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1997年股东大会 · 芒格:为何巴菲特的最终成就远超本格雷厄姆

59 段 · 3 位说话人 · 原片 6:16
M1
M10:00

对,你好。

Yes, hi.

你好,我是来自 Canada 多伦多的 Jeff Hall。

Hi, it's Jeff Hall from Toronto, Canada.

Buffett 先生和 Munger 先生,你们两位都对我们,以及我们下一代的人,产生了非常积极的影响。

Mr. Buffett and Mr. Munger, you're both a positive influence on all of us and our generations to come.

在你们刚开始的时候,有几位很重要的人物帮助引导了你们的道路。

There were a few significant individuals that had helped to guide your way in the beginning.

能不能请你们谈一谈,Graham and Dodd 和 Philip Fisher 这两边,对你们现在的投资理念和方法的影响,以及这种演变,各自大概占多少比例?也请分别评论一下。

Could you please share the current percentage of impact and evolution on your investment philosophy and approach between Graham and Dodd versus Philip Fisher, and comment on each, please.
M2
M20:35

Charlie,你要不要——

Charlie, you want to—.
M3
M30:36

如果你那边 California 已经想好怎么算了的话。

If you've got it worked out there, California.
M2
M20:37

Warren,你,呃,你跟——更接近一些。

Warren, you, uh, you were closer to—.
M3
M30:38

你是想精确到百分之零点一,还是百分之零点零一?

You want that to tenths of a percent or hundredths of a percent?
M2
M20:44

你跟,呃,Ben Graham 更接近。

You were closer to, uh, Ben Graham.
M3
M30:47

对,不过 Ben——对,不管有没有另一方,跟着任何一方走,都会发生好事,都会有不错的结果。

Yeah, well, Ben—yeah, things would have happened, good things would have happened with following either party irrespective of the other.

很明显,Graham 对我的影响远远大于 Phil,不过我为 Ben 工作过,也在他门下上过学。而且他——我所说的成功投资背后的三个基本理念,也就是把股票看成企业、对市场保持正确的态度,以及留有安全边际,这些全都直接来自 Graham。

Graham obviously had way more influence on me than Phil, but I worked for Ben, I went to school under him, and his—what I call the three basic ideas that underlie successful investing, which is to look at stocks as businesses and to have the proper attitude toward the market and to operate with a margin of safety, they all come straight from Graham.

这些都不是我自己想出来的。

I didn't think of any of those.

而 Phil Fisher 则更多让我看到了另一种思路,就是努力去找到那种很棒的企业。

And Phil Fisher opened my eyes more to the idea of trying to find the wonderful business.

其实 Charlie 在这方面做得比 Phil 还多,所以你还得把 Charlie 也算进去——不过 Phil 的确一直都在完整地倡导这一套。

Charlie did more of that than Phil did, actually, so you'd have to put Charlie— but Phil was espousing that entirely.

我是在五十年代末或者六十年代初读到他的书的。

And I read his books in the late '50s or early '60s.

所以你知道,我——而且 Phil 现在还健在,你也知道,我确实欠 Phil 很多,但这跟我欠 Graham 的还是没法比。

So, you know, I—and Phil's still alive, as you know, and I, you know, I owe Phil a lot, but it doesn't compare to what I owe Graham.

不过这绝不是在贬低 Phil。

And that in no way reflects poorly on Phil.

Ben 是独一无二的。

Ben was one of a kind.

John?

John?
M2
M22:07

Ben Graham 真的是一个极其了不起的头脑。

Ben Graham was a truly formidable mind.

而且他的写作也非常清晰。

And he also had a clarity in writing.

我们一再谈到,少数几个简单观念一旦被彻底吸收,会有多大的力量。

And we've talked over and over again about the power of a few simple ideas thoroughly assimilated.

这件事就发生在 Graham 的那些理念上,这些理念一部分是我通过 Warren 间接学到的,另外也有一些是直接从 Graham 那里学到的。

And that happened with Graham's ideas, which came to me indirectly through Warren, but also some directly from Graham.

对我来说,很有意思的一点,是看着 Buffett 这个当年的门生。

Interesting thing for me is to watch Buffett, the former protégé.

顺便说一句,在 Graham 在 Columbia 三十年的教学生涯里,Buffett 是他最出色的学生。

And by the way, Buffett was the best student Graham had in 30 years of teaching at Columbia.

不过后来发生的是——而且因为我认识他们两个人——Buffett 变得比 Graham 强太多了。

And, uh, but what happened, and since I knew both men, was that Buffett became way better than Graham.

这是很自然的结果。

That is a natural outcome.

这就像 Newton 说的。

It's what Newton said.

他说,如果我比别人看得稍微远一点,那是因为我站在巨人的肩膀上。

He said, if I've seen a little farther than other men, it's by standing on the shoulders of giants.

