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2014年股东大会 · 如何正确理解公司的资本成本(cost of capital)

41 段 · 2 位说话人 · 原片 4:50
M1
M10:00

早上好,Charlie。

Morning, Charlie.

我代表 Morningstar,感谢你们今年邀请我们参加这个讨论环节。

On behalf of Morningstar, I want to thank you for having us on the panel this year.

我可能算不上是个正式认证的空头,不过希望我能提出一些有深度的问题,给股东带来价值。

I may not be an accredited bear, but hopefully I ask probing questions that add value for shareholders.

我的第一个问题跟管理层绩效的衡量有关。

My first question relates to the measurement of management performance.

对 Morningstar 来说,衡量成功的最终标准,不只是看一家公司能不能赚到高于它 cost of capital 的回报,还要看它能不能在很长一段时间里持续做到这一点。

For Morningstar, the ultimate measure of success is not just whether or not a firm can earn more than its cost of capital, but whether or not it can do so for an extended period of time.

Berkshire 历来在创造超额回报方面做得很好,不过正如你过去提到的,随着公司业务规模本身越来越大,而且还在继续增长,这种体量最终会限制 Berkshire 能创造的回报。

Berkshire has historically done a good job of generating outsized returns, but as you've noted in the past, the sheer size of the firm's operations, which continue to grow, will ultimately limit the returns that Berkshire can generate.

考虑到这一点,你认为 Berkshire 的 cost of capital 是多少?

With that in mind, what do you believe Berkshire's cost of capital is?

随着你们收购了更多资本密集型、负债更重的公司,你觉得这个门槛回报率提高了多少?

How much do you think that this hurdle rate has increased as you've acquired more capital-intensive, debt-heavy firms?

另外,考虑到 Berkshire 那种超高回报的时代很可能已经过去了,在这个前提下,你对 Berkshire 未来的资本配置者还能继续创造高于公司 cost of capital 的回报,有多大信心?

And how much confidence do you have that future capital allocators at Berkshire will be able to generate returns in excess of the firm's cost of capital, acknowledging, of course, the fact that Berkshire's days of outsized returns are most likely behind it?
M2
M20:55

对,没错,规模毫无疑问会拖累业绩,而我们打算一直证明这一点,直到它真的开始明显咬到我们为止。

Yeah, well, there's no question that size is an anchor to performance, and we intend to prove that up to the point where it starts really biting.

不过,当资本规模已经远远超过两千亿美元——嗯,市值超过三千亿美元的时候,我们就不可能还拿到原来那样的资本回报了。

Uh, but we cannot earn the returns on capital with well over $200— well, with a market cap of $300-plus billion.

这个,这个,嗯,就是做不到。

Uh, it's, it's, uh, it just isn't doable.

Archimedes 不是说过吗,只要给他一根足够长的杠杆,他就能撬动整个世界,对吧,差不多就是这个意思?

Uh, Archimedes, he said he could move the world if he had a long enough lever, didn't he, or something like that?

我倒希望我有他那样的杠杆,因为 Berkshire 可没有那种杠杆。

Well, I wish I had his lever because we don't have that lever at Berkshire.

所以,嗯,这里面其实有两个问题,我们分别来回答。

Uh, so, uh, we will answer two questions there.

说到 cost of capital,Charlie 和我一直都是这么看的:我们的资本成本,就是我们次优方案所能产生的回报,而我们最优的方案必须超过这个水平。

In terms of cost of capital, Charlie and I always figure that our cost of capital is what can be produced by our second-best idea, and then our best idea has to exceed that.

我们觉得——我听过太多关于 cost of capital 的胡说八道——我从来没听过哪场讨论是真正有智慧的。

We think— I've listened to so many nonsensical cost of capital discussions that— I've never heard an intelligent one.

对,对,真的是这样。

Yeah, yeah, it's really true.

我的意思是,这又是另一回事了。

I mean, and that's another thing.

