多其中一家、做空另一家。
In other words, he would look at General Motors and Chrysler and decide which he thought was undervalued relative to the other and go long one and short the other.
所以这个思路——而且他也是按利润提成收费——它已经具备了今天 hedge funds 的所有要素。
So the idea—and he was paid a percentage of the profits, and it had all the elements of today's hedge funds.
只不过那是在一九二四年就开始了。
Except it was started in 1924.
我不知道 Ben 在这件事上是不是第一个，但我知道，他比 Federal Reserve 认定的那个“第一人”早了三十年；而且很多人到现在还在说那个才是第一个——A.W.
And I don't know that Ben was the first on that, but I know that he was 30 years ahead of the one that the Federal Reserve credited with being the first, and that many people still talk about as being the first—A.W.
Jones。
Jones.
Ben 发现这种做法并不算特别成功，呃，他自己也写过一些，谈到这种方法里他遇到的问题。
Ben did not find that particularly successful, uh, and he even wrote about it some in terms of the problems he encountered with that approach.
按我的记忆，其中相当高比例的 paired investments 最终结果其实是不错的。
And my memory is that a quite high percentage of the paired investments worked out well.
他判断对了。
He was right.
那个被低估的涨上去了，而那个被高估的——或者说两者之间的价差缩小了。
The undervalued one went up and the overvalued— or the spread between the two narrowed.
但四次里头总有那么一次，或者不管具体是多少次吧，他一旦看错，亏的钱会比另外那三次看对时平均赚到的钱多得多。
But the one time out of 4, or whatever it was, that he was wrong, lost a lot more money than the average of the 3 that he was right on.
你知道，我只能说，我这辈子也做空过股票，一九五四年还有过一次特别惊险的经历。
And you know, all I can say is that I've shorted stocks in my life and had one particularly harrowing experience in 1954.
而且我——我没法——我几乎想不出有什么情况，是从十年后回头看我判断错了；但我倒是能想到一些情况，从十周后的角度看，我肯定是错了，而偏偏那个时间段才是关键；在那段时间里，我的净资产在蒸发，我的流动资产也变得越来越不流动，诸如此类。
And I have— I can't— I can hardly think of a situation where I was wrong if viewed from 10 years later, but I can think of some ones where I was certainly wrong from the view of 10 weeks later, which happened to be the relevant period, and during which my net worth was evaporating and my liquid assets were getting less liquid and so on.
所以——我只能告诉你，这非常难。
So, it's— all I can tell you is it's very difficult.
当然，这件事有意思的地方在于，A.W. Jones 在六十年代末可是个大红人。
And the interesting thing about it, of course, is A.W. Jones was a darling of the late 1960s.
Jones 在六十年代末是个大红人。
Jones was a darling of the late 1960s.
Carol Loomis 今天也在这儿，她写过一篇文章，题目叫《The Jones Nobody Keeps Up With》。
And Carol Loomis is here, and she wrote an article called The Jones Nobody Keeps Up With.
那是一篇非常有意思的文章，但一九七九年的时候，已经没人写关于 A.W. Jones 的文章了——当时根本没人写。
And it's a very interesting article, but nobody's writing articles— nobody was writing articles about A.W. Jones in 1979.
一九七九年的 Jones。
Jones in 1979.
我的意思是，肯定是哪里出了问题，而且他的机构后来还分拆出了不少人。
I mean, something went wrong, and there were spin-offs from his operation.
Carl Jones 就是从他的机构里分出来的。
Carl Jones spun off from his operation.
Dick Radcliffe 也是从他的机构里分出来的。
Dick Radcliffe spun off from his operation.
他们——你可以一路把名单列下去，而在那么多那么多离开的人里，他们当中有非常高的比例最后都垮掉了。
They were— you can go down the list, and out of many, many, many that left, they— a very high percentage of them bit the dust.
里面甚至包括自杀、去开出租车、后来另找工作，什么情况都有。
Including suicides, cab drivers, subsequent employment, the whole thing.
这些人——六十年代末还出过一本书，里面有很多他们的照片。
And these people were— there was a book written in the late '60s, had a lot of pictures in it.
我不记得那本书叫什么了，但里面登了所有这些人的肖像，这些人在 hedge fund 行业里当时都非常成功。
I don't remember the name of it, but it showed all these portraits of all these people that were highly successful in the hedge fund business.
但他们后来可没出第二版。
But they didn't bring out a second edition.
所以，这事就是很难。
So, it's just tough.
从逻辑上说，它本来应该是个很好用的策略，但这里面的数学问题在于——你没法大量做空某个东西。
Logically, it should work well, but the math of only— you can't short a lot of something.
只要你有钱，买可以一直买下去。
You can buy till the cows come home if you got the money.
如果有需要，你甚至可以把整家公司都买下来，但你没法把整家公司都做空。
You can buy the whole company if you need to, but you can't short the whole company.
有个叫 Robert Wilson 的人，关于他有一些挺有意思的故事。
A fellow named Robert Wilson, there's some interesting stories about.
他是个非常非常聪明的人，有一次他去亚洲旅行，当时手里还做空着——我想是 Resorts International，或者也可能是 Mary Carter Paint，那家公司当年还是那个名字。
He's a very, very smart guy, and he took a trip to Asia one time being short— I think it was Resorts International, or maybe it was Mary Carter Paint, it was still called in those days.
结果他还没回到美国，就已经亏了很多钱。
And he lost a lot of money before he got back to this country.
他是个非常聪明的人，靠做空股票赚了很多钱，但这种事只要来一次就可能要你的命，而且股价越涨，你就越需要更多的钱。
He's a very smart guy, made a lot of money shorting stocks, but it just takes one to kill you, and, and you need more and more money as the stock goes up.
可如果一只股票下跌，而你当初是全款买的、不是用保证金买的，那你就不需要不断再补更多的钱。
You don't need more and more money when a stock goes down if you paid for it originally and didn't buy it on margin.
你只需要坐着，看看最后自己到底是对还是错。
You just sit and find out whether you were right or not.
但如果你是在做空一只股票，你可不一定能坐得住，等到最后看自己到底对不对。
But you can't necessarily sit and find out whether you're right on being short a stock.