M20:32
嗯，他们确实会做一些货币交易，但实际情况是——
Uh, they do certain currency transactions, but as a practical matter.
如果你持有 Coca-Cola，就等于持有一大堆外国债券，这些债券的票息用当地货币计价，而且会一直持续下去。
If you own Coca-Cola, you own a bunch of foreign bonds with coupons on them denominated in local currencies that go on forever.
那么，你是不是应该针对所有这些票息，去做 currency swap 呢？
Now, should you try and engage in currency swaps on all those coupons?
可你现在还不知道这些票息具体是多少，因为你不知道他们在日本或德国会赚多少钱。但你知道这会持续几十年，而且涉及的金额会非常大。
You don't know what those coupons are yet because you don't know how much they're going to earn in Japan or Germany, but you do know it's going to go on for decades, and it's going to be very significant sums.
那你是不是应该做大量的 currency swap，把未来这一连串的现金流全部转换成美元呢？
Should you try and engage in a whole bunch of currency swaps to go on out and convert all that stream into dollars?
我们基本上认为，这么做不值得。
We basically don't think it's worth it.
我们不认为自己对货币的判断有什么优势。
We don't think our opinion on currencies is any good.
我们不认为，或者说，我们觉得市场大概知道这些事情。嗯，我们知道市场对货币的了解至少和我们一样多，可能还比我们多；但我们并不知道比市场更多的货币信息。
We don't think—we think the market probably knows—well, we know it knows as much about them, it probably knows more about currencies, but we do not know more than the market does about currency.
所以，对冲是有成本的。
So there are costs.
也就是，对冲本身有成本。
The hedging.
而且，即使利率结构可能会让远期的曲线看起来比较平，因此实际上没有升水，也还是会有成本，里面确实存在各种成本。
And even though interest rate structures may cause the curve to look flat going out forward, so that in effect there's no contango on it, there's still the cost, there are costs in it.
现在，这个市场相对来说是有效的，所以成本不会特别高。但既然我们认为这基本上是一个百分之五十对百分之五十的选择，我们看不出有什么理由要承担这些成本。
Now, it's a relatively efficient market, so that they're not huge, but we see no reason to incur those costs with what we regard as totally a 50-50 proposition.
而且，实际上，对冲也做不了那么远。
And it really doesn't go out that far anyway.
我的意思是，我们可以做几年的对冲；但如果按照我们理解企业的方式来看，也就是把从现在到世界末日之间未来现金流的折现值算出来，那种风险我们无论如何都没法真正对冲。
I mean, we could do it for a couple of years, but if you take that—the way we look at businesses being the discounted flow of future cash out between now and Judgment Day—we can't really hedge that kind of a risk anyway.
我们可以不断滚动续做对冲，但这会产生成本，而我们不想承担这个成本。
We could keep rolling hedges, but there's a cost to it that we don't want to incur.
我们不会太在意利润中的某一部分究竟是来自 Guinness、Coke 还是 Gillette，也不会太在意这些利润是用德国马克、英镑、日元和美元混合计价，还是全部用美元计价。
We wouldn't worry a whole lot about whether some portion of our earnings, whether it's from Guinness, whether it's from Coke, whether it's from Gillette, are denominated in some mixture of marks and pounds and yen and dollars, or whether they're all in dollars.
如果全部是美元，我们会稍微更喜欢一点；但如果利润来自这样一种多种货币的组合，也不会让我们睡不着觉。
We'd slightly prefer it if it were all in dollars, but we don't lose sleep over the fact that it may be coming from a mix of currencies like that.
当然，如果涉及的是某些非常疲软的货币，我们就不会喜欢了。
We wouldn't like it in terms of, obviously, some very weak currencies.
所以，答案是不做。
So, no.