2012年股东大会 · 芒格：我只要听到EBITDA这个词就感到一阵恶心 — 文稿

M10:01

Warren，当你谈到 Berkshire 的内在价值时，为什么你给保险业务的估值只按每股现金加投资来算？还有，对那些非保险业务的税前利润，套用一个什么样的合理倍数比较合适？

Warren, when you discuss Berkshire's intrinsic value, why do you value the insurance business at only cash plus investments per share, and what's a reasonable multiple to apply to the pre-tax earnings of the non-insurance businesses?

嗯，我会——

Well, I would—.

M20:21

我不是，我不是，我不是像你刚才说的那样给保险业务估值的。

I don't, I don't, I don't value the insurance business quite the way you said.

我，我不会——比如说，我对 GEICO 的估值方式会和对 Gen Re 不一样，甚至对我们一些规模比较小的公司，我也会区别来看。

I, I wouldn't— I would value GEICO, for example, differently than I would value Gen Re, and I would even value some of our minor companies differently.

但基本上，我会说 GEICO 的价值——它的内在价值，明显高于，而且是大幅高于，它的净资产加上它的 float 之和。

But basically, I would say that GEICO is worth— has an intrinsic value that's greater, significantly greater, than the sum of its net worth and its float.

不过，对我们其他一些保险业务，我就不会这么说。

Now, I wouldn't say that about some of our other insurance businesses.

但这里面有两个原因。

But that's for 2 reasons.

一个原因是，我认为假设 GEICO 在未来十年到二十年里能持续取得可观的承保利润，这个判断是相当合理的。

One is I think it's quite rational to assume a significant underwriting profit at GEICO over the next decade or 2 decades.

而且我觉得，它很可能还会有显著增长。

And I think it's likely that it will have significant growth.

这两点，都是价值非常巨大的因素。

And both of those are value items of enormous value.

所以，这就在当前 float 的价值之上，又增加了一层价值。

So that adds to the present float value.

但对其他一些业务，我没法这么说。

But I can't say that about some other businesses.

所以，不过不管怎么说，这部分估值你可以自己去判断。

So, but in any event, I'll let you come up with your own valuation on that.

至于运营业务，显然，不同业务有不同的特点，但我非常愿意再买入一批竞争地位和其他方面都差不多的运营型企业。

In terms of the operating business, obviously different ones have different characteristics, but I would love to buy a new bunch of operating businesses that had similar competitive positions and everything.

在今天这样的条件下，如果能按税前利润的九倍，当然好；十倍税前利润，我可能也愿意买。

Under today's conditions, I would love to buy those at certainly 9 times pre-tax earnings, maybe 10 times pre-tax earnings.

我说的不是 EBITDA 或者那类东西，那都是胡扯；我说的是正常的税前利润。

I'm not talking about EBITDA or anything like that, which is nonsense, but I'm talking about regular pre-tax earnings.

呃，呃，如果它们具有类似的特征，我们可能还会多付一点，因为相比其他一些企业，我们对这些企业了解得要多得多。

Uh, uh, if they have similar characteristics, we'd probably pay a little more in that because we know so much more about them than we might know about some other businesses.

Charlie，你怎么看？

What would you say, Charlie?

M32:10

嗯，当你用了 EBITDA 这个词的时候，我心里就在想，我连这个词都不想听。

Well, when you use the word EBITDA, I thought to myself, I don't even like hearing the word.

围绕 EBITDA 有太多疯疯癫癫的想法了——说白了，就是把那些真正算成本的东西先都扣掉之前的利润。

There's so much nutcase thinking involving EBITDA— earnings before what really counts in costs.

我们更喜欢 EBE，也就是一切都不扣之前的利润。

We prefer EBE, which is earnings before everything.

M22:32

对，纯属胡扯。

Right, it's nonsense.

我的意思是，如果你拿一种业务来比较，比如说，出租铅笔之类的业务，那些铅笔两年内就全都折旧完了；然后你再拿那种几乎不需要资本的业务来比，比如 See's Candies。

And I mean, if you compare a business that, you know, leases pencils or something like that, where they all get depreciated in a 2-year period, and then compare that to some business that uses virtually no capital, you know, like See's Candies.

这完全就是胡扯，不过这套说法对卖公司的人倒是挺管用。

It's just nonsense, but it works for the people that sell businesses.

这就像 Charlie 那个以前卖钓鱼假饵的朋友，是吧？

It's like Charlie's friend that used to sell fishing flies, right?

M32:58

对。

Right.

他说，我卖这些假饵，不是卖给鱼的。

He said, I don't sell these lures to fish.