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8岁股东的提问

41 段 · 3 位说话人 · 原片 5:37
F1
F10:00

我叫 Daphne Collier Starr。

My name is Daphne Collier Starr.

我八岁,住在 New York City。

I'm 8 years old and live in New York City.

我成为股东已经两年了,这是我第二次参加年度股东大会。

I've been a shareholder for 2 years, and this is my second annual shareholders meeting.

Berkshire Hathaway 最成功、也是公司赖以建立声誉的那些投资,都是资本效率非常高的企业,比如说 Coke、See's Candy、American Express 和 GEICO。

Berkshire Hathaway's best investments on which the company built its reputation have been in very capital-efficient businesses such as Coke, See's Candy, American Express, and GEICO.

但最近,Berkshire 在少数几家企业上投了非常大笔的钱,这些企业需要巨额资本投入来维持,而且只能提供受监管的较低回报率,比如 Burlington Northern Railroad。

But recently Berkshire has made really big investments in a few businesses that require huge capital investments to maintain and that offer only a regulated low rate of return, such as Burlington Northern Railroad.

我想问您,Buffett 先生,您能不能解释一下,为什么 Berkshire 最近最大的一些投资,偏离了您过去那种重视资本效率的理念?

My question to you, Mr. Buffett, is, could you please explain why Berkshire's largest recent investments have departed from your old capital-efficient philosophy?

还有,为什么您会特别投资 Burlington Northern,而不是去买像 American Express 这样资本效率高的公司呢?

And why specifically have you invested in Burlington Northern instead of buying a capital-efficient company like American Express?
M1
M11:54

Daphne,你这可把我难住了。

You're killing me, Daphne.
M2
M22:00

对啊,我真庆幸她还不是九岁。

Yeah, I'm certainly glad she's not 9 years old.

对。

Yeah.
M1
M12:10

我正坐在这儿想,明年我们得把六位台上嘉宾里的哪一位换掉,让你来坐。

I'm just sitting here thinking which of the 6 panelists we're going to bump next year and put you in.

我本来还觉得自己十一岁买 Cities Service 的时候已经很厉害了。

Well, I thought I was doing well when I bought that Cities Service at 11.

答案是,我们当然很喜欢——我们一直都更偏爱那种资本回报特别高的企业,比如我们当年买 See's Candy 的时候,它就是这样,还有不少别的企业也是这样。

The answer is that we'd love—we always prefer the businesses that earn terrific returns on capital, like a See's Candy when we bought it, or a good many of the businesses.

American Express 的净资产回报率一直都非常出色,而且很多年来都是如此。

And American Express earns a terrific return on equity and has for a very long time.

我们之所以会买 Burlington Northern,基本上就意味着,我们已经没法以我们觉得合理的价格,在那些轻资本企业里部署更多资金了。

The fact that we buy a Burlington Northern means that essentially we can't get more money deployed in capital-light businesses at prices that make sense to us.

所以我们才会进入资本更密集的一些好生意里,不过要是我们能在没有火车、没有轨道、没有隧道、没有桥梁,少掉这些东西的情况下经营铁路,那该有多美好啊?

And so we have gone into more capital-intensive businesses that are good businesses, but wouldn't it be wonderful if we could run the railroad without trains and track and tunnels and bridges and a few things?

不过,资本密集型企业也能给我们带来还不错的回报。

We get a decent return on the capital-intensive businesses.

我们买下它们当中的大多数时,价格都相当不错,而且买下来之后,它们也一直经营得很好。

We bought most of them at very decent prices, and they've been run very well since we bought them.

我们还是特别喜欢那种几乎不需要多少资本、回报又高、还能持续增长,而且几乎不需要额外增量资本的企业。

We still love a business that takes very little capital and earns high returns and continues to grow and requires very little incremental capital.

只是,靠这种方式,我们没法把手里这么多钱都投出去。

We can't deploy as much money as we have in doing that.

所以,第二好的选择,还是不是一个好选择呢?

And so, is the second-best choice still a good choice?

答案是,是的。

The answer is yes.

只是它没有最好的选择那么好。

It's not as good as the best choice.

Charlie?

Charlie?
M2
M24:10

对,我很喜欢这位小姑娘的追求。

Yes, I like the aspiration of that young lady.

她本质上是想要一种模式:别人卖东西,她就能拿版税,当然,这确实是个非常好的模式。

She basically wants a royalty on the other fellow's sales, and of course, that's a very good model.

要是每个人都能这么做,那大家当然就不会去做别的事了。

And if everybody could do that, why, nobody would do anything else.

我们之所以对我们的 utility 回报和铁路回报感到满意,是因为它们确实相当令人满意。

The reason we're satisfied with our utility returns and our railroad returns is they're quite satisfactory.

而且确实相当令人满意。

And they're quite satisfactory.

我真希望我们还能再有两个这样的。

I wish we had 2 more just like them.

你也这么看吧,Warren?

Don't you, Warren?

对,绝对是这样。

Yeah, definitely.

所以答案就是,它们已经足够好了,而你是在要求我们做到完美。

So the answer is they're good enough, and you're asking us to get perfection.

如果你想让我们把所有的钱都投到 Coke 里,比如说,按它现在售价的百分之五来买。

If you want us to have all our money in Coke at, say, 5% of what it's now selling for.
M1
M14:56

对,而且像 Apple 这样的生意,其实并不太需要多少资本。

Yeah, and a business like Apple really doesn't take much capital.

但是呢,你得花很多钱,才能买下那样的企业。

But so you've got to spend a lot of money to buy businesses like that.

真正拿出来卖的非常少。

Very few are for sale.

答案是,我们并没有为了去买这些其他企业,而放弃任何买入那种高回报企业的机会——就是那种能带来很高回报、净资产回报率非常高,而且我们又能以合理价格买到的企业。

And the answer is, we have not foregone any opportunity to buy businesses that earn high returns, very high returns on equity capital, or when we could buy them at a sensible price, to buy these other businesses.

所以它们并没有把别的东西从桌上挤掉。

So they haven't shoved anything else off the table.

不过你肯定很适合来我们资本配置部门干活。

But you definitely have a job in our capital allocation department.

好,Carl。

Okay, Carl.