M20:39
嗯，每一家企业的价值——农场的价值、公寓楼的价值、任何一种经济资产的价值——都百分之百对利率敏感。因为你做投资，本质上就是现在把一笔钱交给别人，来换取你预期在未来一段时间里会收到的一串现金流。
Well, the value of every business—the value of a farm, the value of an apartment house, the value of any economic asset—is 100% sensitive to interest rates, because all you are doing in investing is transferring some money to somebody now in exchange for what you expect a stream of money to come in over a period of time.
而利率越高，现在的价值，也就是现值，就会越低。
And the higher interest rates are, the lower present value is going to be.
所以任何一家企业，就其本质来说，不管是 Coca-Cola、Gillette，还是 Wells Fargo，在它的内在估值上，都是，都是，都是，呃，百分之百对利率敏感的。
So every business, by its nature, whether it's Coca-Cola or Gillette or Wells Fargo, in its intrinsic valuation is, is, is, uh, 100% sensitive to interest rates.
现在，问题在于，像 Wells Fargo 或者 Freddie Mac 这样的公司，不管是哪一种，它们的业务本身会不会因为利率上升而在内部变得更好或者更差——这里说的是业务本身，不是估值过程——这个就没那么容易判断了。
Now, the question as to whether a Wells Fargo or a Freddie Mac or whatever it may be, whether their business gets better or worse internally as opposed to the valuation process because of higher interest rates, that, that, that is not easy to figure.
我的意思是，GEICO，如果它承保保险业务时的 underwriting ratio 保持不变——换句话说，就是它的赔付和费用，相对于保费来说，经验还是一样的。
I mean, GEICO, if they write their insurance business at the same underwriting ratio—in other words, they have the same loss and expense experience relative to premiums.
那随着时间推移，它显然会从更高的利率中受益，因为它是个 float business，而这些 float 对它来说会更值钱，呃。
They benefit by higher interest rates, obviously, over time because they're a float business and the float is worth more, uh, to them.
当然，从外部来看，回到估值这一部分，这些收益的现值也会因此变低；但是在更高利率的环境下，Coke 的收益现值也一样会变低，呃。
Now, externally, getting back to the valuation part, the present value of those earnings also becomes less then, but the present value of Coke's earnings becomes less, uh, in a higher interest rate environment.
至于 Wells Fargo，在任何一个给定的利率情景下，它到底会赚更多钱还是更少钱，这很难判断。
Wells Fargo, it's, uh, whether they earn more or less money under any given interest rate scenario is hard to figure.
可能会有一种短期影响，也可能会有另一种长期影响。
There may be one short-term effect and there may be another long-term effect.
所以，我并不需要先对利率有一个看法，而且事实上我也没有什么利率观点，才能去决定一家保险公司、一家 mortgage guarantor business，呃，或者一家银行，或者类似这样的业务值不值得投。
So I do not have to have a view on interest rates, and I don't have a view on interest rates, to make a decision as to an insurance business or a mortgage guarantor business, uh, or a banking business or something of the sort.
这和我去判断 Coke 或者 Gillette，其实是一样的。
Relative to making a judgment about Coke or Gillette.
Charlie？
Charlie?
我没什么要补充的。
I've got nothing to add.
二区？
Zone 2?