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1996年股东大会 · 巴菲特:伯克希尔过去的业绩不可能再重复

14 段 · 2 位说话人 · 原片 1:35
M1
M10:00

我们来看六区,这也是最后一个问题了,因为马上就要到三点了,所以请六区提问。

We'll go to Zone 6, and this is the last question because it's going to be 3 o'clock, so let's have Zone 6.
M2
M20:06

大家好,我叫 Mike Nolan,来自 New Jersey。

Hi, my name is Mike Nolan from New Jersey.

我和我太太从一九八四年起就是股东了,而且一直都很满意。

My wife and I have been shareholders since 1984, and happy ones.

也谢谢你们二位。

Thank you both.

今天有两个问题。

Two questions today.

关于零售行业,考虑到 Berkshire 每股账面价值过去这些年年均百分之二十三的出色增长,以及这个行业过去几年股东权益大约百分之八到百分之九的增长,我们想知道,为什么 Berkshire 会用股票去交换这类证券?因为如果你们今年收购的这些公司的净资产增长水平哪怕接近行业平均,也只有这个数字的三分之一甚至更低。

In the retail store industry, in light of Berkshire's outstanding 23% annual growth in book value per share and the industry's roughly 8 to 9% growth in equity over the last several years, we wonder why would Berkshire exchange stock for securities such as these when the growth in the net worth of the acquired companies, if they're anywhere near the industry average, that you've acquired this year are one-third or less?
M1
M10:42

这两家公司平均的净资产收益率都远远好于你刚才引用的行业数字。

Both of those companies have averaged a lot better returns on equity than the numbers you cite for the industry.

第二点,你知道,我们未来不可能做到百分之二十三点六,所以我们不会拿自己过去的历史水平——如果我们把历史平均回报当成新投资的标准,那我们就什么新投资都做不了了,因为我们不知道未来怎么还能做到百分之二十三点六。

The second point, you know, we have no way of making 23.6% in the future, so we do not use our historic— if we used our historical average as a yardstick for new investments, we would make no new investments because we don't know how to make 23.6% in the future.

不过我们喜欢——我们喜欢——我们认为零售业是个非常难做的行业。

But we like— we like— we regard the retail business as a very tough business.

我们看重的是这些公司的业绩记录、它们的市场地位,还有它们的管理层。

We like the records of those companies, their market positions, and their managements.

当我们找到这样一家企业,而且我们对经营它的人感觉非常放心时,我们就会做这笔交易;但我们不会指望靠这种方式,长期来看还能让我们的资金取得百分之二十三点六的回报。

And when we find a business like that and we feel very comfortable with the people running it, we will make the deal, but we won't expect to make 23.6% on our money over time doing that.

我想感谢大家今天的到来。

I'd like to thank everybody for coming.

你知道,这过去这几天——我过得很开心,也希望你们也是。

You know, we've— I've had a good time the last couple days, and I hope you have.

谢谢。

Thank you.