2014年股东大会 · 如何找到自己真正喜欢的事情 — 文稿

M10:00

Buffett 先生，Munger 先生，你们好，我叫 Nicholas Erdenberger。

Mr. Buffett, Mr. Munger, my name is Nicholas Erdenberger.

我来自美丽的花园州 New Jersey。

I hail from the beautiful Garden State of New Jersey.

我想——我想这个问题——

And I guess the— I guess the question—.

M20:11

掌声太热烈了。

With all your applause.

M10:16

所以我想，这算是对前一个问题的一个追问。

So I guess this is a follow-up question to the question before.

我非常认同一个观点，就是不要投资你没法完全理解的行业。

I really connect with the idea of not investing in industries you can't fully understand.

像我这样的年轻人，写代码的能力有限，也不会造机器人，所以 tech 肯定不是我能完全理解的行业。

Being a young guy who has limited ability to code and who can't build robots, tech is certainly not an industry I fully understand.

但现在，对于大家、尤其是我这个年龄的人来说，entrepreneurship 这个概念几乎已经和 tech 画等号了。

And yet these days, the concept of entrepreneurship is nearly synonymous with tech amongst people, amongst people my age.

所以我想问您，Buffett 先生，如果您现在二十三岁，而且有创业倾向，您会在哪个非 tech 行业创业？为什么？

So my question to you, Mr. Buffett, is if you were 23 years old with entrepreneurial tendencies, what non-tech industry would you start a business in and why?

M20:55

我大概会做我二十三岁时正在做的事。

I'd probably do just what I did when I was 23.

就是，你知道，我会进入投资这个行业，我会研究很多公司，也会去和很多人交流，然后尽可能从他们那里学习不同行业的情况。

The, you know, I would go into the investment business, and I would look at lots of companies, and I would go and talk to lots of people, and I would try to learn from them what I could about different industries.

我二十三岁的时候做过一件事，如果我对煤炭行业感兴趣，我就会去见八家到十家煤炭公司的 CEO。

One thing I did when I was 23, if I got interested in the coal business, I would go out and see the CEOs of 8 or 10 coal companies.

有意思的是，我通常都不会提前预约什么的。

And the interesting thing was I never made appointments usually or anything.

我就是直接上门。

I just dropped in.

不过他们会觉得，一个从 Omaha 来、长得像我这样的人，应该也没什么危害，所以他们总是会见我。

But they felt a fellow from Omaha who looked like me couldn't be too harmful, so they'd always see me.

然后我会问他们很多问题。

And I would ask them a lot of questions.

不过有两个问题，是我最后一定会问的。

But one question I'd always ask them, 2 questions at the end.

我会问他们，如果必须把自己所有的钱投进一家煤炭公司，但不能投自己的公司，而且要放上十年、这期间还不能改，他们会选哪一家，为什么？

I would ask them if they had to put all of their money into any coal company except their own and go away for 10 years and couldn't change it, which one would it be and why?

然后，等他们回答完这个问题，我还会接着问：如果这个安排里还要求他们再用等额的钱去做空一家煤炭公司，他们会选哪一家，为什么？

And then I would say, after I got an answer to that, I would say, and if it was part of that deal, they had to sell short an equivalent amount of money in one coal company, which would it be and why?

如果我把煤炭行业里的人都这样问一圈，那我对这些煤炭公司的经济层面的了解，可能会比任何一个经理人都更多。

And if I went around and talked to everybody in the coal business about that, I would know more about the coal companies from an economic standpoint than any one of those managers probably would.

所以我觉得，学习商业有很多种办法。

So I think there's lots of ways to learn about business.

用这种方式，你学不会怎么再创办一个 Facebook 或者 Google，但你可以学到很多关于公司经济特性的东西。

You're not gonna learn how to start another Facebook or Google that way, but you can, you can learn a lot about the economic characteristics of companies.

通过阅读，通过和人直接接触。

By reading, personal contact.

不过你确实得有——你得对这件事有真正的好奇心。

You do have to have, you have to have a real curiosity about it.

我的意思是，我不觉得你能因为你妈妈叫你这么做，或者类似这种原因，就把这件事做好。

I mean, I don't think you can do it because your mother's telling you to do it or something of the sort.

我觉得，是的，你真的——这件事必须得让你非常来劲。

I think, yeah, you really, it really has to turn you on.

我的意思是，还有什么能比向煤炭公司提问题更让人来劲呢？

And I mean, what could turn you on more than asking questions about coal companies?

对，可能也会显得有点怪，不过我会这么做。

Yeah, it'd maybe be a little odd too, but that's what I would do.

而且在这个过程中，我也许会发现某个让我特别感兴趣的行业。

And I might, in the process of doing that, find some industry that particularly interested me.

对我来说，那个行业就是保险业。

In my case, the insurance industry did.

这样一来，你可能会变得准备得非常充分，甚至也许都能自己开一家保险公司了；但更现实一点说，至少你能挑出一家最合乎逻辑、最值得去工作的公司。

And you might become very well equipped, even perhaps to start your own insurance company, but perhaps to pick the most logical one to go to work for.

