M10:00
我上网想为这次做点准备，我就试着——如果你翻到下一张幻灯片的话——我试着去查，一七九零年，也就是一七八九年，我们这个起点的时候，这个国家的财富到底是多少。
I went to the internet trying to prepare for this, and I tried— if you'll move to the next slide— I tried to, uh, find out what was the wealth of the country in 1790— 1789, our starting point.
我就在里面输入了 United States wealth。
And I punched in United States wealth.
我试了一七八九，也试了一七九零。
I tried 1789, tried 1790.
我想着整年份查起来可能会稍微容易一点。
I thought it might be a little easier in terms of a round year.
然后，嗯，我记得大概跳出来四百万条左右的结果。
And, uh, I think 4 million or so references came up.
我当然没把这四百万条全看完，不过我可以告诉你，在早期那个年代，很多很多方面的数据收集，嗯，跟今天完全不是一个样。
And I didn't look at all 4 million, but I can tell you the data collection in those early days on many, many fronts, uh, was not anything like today.
嗯，你其实真的找不到那种我认为，嗯，靠谱的数据。
Uh, you really can't, uh, you can't find what I would consider, uh, reliable figures.
你倒是能查到这个国家当时有多少头骡子，诸如此类的一些东西，然后试着把它们加总起来；但是说到房地产，嗯，你知道，你看的是房子、公寓楼或者办公楼，它们彼此都多少有点不一样，不过，嗯，还是会去参考可比成交。
You can, you can find out how many mules there were in the country and a few things like that and trying to add them up, but, but in real estate, uh, you know, when you're looking at houses or apartment houses or office buildings that, uh, you know, they're, they're each slightly different than each other, but, uh, but they look to comparable sales.
所以，嗯，嗯，很难找到有很多国家被卖过，嗯，嗯，而且它们的财富还被估算过。不过回头想想一八零三年那件事还是挺有意思的——我们花了一千五百万美元，完成了 Louisiana Purchase。
So, uh, uh, it's hard to find a lot of countries that have been sold, uh, uh, where the wealth has been, uh, uh, estimated. But it was interesting to go back and think about the fact that in 1803 we purchased for $15 million, uh, we made the Louisiana Purchase.
这当然比一七八九年晚一点，但按房地产里的说法，那就是最好的 comp 了。
Now that's a little later than 1789, but, but that's the, that's the best comp, as they say in real estate.
至少就土地面积来说，这是我们能找到的最好的 comp。
That's the best comp we could find for land mass anyway.
而且，嗯，我们做这笔购买的时候，顺带一提，那相当于八十多万平方英里——差不多是现在美国本土四十八州面积的四分之一。
And, uh, when we made that purchase, that was equal incidentally to about 800,000-plus square miles— but it was about a quarter of what the lower 48 states now contain.
所以，一八零三年我们用这一千五百万美元，买下了美国本土四十八州大约四分之一的土地。
So we bought about a quarter of the lower 48 for this $15 million back in 1803.
如果你住在 Texas，嗯，你的祖父快不行了，把孙子孙女、孩子们都叫到身边，他临终前最后的话总是，不要卖掉矿权。
And if you, if you live in Texas, uh, and your grandfather, uh, is close to dying and he calls the grandchildren, children around him, in his final words he always says, don't sell the mineral rights.
而法国人在那笔一千五百万美元的交易里，也把矿权一并卖给了我们。
Well, the French sold us the mineral rights on that $15 million deal as well.
所以我们，算是把那整整一大片地方都拿下来了。
So we, we got, uh, that whole strip there.
我们得到了整个 Kansas，还有基本上整个 Oklahoma，而这些地方后来为我们产出了二百一十亿桶石油，还有大量天然气。
We got all of Kansas and essentially all of Oklahoma, and they produced 21 billion barrels of oil for us, a lot of natural gas.
都是在那次购买之后产出的。
Since the purchase.
嗯，这里面还有个旁枝小故事，就是我们为 Louisiana Purchase 付那一千五百万美元的时候，
Uh, one of the sidelights is that we paid our $15 million for the Louisiana Purchase.
其中有三百万美元，也就是百分之二十，是用二十万盎司黄金支付的，按每盎司十五美元计价。
We paid $3 million of it, 20% of it we paid with a— with 200,000 ounces of gold valued at $15 an ounce.
而且，嗯，法国人拿走的那三百万美元——嗯，South Dakota 也是 Louisiana Purchase 的一部分，那里的 Homestake Mine 在关闭之前，产出了远远超过四千万盎司的黄金。
And, uh, that $3 million that the French took and— uh, we got South Dakota as part of the Louisiana Purchase, and the Homestake Mine up there, uh, before it closed, produced well over 40 million ounces of gold.
嗯，四千万盎司黄金，嗯，按价值算大概是六百亿美元。嗯，就像我说的，我们当年只用了二十万盎司黄金，就支付了购买价的百分之二十。
And, uh, 40 million ounces of gold, and, uh, comes to about $60 billion worth, uh, and, uh, uh, like I say, we— 200,000 ounces took care of 20, uh, 20% of our purchase price.
所以 Louisiana Purchase 真是笔便宜买卖，不过我想，那在当时大概就是八十万平方英里的市场价格吧，嗯，折下来每英亩三美分。
So the Louisiana Purchase was a bargain, but it's what the going price was for 800,000 square miles, I guess, at the time, and, uh, 3 cents an acre.
所以我就拿这些各种各样的数字反复琢磨，最后觉得，把它作为对一七八九年这个国家价值的一个合理估计的话，嗯，
And so I decided by playing around with various numbers such as that, that as a reasonable estimate of the worth of the country, uh, in 1789.
十亿美元并不是个离谱的数字。
A billion was not a crazy figure.
如果我是个学者之类的人，我可能会写成十一亿零七百四十万美元之类的，或者——嗯，我会把它弄得看起来更像那么回事。
Now, if I'd been an academician or something, I would have put $1,107,400,000 or something like that, or I— it's, uh, I would have made it look respectable.
但这其实就是个大胆估算，不过，嗯，也不算离谱。
But it's a wild guess, but it's not, uh, it's not a crazy figure.