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1995年股东大会 · 巴菲特与芒格谈金融衍生品的巨大危害

46 段 · 2 位说话人 · 原片 6:05
M1
M10:00

Charlie 想不想评论一下,或者你想不想评论一下,其他金融机构对这些东西的使用?

Would Charlie care— you or Charlie care to comment on the use of these by other financial institutions?

关于衍生品这个问题,我之所以在 Fortune 的一篇文章里插进那句评论——如果你们还没读,我建议你们都去读一读——我是说,如果 CEO 必须在报告里说明自己到底懂不懂这些衍生品,那衍生品的使用会大幅减少。

The question about derivatives, the reason I inject that remark in a Fortune article that all of you should read if you haven't, I suggested that the use of derivatives would be dramatically reduced if the CEO had to say in the report whether he understood them or not.

不过,对你这个问题的回答是,我们有——我想可以说——两类规模很小的衍生品交易,但这并不意味着如果条件合适,我们现在不会把它们做得大得多,或者我们过去不会那么做。

And the answer to your question, though, is we have— we have 2 types, I guess it would be, of derivative transactions of very modest size, but that doesn't mean we wouldn't have— if the conditions were right, we either wouldn't have them on a much greater scale now or we wouldn't have done it in the past.

我们有两类这种交易,而且我确实懂它们。

We have 2 types of transactions, and I do understand them.

而且有些时候——

And there are times—.
M2
M20:52

抱歉。

I'm sorry.
M1
M10:53

当有些事情是我们想做的——虽然不常见——但有时候,最好的实现方式就是通过一笔涉及衍生证券的交易,那我们也不会犹豫去做。

When there are things that we would want to do— not often, but there would be times when they could be best accomplished by a transaction involving a derivative security, and we wouldn't hesitate to do so.

我们显然会非常在意交易对手,因为那种交易本质上就只是两个人之间的一小张纸。

We would obviously care very much about the counterparty, because that transaction is just a little piece of paper between 2 people.
M2
M21:19

对。

Yes.
M1
M11:20

而且到了期末,通常总会有其中一方得去做一件不太舒服的事,也就是给另一方开张支票。

And it's going to cause one of the two to have to do something painful at the end of the period, usually, which is to write a check to the other person.

所以,你得确保那个人既愿意开这张支票,也有能力开这张支票。

And therefore, you want to be sure that that person will be both willing and able to write the check.

所以我们大概比大多数人更在意交易对手风险。

And so we're probably more concerned about counterparty risk than most people might be.

去年和前年,我想我都说过,衍生品经常把借来的钱和无知结合在一起,而这是一种相当危险的组合。

Last year and the year before, I think I said that derivatives often combine borrowed money with ignorance, and that that is a rather dangerous combination.

我想,过去这一年里,我们已经看到一些这样的情况了。

And I think that we've seen some of that in the last year.

当你可以进行这种某种非实物的交易,涉及几亿美元、几十亿美元,甚至几百亿美元,只要你能让对手方接受你的签字,那这里面真的——这里面就很可能会产生大量错误和乱来。

When you can engage in sort of non-physical transactions that involve hundreds of millions or billions or tens of billions of dollars, as long as you can get some party on the other side to accept your signature, that really has— that has the potential for a lot of mistakes and mischief.

而且如果你看过其中一些产品涉及的公式,尤其是我想,利率类衍生工具,那你真的很难想象,创造出这些工具到底能解决什么商业目的。

And if you've looked at the formulas involved in some, particularly, I guess, interest-rate-type derivative instruments, it is really hard to conceive of how any business purpose could be solved by the creation of those instruments.

我的意思是,它们本质上带有非常强烈、非常大的赌博成分。

I mean, they essentially had a huge, really gambling element to them.

而我这么说,是指去承担一种本来根本没必要被创造出来的风险。

And I use that in the terms of engaging in a risk that doesn't even need to be created.
M2
M23:06

对。

Yes.
M1
M13:06

这和投机性的成分还不太一样。

As opposed to speculative aspects.

它们是在创造风险,不是在转移风险,你知道,不是在缓和风险,而是在大规模地创造风险。

They involved the creation of risk, not the transfer of risk, you know, not the moderation of risk, but the creation of risk on a huge scale.

