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1996年股东大会 · 巴菲特点评报纸行业的兴衰

25 段 · 2 位说话人 · 原片 3:16
M1
M10:00

Buffett 先生,我叫 David Lowe,来自 California 的 Ventura。

Mr. Buffett, my name is David Lowe from Ventura, California.

这是我第一次参加 Berkshire 的股东大会,我想说,我对你在这里对股东们的影响力非常感兴趣。

My first Berkshire meeting, and I want to mention that I'm very intrigued at the influence you have over the shareholders here.

我注意到,大厅里最先喝完的饮料是 Cherry Coke。

I note that the first beverage they ran out of in the lobby was Cherry Coke.

我的问题是关于 Buffalo News。

My question is about the Buffalo News.

你在九五年年报的信里说,报纸行业在经济吸引力方面又下降了一个档次。

You say in the letter for the '95 report that the newspaper industry has lost another notch in its economic attractiveness.

你能详细讲讲吗?

Can you elaborate on that?
M2
M20:29

对,你在报纸行业里看到的是一种发行量趋势。就每户家庭订阅报纸的数量来说,这种趋势已经存在很久了,而且一直在下降。至于日报,我得说,过去这两年的趋势在这方面还要更差一些。

Yeah, what you're seeing in newspapers is a circulation trend that has been prevalent for a long time in terms of newspapers per household, but that has been declining, and daily newspapers—and that I would say the trends of the last couple years are somewhat worse in that respect.

我会说,近几年,不管是在发行定价还是广告定价方面,它们的定价能力都稍微减弱了一点。

I would say that the ability to price both at the circulation and advertising level has weakened a bit in recent years.

不是特别明显,但确实弱了一点。

Not dramatically, but it's weakened a bit.

曾经,在那种只有一家报纸的城市里,日报在经济上大概和你能找到的任何生意一样有吸引力。

At one time, daily newspapers in single-newspaper towns were probably as attractive economically as any business you could find.

我的意思是,很大一部分广告主在把它们当作广告媒介时,其实几乎没有别的选择。

I mean, a large percentage of advertisers had very little choice in terms of using them as an advertising medium.

而且,人们想了解身边发生了什么,除了日报之外,可选择的渠道也比较少。

People had less options in the way of learning what was going on around them other than the daily newspaper.

所以,它们一开始就处在一个强得惊人的位置上。

So they started from a position of extraordinary strength.

它们现在依然处在非常强的位置,我在报告里也尽量强调了这一点。

They still have a very strong position, and I've tried to emphasize that in the report.

我的意思是,按它们的售价来说,它们非常划算。

I mean, they are a bargain at the price they sell for.

它们用很低的价格提供各种各样的信息,而且对大多数商家来说,它们也是接触顾客的绝佳方式。不过在很多情况下,它们已经不再拥有十五年或二十年前那种独占性的优势了。

They give you all kinds of information at a very low price, and they're a magnificent way for most merchants to reach their customers, but they do not have the exclusive advantages in many cases that they had 15 or 20 years ago.

第三类邮件现在已经变成了一个更可行的选择。

Third-class mail has become more of an option.

人们获取信息的方式也更多了。

People have more ways of obtaining information.

就像我们前面谈到的,信息现在可以通过电子方式处理和传送,成本比二十年前人们能想象到的低得多。

As we talked earlier, information can be processed electronically and delivered at far lower cost than people dreamt of 20 years ago.

所以,所有这些因素都会一点点侵蚀它们的优势。

So all of those things eat away a little bit.

不过,这仍然是一门非常不错的生意。

It's still a very fine business.

但我看不到有什么东西能扭转这些趋势。

But I don't see anything that will reverse those trends.

我不认为这些趋势一定会加速,但我觉得,如果二十年前你这一辈子唯一拥有的资产,就是一个只有一家报纸的城市里的日报,那么你今天感到的安全感会比当时稍微低一点;不过,即便如此,你的处境仍然会比拥有几乎任何其他生意都要好得多。

I don't think that they will necessarily accelerate, but I think that if the only thing you owned in life was a daily newspaper in a single-newspaper town 20 years ago, you would feel slightly less secure today than you did at that time, but you'd still be a lot better off than owning virtually any other business.

Charlie?

Charlie?

没什么要补充的。

Nothing to add.