Warren 也许是站在 Ben 的肩膀上,但最后他看得更远。

Warren may have stood on Ben's shoulders, but he ended up seeing farther.

毫无疑问,迟早会有人出现,做得比我们好得多。

No doubt somebody will come along in due course and do a lot better than we have.
M3
M33:25

我比 Ben 更享受赚钱这件事。

I enjoyed making money more than Ben.

坦白说,确实是这样。

Candidly, I did.

对 Ben 来说,这个——这件事真的只是附带的,至少在我认识他的时候是这样。

With Ben, it just— it really was incidental, at least by the time I knew him.

他年轻的时候也许不一样,但对他来说,这个——这个过程——整个这套游戏,并不比另外十几件他感兴趣的事更吸引他。

It may have been different when he was younger, but it just didn't— the process didn't— the whole game did not interest him more than a dozen other things may have interested him.

但对我来说,我就是觉得这很有意思,所以你知道,我花了多得多——高得多比例的时间去思考投资,去思考企业。

With me, I just find it interesting, and therefore, you know, I've spent way more— a way higher percentage of my time thinking about investing and thinking about businesses.

我大概确实比 Ben 想过多得多的企业问题。

I probably thought way more about businesses.

比 Ben 任何时候想的都多。

Than Ben ever did.

他还有别的感兴趣的东西。

He had other things that interested him.

所以我追求这场游戏的方式,和他有一点——其实是相当不一样,因此拿我们的业绩来衡量,真的——这两份记录——并不是一种合适的比较。

So I've pursued the game a little, quite a bit differently than he did, and therefore measuring the record is really— the two records are not— it's not a proper measurement.

我的意思是,他那时候已经在提前庆功了,而我还觉得自己还在场上,跟整个参赛队伍较量。

I mean, he was doing victory laps while I still thought I was out there running against, you know, the whole field.
M2
M24:27

但 Graham 也有一些盲点,部分是出于某种带着道德感的教授式气质。

But Graham had some blind spots, partly of sort of an ethical professorial nature.

他想找的是那种可以教给所有人的方法,任何聪明的普通人都能学会、都能做得不错。

He was looking for things to teach that would work for every man, that any intelligent layman could learn and do well.

如果你寻找的东西被限制在这个范围里,那现实中很多部分你就不会去碰,因为那些东西太难弄明白,也太难解释清楚。

Well, if that's the limitation of what you're looking for, there'll be a lot of reality you won't go into because it's too hard to figure out and too hard to explain.

而 Buffett 呢,只要里面有钱可赚,他就没有这种限制。

Buffett, if there was money in it, had no such restriction.
M3
M34:58

对,Ben 有点觉得,如果我们跑去跟管理层谈,那就像是在作弊,因为他觉得,读他书的人,比如住在 Idaho 的 Pocatello,那个人不可能跑去见管理层。

Yeah, Ben sort of thought it was cheating if we went out and talked to the management because he just felt that the person who read his book, you know, living in Pocatello, Idaho, could not go out and meet the management.

所以他不这么做,我们也不这么做。

So he didn't, and we didn't do it.

我是说,我在 Graham-Newman 工作的时候,在那二十一个月里,我想我一次都没拜访过管理层。

I mean, when I worked for Graham-Newman, I don't think I ever visited a management in the 21 months I was there.

他只是,你知道,他本来也不确定那样做到底有没有用;但如果那样真的有用,那就意味着他的书并不是全部答案,说明你还得在那本书之外再加上一些东西。

He just, you know, he wasn't sure whether it'd be useful anyway, but if it was to be useful, you know, that meant that his book was not all that was needed, that you had to add something to it.

而我觉得,出去跟人聊他们的生意,或者去找竞争对手、供应商、客户核实情况之类的,这些事都很有意思。

I found it fun to go out and talk about their businesses with people or to check with competitors or suppliers or customers and all that.

不过 Ben 也不觉得那样做有什么不对。

But Ben didn't think there was anything wrong with that.

他只是觉得,如果你非得那么做,那就说明他的书并不是完整答案。

He just felt that if you had to do that, then his book was not the complete answer.
M2
M25:46

对。

Right.
M3
M35:46

而且他确实不太想做任何那种——如果一个读他书的人被扔到荒岛上,你知道,基本上只靠一条能打给经纪人的电话线,却做不了的事情。

And he didn't really want to do anything that the reader of his book couldn't do if he was on a desert island, you know, basically with just one line to a broker.
M2
M25:57

但你仔细想想,Graham 当时其实是在戴着很深的墨镜玩“给驴子贴尾巴”这个游戏,而 Warren 当然会用上他能找到的最大探照灯。

But if you stop to think about it, Graham was trying to play the game of pin the donkey wearing very dark glasses, and Warren, of course, would use the biggest searchlight he could find.

对。

Yeah.
M3
M36:12

可就算这样,我们现在还是找不到什么驴子。

And we still can't find any donkeys these days.

好,第一部分。

Okay, area one.