而且,过去这一年里,大概有五六起因为这些东西陷入麻烦的案例曝光出来,这也许反而是件好事,因为这可能会——会减轻未来的麻烦。

And it may be fortunate that in the last year, half a dozen or so cases of people who have gotten into trouble on them have come out, because that may tend to— to moderate the troubles of the future.

这里面的潜在风险是巨大的。

The potential is huge.

我的意思是,你可以,你可以在衍生品市场里做出很多事情。

I mean, you can, you can do things in, in the derivative markets.

嗯,我以前举过这个例子:在用证券做抵押借钱这件事上,Federal Reserve 和 U.S. government 在很多很多年前就认定,限制人们用借来的钱买证券的程度,符合社会利益。

Well, I've used this example before, but in borrowing money on securities, the Federal Reserve and the U.S. government decided many decades ago that society had an interest in limiting the degree to which people could use borrowed money in buying securities.

他们参考的是二十世纪二十年代的例子,当时百分之十的保证金水平,被认为是导致大崩盘的一个因素。

They had the example of the 1920s with what was 10% margin, then was regarded as contributing to the Great Crash.

所以政府通过 Fed 设定了保证金要求,说,我不管你是不是 John D. Rockefeller,你买 General Motors 股票或者别的什么股票,都必须先拿出购买成本的百分之五十。

So the government, through the Fed, established margin requirements and said, I don't care if you're John D. Rockefeller, you know, you're gonna have to put up 50% of the cost of buying your General Motors stock, or whatever it may be.

他们的意思是,也许 Rockefeller 先生本人不需要这个限制,但社会需要。

And they said that maybe Mr. Rockefeller doesn't need that, but society needs that.

他们不想——我们不想看到一大堆人用很薄的保证金去赌博。

They don't— we don't want a bunch of people on thin margins gambling.

你知道,本质上就是在股票上赌博,而这种连锁反应会给社会带来各种各样的问题。

You know, essentially in shares where the ripple effects can cause all kinds of problems for society.

那现在在法律上还是这样,但已经没什么意义了,因为各种衍生品工具,已经让二十年代那种百分之十的保证金看起来——你知道——跟现在这些操作比起来,简直像 Nebraska 小镇上的银行家眼里那种非常保守的做法。

And that's still the law, but it means nothing anymore because various derivative instruments have made 10% margins of the 1920s, you know, look like what a small-town banker in Nebraska would regard as conservative compared to what goes on.

所以这段历史还是挺有意思的。

So it's been an interesting history.

就像我说的,也许过去这一年的经历,已经让所有人都把注意力放到衍生品上了。

And like I said, perhaps the experiences of the last year, they've got everybody focused on derivatives.

但没有人确切知道该拿它们怎么办。

Nobody knows exactly what to do about them.

不过 Berkshire Hathaway 会知道。

Berkshire Hathaway will.

如果我们觉得某件事有道理,而且 Charlie 和我也看得懂、能理解,我们可能会找到办法去用它们,为我们自己争取我们认为有利的结果。

If we think something makes sense and Charlie and I understand it, we may find ways to use them to what we think will be our advantage.

Charlie,你想不想在这个问题上再补充两句?

Charlie, you want to add anything on that?
M2
M25:18

嗯,我比你还更不赞成。

Well, I disapprove even more than you do.

这可不容易。

Which is hard.

如果是我在管理这个世界,我们根本就不会有期权交易所。

If I were running the world, we wouldn't have options exchanges.

衍生品交易的规模,大概只会有现在的百分之五,而且合约的复杂程度也会大幅下降。

The derivative transactions would be about 5% of what they are, and the complexity of the contracts would go way down.

清算系统会更严格。

The clearing systems would be tougher.

我觉得这个世界有点疯了,我也很庆幸,我在生活里的位置还不至于非得替这套东西辩护不可。

I think the world has gone a little bonkers, and I'm very happy that I'm not so located in life that I have to be an apologist for it.

你知道,这些人里有很多,我其实挺同情他们的。

You know, a lot of these people, I feel sorry for them.

你知道,他们原本有很好的银行,可他们却不得不站到别人面前,有时候甚至是站到自己的孩子和朋友面前,去辩称这些东西有多么美妙。

You know, they had great banks and they have to go before people, sometimes even including their children and friends, and argue that these things are wonderful.

所以总结一下。

So in summary.