M10:42
嗯，你提了两个很大的问题，不过恐怕你得到的会是很小的答案。
Well, you've asked 2 big questions, but you're going to get very small answers, I'm afraid.
这不是不尊重你，只是我们——我们并没有这方面的判断。
And that's no disrespect, but we just— we don't have that.
我们平时不会太多去想这些事情。
We don't think about those things very much.
我们就是在寻找体面的企业。
We just are looking for decent businesses.
顺便说一句，就算放在过去，我们在这些问题上的看法大概也不会有什么用。
And incidentally, our views in the past wouldn't have been any good on those subjects.
我们会尽量只想两件事。
And we try to think about 2 things.
我们尽量只去想那些重要的事，和那些可以知道的事。
We try to think about things that are important and things that are knowable.
现在，在我们看来，有些事情很重要，但并不可知。
Now, there are things that are important that are not knowable, in our view.
你提的这两个问题，就属于这一类。
Those 2 questions that you raised fall in that.
也有些事情是可以知道的，但并不重要。
There are things that are knowable but not important.
我们不想让这些东西把脑子塞满。
We don't want to clutter our minds up with those.
所以我们会问，什么是重要的，什么是可知的？
So we say, what is important and what is knowable?
然后再看，在同时落在这两类里的事情当中，哪些能够转化成某种对 Berkshire 有用的行动。
And what among the things that fall within those 2 categories can we translate into some kind of an action that is useful for Berkshire?
而且说真的，有各种各样重要的议题，Charlie 和我根本不了解，所以我们也就不去想它们。
And we really— there are all kinds of important subjects that Charlie and I, we don't know anything about, and therefore we don't think about them.
所以，关于未来十年整个世界在商业或者竞争格局上会是什么样，我们当然也有一点看法。
So, we have our view about what the world will look like over the next 10 years in business or competitive situations.
但我们在这方面就是不擅长。
We're just no good.
我们倒是觉得，我们对十年后的 Coca-Cola 会是什么样，或者十年后的 Gillette 会是什么样，或者十年后的 Disney 会是什么样，或者我们一些运营子公司十年后会是什么样，还是知道一些的。
We do think we know something about what Coca-Cola is going to look like in 10 years, or what Gillette's going to look like in 10 years, or what Disney's going to look like in 10 years, or what some of our operating subsidiaries are going to look like in 10 years.
这些我们非常在乎。
We care a lot about that.
这些我们会想很多。
We think a lot about that.
这些我们希望自己判断正确。
We want to be right about that.
如果这些判断对了，那其他那些事，呃，你知道，它们——它们就只是——它们的重要性会低很多。
If we're right about that, the other things get to be, uh, you know, they're, they're just— they're, they're less important.
而且，而且如果我们开始把注意力放在那些事情上，我们就会错过很多真正重大的东西。
And, and if we started focusing on those we would miss a lot of big things.
我以前举过这个例子，Coca-Cola 是在，我想应该是一九一九年上市的，第一年一股是四十美元。
I've used this example before, but Coca-Cola went public in, I think it was, 1919, and the first year one share cost $40.
上市第一年，它跌了百分之五十多一点。
The first year it went down a little over 50%.
到年底的时候，它跌到了十九美元。
At the end of the year, it was down to $19.
当时装瓶商合同出了些问题，糖这边也有问题，各种各样的问题都有。
There were some problems with bottler contracts, there were problems with sugar, various kinds of problems.
如果你当时有完美的预见能力，你会看到世界上最严重的大萧条就在眼前，连社会秩序本身都受到了质疑。
If you'd had perfect foresight, you would have seen the world's greatest depression staring you in the face when the social order even got questioned.
你也会看到第二次世界大战。
You would have seen World War II.
你还会看到 atomic bomb 和 hydrogen bomb。
You would have seen atomic bombs and hydrogen bombs.
你会看到各种各样的事情，而且你总能找到理由，推迟自己为什么不该去买那一股 Coca-Cola。
You would have seen all kinds of things, and you could always find a reason to postpone why you should buy that share of Coca-Cola.
但重要的并不是看见那些。
But the important thing wasn't to see that.
重要的是看见，他们今年每天会卖出十亿份八盎司的饮料，或者说某个非常大的数字；而一个每天能在全球让十亿人次感到开心的公司，照理说也应该能靠这个赚到一些钱。
The important thing was to see that they were going to be selling a billion 8-ounce servings of beverages a day this year, or some large number, and that the person who could make people happy a billion times a day around the globe ought to make a few bucks off doing it.
所以那四十美元，后来跌到十九美元的那笔投资，我想如果把分红再投进去的话，现在肯定已经远远超过五百万美元了。
And so that $40, which went down to $19, I think with dividends reinvested has to be well over $5 million now.
如果你在这些其他问题上形成了一套看法，而那套看法又以任何方式妨碍了你根据这个更重要、更具体、更聚焦的、关于公司未来的判断去行动，那你就会错过——你会错过一段非常精彩的大行情。
And if you developed a view on these other subjects that in any way forestalled you acting on this more important, specific, narrow view about the future of the company, you would have missed—you'd have missed a great ride.
所以这就是我们关注的那类事情。
So that's the kind of thing we focus on.
Charlie？
Charlie?
对，我们不是在预测将来会来什么样的水流，而是不管水流是什么，我们只看有些东西会怎么在这种水流里游。
Yeah, we're not predicting the currents that will come, just how some things will swim in the currents, whatever they are.