如果你就这么不断学习各种东西，总会有一天出现某件事，让你发现它特别有用、特别值得去做。

If you just keep learning things, something will come along that you'll find extremely useful to do.

我的意思是，不过你得对这些可能性保持开放。

I mean, but you've got to be open to it.

Charlie？

Charlie?

M33:36

嗯，你可以试试 Larry Bird 当年想找一个 agent 替他谈新合同时用的那个办法的一个版本。

Well, you might try a version of the trick that Larry Bird used when he wanted an agent to negotiate his new contract.

他去问每一位 agent，为什么应该选你；如果不选你，那你会推荐谁。

He asked every agent why he should be selected, and if he was not going to be selected, whom the agent would recommend.

结果因为每个人推荐的第二人选都是同一个人，Larry Bird 就直接雇了他，然后谈成了历史上最好的合同。

And since everybody recommended the same number 2 choice, Larry Bird just hired him and negotiated the best contract in history.

这里头有个——嗯，大家会用的办法其实有很多。

There's a— well, there are a lot of tricks that people use.

M24:03

其实我们当年在 Salomon 也干过一样的事。

We did the same thing at Salomon, actually.

那是个周六早上，我打电话的时候，你也在那儿，Charlie，是吧？

It was a Saturday morning when I called, and you were there, Charlie, weren't you?

M34:10

对，我在。

Yeah, I was there.

M24:10

没错。

Sure.

我打电话叫来了，我记不清是八个还是十个经理。

I called in, I don't know whether it was 8 or 10 of the managers.

我是周五下午刚到那儿的，转眼到了周六早上，而我们必须在

I'd just gotten in there on Friday afternoon, and now it's Saturday morning, and we had to open for business

东京时间周日晚上开门营业，所以我得赶紧找个人来管这个地方。

Sunday night in Tokyo, and I had to have somebody to run the place.

所以我把八个人都叫来，然后我说，除了你自己之外，谁会是管理这里的最佳人选，为什么？

So I called in 8 people and I said, you know, who besides you would be the ideal person to run this and why?

有一个人跟我说，根本没人能跟他比。

One guy told me that there was nobody compared to him.

几个月之内他就离开公司了，不过这个——这个办法其实不坏。

He was gone from the firm within a few months, but the— it's not a bad system to use.

你真的能光靠提问就学到很多东西。

You can really learn a lot just by asking.

我的意思是，这话听起来有点像 Yogi Berra 的一句名言之类的，但这的的确确是真的：如果你去跟足够多的人聊一件他们懂一点的事，而人们又都喜欢说话，你知道的——你看，我们现在不就在这儿说个不停嘛。

I mean, it's starting to sound a little bit like a Yogi Berra quote or something, but it is literally true that if you talk to enough people about something they know something about, and people like to talk, you know, and, you know, here we are talking ourselves.

你只要愿意保持开放，你就会找到属于你的位置。

And you just have to be open to it, and you will find your spot.

你可能不是第一天、第一周，或者第一个月就能找到，但你最终会找到真正让你着迷的东西。

You may not find it the first day or the week or month, but you'll find what fascinates you.

我算是很幸运，因为我在七八岁的时候就找到了真正让我着迷的东西；不过，你知道，有些人四五岁的时候就发现自己对 chess 或者 music 特别着迷。

I was very lucky because I found what fascinated me when I was 7 or 8 years of age, but, you know, some people find chess or music, you know, fascinates them when they're 4 or 5.

如果你运气好，你会很早就找到；有时候会花更长时间，但你终究会找到。

If you're lucky, you find it early, and sometimes it takes you longer, but you'll find it.

M35:50

如果那是一个竞争特别激烈的行业，而且很明显它需要的素质恰好是你没有的，那大概就应该避开。

If it's a very competitive business and it plainly requires qualities that you lack, it should probably be avoided.

我在 Caltech 的时候，学过 thermodynamics，那门课是 Homer Joe Stewart 教的，他是个天才。

When I was at Caltech, I took thermodynamics, and Homer Joe Stewart, who was a genius, taught the course.

我当时看得非常清楚，不管我投入多少时间和努力，都不可能把我变成 Homer Joe Stewart 那样的人。

And it was perfectly apparent to me that no amount of time or effort would turn me into Homer Joe Stewart.

他在天赋上完全、夸张到几乎不可能地比我强太多了，所以我就放弃了。

Who was utterly, impossibly more talented than I could be, so I gave up.

我马上就决定，我不会去尝试成为 Caltech 的 thermodynamics 教授。

I immediately decided I wasn't going to try and be a professor of thermodynamics at Caltech.

类似的判断，我在一个又一个领域里都做过，很快，剩下能走的路也就只有一两个了。

And I've done that with field after field, and pretty soon there was only one or two left.

M26:28

对，对。

Yeah, yeah.

我在体育方面也有过类似的经历。

I had a similar experience in athletics.

好，Becky。

Okay, Becky.