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2004年股东大会 · 为什么巴菲特不喜欢对冲基金?

34 段 · 3 位说话人 · 原片 4:19
M1
M10:00

大家下午好。

Good afternoon.

我是来自墨西哥 Mexico City 的 Manuel Fernandez。我想感谢你们,给了我们很多关于如何成为好合伙人的宝贵经验,也感谢你们把一些好的想法和原则免费传播到全世界。

I'm Manuel Fernandez from Mexico City, Mexico, and I want to thank you for your valuable lessons on how to be good partners and for exporting some good ideas and principles to the world for free.

我的问题很简单:你们觉得,个人投资者把自己一部分资金投到 hedge funds,或者 fund of hedge funds 里,有没有道理?有点像 Berkshire 投给 ValueCap 的那六亿美元投资。

My simple question is, do you think it makes sense for individual investors to invest a part of their capital in hedge funds or funds of hedge funds, somewhat like the $600 million investment Berkshire made in ValueCap?
M2
M20:32

对,我会这么说:现在整体上投进 hedge funds 的人,最后大概率会失望。

Yeah, I would say that people that are now investing in hedge funds in aggregate are going to be disappointed.

你不会因为自己在管理一个叫 hedge fund 的东西,或者叫 private equity 的东西,或者叫什么 LBO fund,就突然变得更聪明。

You don't get smarter because you're running, uh, something called a hedge fund or something called private equity or something, you know, called anything, uh, an LBO fund.

不过你确实会周期性地获得一种能力,那就是把这些东西包装起来卖出去。

But what you do gain periodically is the ability to merchandise those things.

我的意思是,Wall Street 是会有时尚和风潮的,而 Wall Street 会卖它能卖得出去的东西。

I mean, there are fads in Wall Street, and Wall Street will sell what it can sell.

这一点你们一定要记住。

Just remember that.

你知道,这句话可能跟上面那位先生引用的那句话一样有道理。

You know, that may be as good as what the fellow quoted up in the upper levels there.

而 hedge fund 现在正处在一股风潮当中。

And the hedge fund, uh, it right now is in the midst of a fad.

它之所以显得与众不同,不一定——不,不,不是因为它更有能力赚更多钱。

It's distinguished not necessarily—not, not, not by the ability to make more money.

它真正与众不同的地方,在于它收取了高得惊人的费用。

It's distinguished by the extraordinary amount of fees that are collected.

相信我,如果全世界这六千亿美元的资金都在支付百分之二的管理费,再加上一部分利润分成,而亏钱的人会消失,赚钱的人会继续做一阵子并把钱落袋为安,那么从整体上看,这对投资者绝不会是什么美好的经历。

And believe me, if the world on $600 billion of money is paying 2% fees and a percentage of the profits, and the losers go out of existence and the winners continue for a while and take money off the table, it is not going to be a great experience in aggregate for investors.

当然,外面确实有少数聪明又诚实的人在管理这些基金,他们会做得相当不错。

There obviously are a few smart, honest people out there running funds, and they will do quite well.

但如果你是一揽子地去买这一类基金,在我看来,结果会很糟。

But if you buy them across the board, in my view, you're going to get a bad result.
M3
M31:53

Charlie?

Charlie?

对啊,你为什么要跟一个基本思路大概是这样的人一起投资呢?

Yeah, why would you want to invest with a guy whose basic thought process runs something like this?

如果在第一层已经很可观的费用之上,再加第二层费用,对投资者是好事,那第三层费用岂不是更好了?

If a second layer of fees on top of a first layer of substantial fees is good for an investor, then a third layer of fees must be better yet.

面对这种主张,你为什么还要跟这种人投资?

Why would you invest with somebody with a proposition like that?
M2
M22:20

这就是那种先拿百分之二,嗯,然后上面再层层加码拿分成的思路。

It's just the idea of taking 2%, you know, plus percentages on top of that.

我是说,这反映出来的——你知道,这也许就是市场能承受多少就收多少,有点 Collis P. Huntington 那种风格——但这反映的是一种对待他人的态度。而我们通常把这些人看成是合伙人、投资者。呃,我就是觉得,这种安排从根本上说是不公平的,我不喜欢掺和进去。

I mean, that reflects, you know, it may be what the traffic can bear, you know, Collis P. Huntington style, but that reflects an attitude toward people that we tend to regard as partners, investors. Uh, I just, I think it's a basically unfair type of arrangement, and I don't like getting in.

总的来说,我觉得跟那些提出不公平安排的人合作,是个错误。

In general, I think it's a mistake to get in with people who propose unfair arrangements.

你知道,实际上,他们一开始拿的费用大概就已经是标准费用的四倍了,然后在这基础上还说,我们还要再分一杯羹。

That, uh, you know, they, in effect, they're probably getting 4 times standard fees to begin with, and then on top of that, they say, we want part of the action.

而且我猜,很多这种情况下,他们并没有把自己全部的钱都放在基金里面。

And I would guess in many of those cases that they don't have all of their own money in the fund themselves.

也许他们在外面还留了相当大一笔钱。

Maybe they have a substantial sum outside.

Charlie 和我在六十年代、五十年代都管理过 partnership,我后来一直做到七十年代,他那边也是,通常也都会被归类成 hedge funds。

Charlie and I both ran partnerships in the '60s and '50s, with me into the '70s, with him, that would generally be classified as hedge funds.

我们的报酬安排在某种程度上有点类似,虽然不像现在这样。

They had the compensation arrangements somewhat similar, although not like they are now.

我们确实做过一些——确实有一些相似之处,但我不觉得,呃,我不觉得我们对那些想加入我们的人,会像现在这些管理人那样抱着那种态度。

And we did some—they had some similarities, but I don't think, uh, I don't think we had quite the attitude toward the people that were asking to join us, uh, that the present managers have.

就像 Charlie 说的,尤其是那种 fund-of-funds 的东西。

It's, as Charlie said, the fund-of-funds type stuff.

我的意思是,这真的有点让人难以置信,就是一层又一层地往成本上叠。

I mean, it's really sort of unbelievable, just piling on layer after layer on costs.

这并不会让他们买入这些股票背后的那些公司变得更好。

It doesn't make the companies that are underlying these stocks they buy any better.

我的意思是,而且相信我,人不会因为走进某间办公室,门上写着 hedge fund,就一下子变成天才。

I mean, and believe me, people don't become a genius just because you walk into some office and it says hedge fund on the door.

我的意思是,他们真正可能很擅长的,是 marketing。

I mean, what they may be very good at is marketing.

事实上,如果他们很擅长 marketing,那他们别的什么都不用擅长。

In fact, if they're good at marketing, they don't have to be good at anything else.