M10:28
嗯，一般来说，非生产性资产始终都是——我不知道，比如说如果你在 Christ 那个时代买了黄金，再去算它的复利回报，你知道，可能也就只有百分之零点几。
Well, generally nonproductive assets remain— I don't know, if you had bought gold at the time of Christ and you figure the compound rate on it, you know, it's maybe a couple tenths of 1%.
它本质上除了所谓的稀缺性之外，并不会带来任何东西，你知道，因为总共——你能挖出来的也就那么多。
It essentially is not going to deliver anything other than supposed scarcity, you know, because there'll only— you can only mine so many.
但那又怎么样呢？
But so what?
我的意思是，它自己能产出什么呢？
I mean, what does it produce itself?
你知道，check 是个很棒的发明。
You know, the check is a wonderful idea.
你想想看，如果这个世界不能开支票，也不能进行资金电汇，那会变成什么样。
Just imagine how the world would be without being able to write checks or have wire transfers of funds.
但这并不意味着 check 这个东西本身就天然值很多钱。
But it doesn't make the check intrinsically itself worth a lot of money.
如果你说，不能用一种叫 check 的东西，不能用那张小纸片，那你也会用别的方式来转钱。
And if you said you can't use something called a check with a little piece of paper, you'd do something else to transfer money.
我认为，只要你买的是一种非生产性资产，你其实就是在指望以后会有别人来买这个非生产性资产，因为他们觉得自己还能以更高的价钱卖给下一个人。
I think that anytime you buy a nonproductive asset, you are counting on somebody else later on to buy a nonproductive asset because they think they can sell it to somebody for more money.
这种事在 tulips 上发生过，历史上也在各种别的东西上发生过。
And it's been tried with tulips and it's been tried with various things over time.
而它最后的结局通常都不太好。
And it does come to a bad ending.
我现在有点——你会觉得这很难。
I'm having— you have a hard time.
你也可以想想原始土地。
You can think of raw land.
比如说，Louisiana Purchase 当年大概是花了一千五百万美元，买了大约八十万平方英里的土地。
I mean, the Louisiana Purchase was, say, $15 million for 800,000 or so square miles of land.
事实上，你现在坐着的这块地，当年也包含在 Louisiana Purchase 里面。
In fact, you're sitting on land that came with the Louisiana Purchase.
所以我们当时花了多少钱呢？
And so what'd we pay?
我们当时每平方英里花了二十美元，一平方英里等于六百四十英亩，这么一算，每英亩也就三美分左右。
We paid $20 a square mile, and 640 acres in a square mile, and you're down to 3 cents or something.
所以，对于当时一项非生产性的资产来说，那真是一笔相当划算的交易。
So that was a pretty good purchase of what was then a non-productive property.
但这还是要看情况。
But it depends.
不过这件事很难判断。
But it's very hard.
你也可以买邮票。
You can buy stamps.
Bill Gross 收藏过一套非常棒的邮票，最后卖出了更高的价钱。
Bill Gross collected a wonderful stamp collection, and it sold for more money in the end.
但这还是取决于有没有别人
But it's dependent on somebody else
愿意来买，而且他们也希望以后能再卖出更高的价钱，诸如此类。
wanting to buy, hoping they will sell it for more money, and so on.
而归根结底，你赚钱还是要靠生产性资产。
And in the end, you make your money out of productive assets.
如果你买的是一个农场，你会去估算它能种出多少作物，比如每英亩能产多少大豆、玉米之类的东西，还要算你得付给替你耕种的农民多少钱、税要交多少，以及各种其他因素。
If you buy a farm, you estimate what the crops, what amount per acre of soybeans or corn or whatever may be raised, and how much you have to pay the farmer that farms it for you, and what your taxes will be, and various things.
然后你根据这个资产本身随着时间能够产出什么，来得出一个结论。
And you make a conclusion based on what the asset itself will produce over time.
那就是一种投资。
And that's an investment.
当你买一个东西，唯一的原因就是你希望明天早上醒来时，它的价格会更高，你知道，这种情况下，你得有更多新的人进场来买，而不是更多人在离场。
When you buy something because you're hoping tomorrow morning you're going to wake up, you know, and the price will be higher, the only reason, you know, you need more people coming in to do it than are leaving.
这种情况确实会发生，而且会自我强化一阵子，有时候会持续很久，有时候数字还会夸张得惊人。
And you can get that and it will feed on itself for a while, and sometimes for a long while, and sometimes do extraordinary numbers.
但最后，它们的结局都不会好，cryptocurrencies 也会是个糟糕的结局。
But in the end, they come to bad endings, and cryptocurrencies will come to bad endings.
再加上，这种资产本身并没有真正产出什么价值，同时还有个问题，就是它会吸引来很多骗子之类的人，想方设法去搞各种 exchange，或者别的什么东西。
And along with the fact that there's nothing being produced in the way of value from the asset, that you also have the problem that it draws in a lot of charlatans and that sort of thing who are trying to create various sorts of exchanges or whatever it may be.
你知道，这种东西会让一些品行不怎么样的人看到机会，去收割那些想发财的人——因为他们看到邻居靠买这种连双方都看不懂的东西赚了钱。
It, you know, it's something where people who are of less than stellar character see an opportunity to clip people who are trying to get rich because their neighbor's getting rich buying this stuff that neither one of them understands.
它最后会是个糟糕的结局。
It will come to a bad ending.
Charlie？
Charlie?