2005年股东大会 · 巴菲特：我为什么买中石油？因为它便宜到离谱 — 文稿

M10:00

这个周末真是太精彩了。

This weekend has really rocked.

非常感谢。

Thank you very much.

那你到底怎么看 PetroChina？

And really, what is your view on PetroChina?

如果中场休息的时候你走上来，Charlie 和我已经会把这里我们最喜欢的那些都拿走了，剩下的就归你了。

If you come up at the break, Charlie and I will have taken all the pieces out of here that we like best, and you will be you will get the rest.

Charlie，你还有什么要补充的吗？

Charlie, do you have anything to add to that?

M20:23

她想知道你对 PetroChina 是怎么看的。

She wants to know what you think about PetroChina.

M10:33

挺有意思的，我刚才在外面的购物区看到她，我就知道她心里想的是 PetroChina。

It's funny, I saw her out there in the shopping area and I knew that she had PetroChina on her mind.

我们是几年前买入 PetroChina 的，还是一样，看了它的 annual report 之后买的。

We bought PetroChina a few years ago, again after reading the annual report.

同样，幸好那份报告是英文的。

Again, fortunately it was in English.

那是第一只 Chinese stock，实际上到现在也是最后一只。

It was the first stock, Chinese stock, and really the last one.

我的意思是，它不一定会是最后一只。

I mean, it won't necessarily be the last one.

但到目前为止，这是我们唯一持有过的一只。

It's the only one that we've owned so far.

我们当时往里面投了大概四亿美元，而它现在依然生产着全球大约百分之三的石油，这已经是很大的产量了。

We put about $400 million into it at the time, and still it produces about 3% of the world's oil, which is a lot of oil.

它的产量大概相当于 ExxonMobil 的百分之八十左右。

It produces probably 80% or so as much as ExxonMobil does produce.

M21:16

哇。

Wow.

M11:17

而且它是一家规模巨大的公司。

And it's a huge company.

去年它赚了一百二十亿美元。

Last year it earned $12 billion.

如果你去看 Fortune 500 的名单，我猜在美国你都找不出超过大概五家公司，能赚到一百二十亿美元或者更多。

Now, if you look at the Fortune 500 list, my guess is you won't find more than about five companies in the United States that earn $12 billion or more.

所以这是一家，非常重要的大公司。

So it's a, it's a major company.

我们买它的时候，它的总市值是三百五十亿美元。

At the time we bought it, the total market value was $35 billion.

我们买入它的价格，大概是它去年利润的三倍。

We bought it at about three times what it earned last year.

它的杠杆并没有高得不寻常。

It does not have unusual amounts of leverage.

它。

It.

在 annual report 里，他们说了一件事，真正会这么说的公司非常非常少，但我觉得其实相当重要。

In the annual report, they say something which very, very few companies do say, but which I think is actually fairly important.

他们说，他们会把赚到的钱里大概百分之四十五分配出去。

They say they will pay out about 45% of the amount they earn.

所以如果你能用三倍 earnings 的价格买到它，结果后来也确实就是三倍 earnings，而且你能拿到那三十三个百分点里的百分之四十五，你知道，这就相当于你的投资能拿到百分之十五的现金回报率。

So if you can buy it at three times earnings, what turned out to be three times earnings, and you get 45% of 33%, you know, you're getting a 15% cash yield on your investment.

这是一份非常好的 annual report。

It's a very good annual report.

中国政府持有这家公司百分之九十的股份。

The Chinese government owns 90% of the company.

我们持有百分之一点三。

We own 1.3%.

如果我们跟他们一起投票，我们两边就能控制这家公司。

If we vote with them, the two of us control the business.

而且，嗯，这个想法他们还没想到，不过我会一直把这一点指出来。

And that, um, it's a thought that hasn't occurred to them, but I'll keep pointing it out.

不过你知道，这是一门非常重要的生意，而且当时的价格非常非常有吸引力。

But it's, you know, it's, it's a very major business at a very, very attractive - at what was a very attractive price.

不幸的是，政府持有的股份和我们持有的股份在经济利益上是一样的，但分类不一样，所以政府那百分之九十被叫作一种股份，公众持有的那百分之十被叫作 H-shares。

Unfortunately, the government shares and our shares have the same economic interest, but they are classified differently so that the government's 90% are called one thing and the 10% with the public are called H-shares.

