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1999年股东大会 · 巴菲特谈股票回购的艺术

22 段 · 2 位说话人 · 原片 3:25
M1
M10:00

我叫 Mike Thell,来自 New Jersey 的 Summit。

My name is Mike Thell from Summit, New Jersey.

您能不能再谈谈 Berkshire Hathaway 股票回购这个问题?

Would you please revisit the question of share repurchase for Berkshire Hathaway?

我们今天听到您提到,过去 Berkshire 的股价有时候定价并不有效。

We have heard today your comment about the price of Berkshire having been inefficiently priced from time to time in the past.

我们也知道,现在流通在外的股份更多了,我很好奇,现金的积累是不是让您花更多时间去寻找那些您对未来十年展望更有把握、更放心的投资机会?

We know that there are now more shares outstanding, and I'm curious as to whether the buildup of cash is causing you to spend more time looking for investment situations where you're more comfortable on the 10-year outlook.

谢谢。

Thank you.
M2
M20:54

关于股票回购这个问题,呃,我刚才也提到过,有时候它的定价并不有效。

The question of repurchasing shares, uh, and I, I made that comment about it being inefficiently priced at times.

在那些时候,我们一直觉得——当然有些情况下我们也看错了——我们一直觉得,还有别的证券定价效率更低。

At those times, it, it always seemed to us—and we were incorrect in some cases—it always seemed to us that there were other securities that were even less efficiently priced.

一九七四年 Berkshire 每股卖到五十美元的时候,呃,我可能会觉得它很便宜,但与此同时,我看到整个 Washington Post Company 的市值才八千万美元,而我当时认为它显然值四亿美元。

When Berkshire in 1974 sold at $50 a share, uh, I might have thought it was cheap, but I also was looking at the whole Washington Post Company selling for $80 million when I thought it was clearly worth $400 million.

所以我当时并不觉得 Berkshire 被低估的程度能比得上 Washington Post Company。

And I did not think that Berkshire was as underpriced then as the Washington Post Company was.

而且在不同的时候,这种情况都出现过——有些时候我觉得 Berkshire 被低估了,甚至是被明显低估了,但同时我也在找到别的东西,我觉得那些更有吸引力。

And that has been true at various times when—there have been times when I thought Berkshire has been underpriced or even significantly underpriced, but at the same time, I was finding other things which I felt were even more attractive.

而且,而且,而且就像我说的,很多时候我是错的。

And, and, and like I say, many times, I was wrong.

如果当时买我们自己的股票,而不是买我后来买的那些东西,我们本来会更划算。

We would have been better off buying our own stock instead of buying the things that I was buying.

但是,如果我们手上有钱,而且我们认为 Berkshire 被明显低估了,同时又找不到别的更合适的资金用途,那显然回购 Berkshire 的股票是有道理的。

But if we have money around and we think Berkshire is significantly underpriced and we're not finding other things to do with money, it obviously makes sense for us to repurchase Berkshire shares.

我觉得在现在这个市场里,对大多数公司来说,这么做都很难说特别合理。虽然回购规模很可能已经接近历史高点,甚至就是历史高点了,但我还是觉得,对大多数公司来说,回购股票这件事如今未必很说得通。

I think it's difficult for most companies in this market, even though repurchases are probably close to an all-time high, if not at an all-time high, I think it's difficult for most companies to be repurchasing—to have repurchase of shares make a whole lot of sense these days.

我的意思是,我不认为他们花出去的钱能买到多少价值,因为那些股票我们自己都不想买。

I mean, I do not think they're getting much for their money because we don't want to buy those shares ourselves.

而且,呃,我说的是 America 各家公司的股票。

And, and it's, uh, I'm talking about the stock of various companies in America.

可即便如此,现在公司们对回购股票的热情,却比二十年前高得多;可二十年前它们通过回购能得到的回报,其实要大得多得多。

And yet companies are much more enthusiastic about repurchasing shares now than they were 20 years ago when they were getting far, far greater returns from repurchasing.

我们一直都会——这始终是一个我们会考虑的选项。不过除非我们认为它的价格被低估得相当明显,否则我们不太可能去做,因为,呃,在做这种决定的时候,我们希望有很大的安全边际。

We will always—it's an option that we will always think about, and we're unlikely to do it unless we think it's fairly dramatically underpriced, because it simply, uh, we, we would want a big margin for error in making that kind of a decision.

也就是说,呃,呃,我们不会想用九十五美分、九十四美分或者九十三美分去买一张一美元的钞票;但如果价格低到某个程度,而且我们手里的钱又没有别的用途,那我们就会开始感兴趣了。

That, uh, uh, not wanna—we would not wanna buy a dollar bill for 95 cents or 94 cents or 93 cents, but there is some level where we would start getting excited if we didn't have other uses for the money.

Charlie?

Charlie?

哦,这个我没什么可补充的。

Oh, I've got nothing to add to that.

八区?

Zone 8?