我也在一些董事会待过,CFO 会进来解释为什么我们要做这件事,最后总会落到一句话上:你知道,这个项目超过了我们的 cost of capital。

I've been on boards, and the CFO comes in and explains why we're doing this, and it always gets down to, you know, it exceeds our cost of capital.

可他根本不知道他那个 cost of capital 到底是多少,我也不知道。

And he doesn't know what the hell his cost of capital is, and I don't know.

不过我也不会让他难堪,你知道。

But I don't embarrass him, you know.

所以我就坐在那里听这些说法,按我自己的标准去判断,然后如果我喜欢这个项目,最后大概还是会投赞成票。

So I just sit there and listen to this stuff and apply my own thing, and then still end up voting for it, probably, if I like it.

当然,也有过少数例外。

Although there have been a few exceptions to that.

真正的检验标准,你知道,长期来看,就是我们留存下来的资本,最终能不能创造出超过一美元的市场价值。

The real test, you know, over time is whether the capital we retain produces more than a dollar of market value as we go along.

如果我们不断投进去几十亿美元,而这些钱从现值角度看、从它们给企业增加的价值来看,确实高于我们投进去的金额,那我们就会继续这么做。

And if we keep putting billions in, and those billions in effect are worth, in present value terms, in terms of what they add to the value of the business, more than what we're putting in, you know, we'll keep doing it.

我想是前天吧,我们买了一家公司,我们花了接近三十亿美元。

We bought a company the day before yesterday, I guess it was, and we are spending close to $3 billion U.S.

那是一家 Canadian 公司,我们认为做了这笔交易之后,我们在财务上会更有利。

It's a Canadian company, and we think we will be better off financially because we did that.

而且我们认为,在那一天,三十亿美元最好的用法就是做这件事。

And we thought it was the best thing that we could do with the $3 billion on that day.

这就是我们采用的衡量标准。

And those are the yardsticks that, that we have.

我确实知道的是,我从来没见过哪个 CEO 想做一笔交易,而 CFO 不站出来说这笔交易超过了 cost of capital。

And what I do know is that I've never seen a CEO who wanted to do a deal where the CFO didn't come in and say it exceeded the cost of capital.

在我们看来,这就是个游戏而已。

It's just a game as far as we're concerned.

我们认为自己能评估企业,我们也清楚自己手头可用的资本,而且我们还有一些东西可以卖掉来买——不是买企业,而是 marketable securities——这些我们都可以卖。

And we think we can evaluate businesses, and we know the capital we have available, and we have things that we can sell to buy—not businesses, but marketable securities—and we can sell them.

如果我们喜欢的话,就用来买企业。

To buy businesses if we like.

而且,我们一直都在衡量 Charlie 刚才带着点情绪提到的那个机会成本。

And we, we are constantly measuring that opportunity cost that Charlie talked about in the moody.

这是个很重要的话题,而且我觉得,围绕它写出来的胡说八道,可能比任何别的话题都更多。

It's an important subject and one that I think has had more nonsense written about it than about anything.

不过我还是把话交给 Charlie,让他继续往下讲。

But I'll turn it over to Charlie to go further.

像 cost of capital 这种说法,对不同的人意思都不一样,而且对那些在 business school 教书的人来说,往往还会变成很荒唐的东西;我们根本不用这个说法。

A phrase like cost of capital, which means different things to different people and often means silly things to people who teach in business schools, we just don't use it.

Warren 的定义——也就是在公司里做事时,要让每留存下来的一美元,倾向于为股东创造出超过一美元的市场价值——这大概才是描述 cost of capital 最好的方式。

Warren's definition of behaving in a corporation so that every dollar retained tends to create more than a dollar of market value for the shareholders is probably the best way of describing cost of capital.

但 business school 里讲的可不是这个意思。

That is not what they mean in business schools.

答案再简单不过了:我们是对的,他们是错的。

The answer is perfectly simple: we're right and they're wrong.