而且当我们持有一家公司百分之十的股份时，我们就必须在 Hong Kong 申报，或者说当时是这样，持有一家公司百分之十的股份就要申报。

And we have to report in Hong Kong when we own 10% of a company, or we did then, 10% of a company's shares.

所以很遗憾，这个百分之十的规定只适用于那百分之十的 H-shares，因此我们在只拥有这家公司百分之一经济权益的时候，就不得不披露持股情况了。

So unfortunately, the 10% applied only to the 10% of H-shares, and so we had to reveal our ownership when we only had 1% of the economic interest in the company.

所以我们本来还会买更多，但价格一下子涨上去了。我们很满意自己持有的百分之一点三左右，不管具体是多少，而且我们认为他们在经营这门生意上做得很好。

So we would have bought more, but the price jumped up, and we are happy to have our 1.3% or whatever it is, and we think that they've done a good job in running the business.

他们有大量的天然气储备，现在也开始开发了。

They've got large gas reserves, which they're starting to develop now.

不过这是一家非常大型的企业。

But it's a very major enterprise.

它雇用了将近五十万人。

It employs almost 500,000 people.

有意思的是，几年前，投资圈里可能还只有相对很少的人会想到，PetroChina 就在那里，而且它的业务规模比世界上大多数石油公司都大，除了 BP 和 ExxonMobil 之外，几乎比任何一家都大。

And the interesting thing was, a few years ago, relatively few people in the investment world probably even thought about the fact that PetroChina was over there and was a much larger business than most of the - just about any oil company in the world, except for BP and ExxonMobil.

Charlie，你对此有什么看法吗？

Charlie, do you have any thoughts on that?

M24:01

对啊，要是这种事能一直发生当然很好，但近几年并不是这样。

Yeah, it would be nice if this sort of thing happened all the time, but that hasn't been true in recent years.

M14:09

不过我们从来没有，我得强调一下，我是说，PetroChina 的 annual report，就像我说的那样，很容易读，也看得懂，他们把自己的政策都写得很清楚，任何人都能拿到，你自己就可以去读。

But we never - I should emphasize, I mean, the annual report of PetroChina, which like I say, it's easy to read, understandable, they declare their policies, anybody could get it, you can read it.

我们没有，我们在买这只股票之前并没有专门过去，也从来没有和管理层有过任何接触。

We did not, we did not go over and we never had any contact with the management before we bought the stock.

我们也从来没有参加过什么投资者说明会之类的活动。

We'd never attended an investment investor presentation or anything of the sort.

我的意思是，这些东西就白纸黑字地写在那份任何人都能拿到的报告里。

I mean, it's, it's right there in black and white in a report that anybody can get.

而我们就是坐在办公室里，把这些东西读一读。

And we just sit in the office and, and read those things.

然后我们就投出了四亿美元，现在大概值十二亿美元左右。

And we were able to put $400 million out that's now worth about $1.2 billion or something like that.

当时还有件很有意思的事，我想我没记错的话，当时 Yukos，也就是 Russia 那家大型石油公司，在美国投资圈里可能比 PetroChina 出名得多。

It was interesting at the time - I think I'm right on this - at the time Yukos, which is the big oil company in Russia, uh, was probably far better known among the investment community in the United States than, than PetroChina.

我当时把这两家公司做了比较，然后心里想，我是更愿意把钱放在 Russia，还是放在 China？

And I compared the two at the time, thought to myself, would I rather have the money in Russia or have it in China?

在我看来，PetroChina 要便宜得多，而且我觉得 China 的经济环境很可能会更好。

PetroChina, in my view, was far cheaper, and I felt that the, uh, the economic climate was likely to be better in China.

如果它当时的交易估值倍数和美国本土公司一样，我还会觉得它更有吸引力吗？

Would I have - if it had been selling at the same multiple as a US domestic company, would I have regarded it as more attractive?

不会。

No.

我的意思是，处在一种你并不完全理解的文化环境里，总会有一些劣势，或者税法会变，你的持股规则也可能会变。

I mean, there's some disadvantages always to being in a culture that you don't perfectly understand, or where tax laws can change, your ownership rules can change.

但是在我当时看来，PetroChina 相比其他国际石油公司的那个折价，简直离谱。

But the discount at which PetroChina was selling compared to other international oil companies was, in my view at the time, ridiculous.

所以这就是我们买它的原因。

So that's why we bought it.

另外，休息的时候会给大家提供糖果。

And we will have the candy available for you at the break.

第六个问题。

Number 6.