M1
M10:00
大家下午好。
Good afternoon.
我叫 Jamie Harmon，来自 Boston。
My name is Jamie Harmon and I'm from Boston.
您说，公司只有在每花出去一美元资本支出，能够创造出超过一美元的市场价值时，才应该这么花。
You say that companies should only spend $1 on capital expenditures if it will create more than $1 of market value.
我想问的是，这个要怎么判断呢？
I'm wondering, how do you determine this?
是根据 A，历史上的资本回报率；B，对公司竞争地位的定性判断；C，对资本回报率的定量预测；还是 D，别的什么因素？
Is it based on A, historical returns on capital; B, a qualitative judgment of the company's competitive position; C, a quantitative projection of the returns on capital; or D, something else?
M2
M20:28
对。
Yeah.
我们可以说，到目前为止，我们留存下来的每一美元都是值得的，因为总体来看，这些钱都创造出了超过一美元的市场价值。
We can say, to date, every dollar we've retained has been worthwhile because, on balance, those dollars have produced more than a dollar of market value.
其实现在你对很多公司也都可以这么说，因为事情的发展结果都非常好。
And it's actually with a great many companies you could say that now because things have turned out so well.
这个事情要这样看——对它的检验是，经过三年或者四年以后，如果你发现我们留存下来的这些钱，并没有创造出比这更多的价值，那这时候就会形成一个非常强的判断：我们应该开始把钱分出去。
It would be a case—the check on it is over every—if after 3 or 4 years you found that the dollars we've retained haven't created more than that in value, then the presumption becomes very strong at that point that we should start paying out money.
但几乎任何想要留存资金的管理层，都会为这件事找出一套理由。
But almost any management that wants to retain money is going to rationalize it.
他们会说，我们会拿这些留存下来的钱去做很棒的事情。
By saying we're going to do wonderful things with the money we retain.
而且，而且我们认为这里应该有一些检验机制，这也就是为什么我在报告里、在那些基本原则里，建议要去检验这些预测到底是不是站得住脚。
And, and we think there should be checks on that, which is why in the report, in the ground rules, I suggest making checks on the validity of those projections.
Charlie 和我，如果你今天问我们，今天从利润里留存下来的这一美元，我们现在手上是不是就有一个用途，能让它创造出超过一美元的价值，答案是没有。
Charlie and I, if you asked us today whether the single dollar we retain from the earnings today we've got a use for today that will produce more than a dollar of value, the answer is no.
但我们确实认为，根据历史来看，未来几年里我们会有机会做到这一点的可能性，高于百分之五十，而且是远远高于百分之五十。
We do think that based on history, that the prospects are better than 50%, well over 50%, that in the next few years we would have an opportunity to do that.
但这并没有确定性。
But there's no certainty to it.
Charlie？
Charlie?
没有更多要补充的。
Nothing more.
好。
Okay.
请第一区。
Area 1, please.
Charlie？
Charlie?