2017年股东大会 · 持续学习的能力对于投资的重要性 — 文稿

F10:00

我叫 Sally Burns。

My name is Sally Burns.

我来自 Australia，不过我现在住在 Texas 的 Austin。

I'm from Australia, but I currently reside in Austin, Texas.

我的问题是，Buffett 先生，我听说 Munger 先生说，您最大的天赋是您像一台学习机器，会不停地更新自己的看法。

My question, Mr. Buffett, I have heard that Mr. Munger says your greatest talent is that you're a learning machine, that you never stop updating your views.

您在过去这几年里学到的、最有意思的东西是什么？

What are the most interesting things you've learned over the last few years?

M10:22

嗯，学习是件很有意思的事。

Well, it is fun to learn.

我会说，Charlie 比我更像一台学习机器。

I would say Charlie is much more of a learning machine than I am.

我呢，我算是比较专门化的那种，而他要更——而且他在我的专长领域里做得跟我一样好，同时对于这个世界上正在发生的事情，他吸收和理解的广度比我大得多。

I'm, I'm a specialized one, and he's a much— and he does as well as I do in my specialty, and then he's got a much more general absorption rate than I have about what's going on in the world.

不过你知道，这个世界一直都在变得越来越让人着迷，而且当你发现自己在某件事上错了的时候，往往也会有很多乐趣。

But, you know, it, it's a world that gets more fascinating all the time, and, and a lot of fun can occur when you learn you were wrong on something.

这——你知道——那才是你真正学习的时候，你会真正明白，原来的那些想法其实并没有那么正确。

It, you know, it— that's when you really, when you really learn that the old ideas really weren't so correct.

然后你就得接受一个新的想法，或者一些新的想法，当然这并不容易。

And you have to adopt a new one, new ones, and that of course is difficult.

我不知道我是不是要特别挑出什么——不过，我其实觉得 America 正在发生的事情，真的非常非常有意思，政治上啊，各种各样的事。

I don't know that I would pick out— well, I, I think actually what's going on, you know, in America is terribly, terribly interesting, you know, politically, all kinds of things.

不过，呃，整个世界展开变化的方式，就是——发展得很快。

But, uh, just the way the world's unfolding, uh, it's moving fast.

我确实很享受去试着弄明白，不只是将来会发生什么，甚至连现在到底正在发生什么。

I, I do enjoy trying, you know, to figure out not only what's going to happen but what's even happening now.

不过我不觉得我有什么特别的见解，会对你有用，呃。

But I don't think I've got any special insights that would be useful, uh, to you.

不过也许 Charlie 有。

But maybe Charlie does.

M21:35

嗯，我觉得买 Apple 的股票，对 Warren 来说就是个很好的信号。

Well, I think buying the Apple stock is a, is a good sign in Warren.

而且他还真的在 Omaha 到处问，谁能把他孙子孙女手里的平板拿走。

And now he did run around Omaha and ask who could take his grandchildren's tablets away.

我的意思是，他确实做了市场调研。

I mean, he did market research.

我确实觉得，我们一直都在学习，而且更重要的是，我们不会把那些老招数给忘了。

I do think we keep learning, and more important, we don't unlearn the old tricks.

这一点真的非常重要。

That is really important.

你看看那些试图靠印钞、撒谎之类办法来解决问题的人。就拿 Puerto Rico 来说。

You look at the people who try and solve their problems by printing money and lying and so forth. Take Puerto Rico.

谁能想到，United States 的一个属地居然会破产？

Who would have guessed that a territory of the United States would be in bankruptcy?

嗯，我倒是会预料到，因为他们的行为就像白痴一样。

Well, I would have predicted it because they behaved like idiots.

M12:28

而且我们一张 Puerto Rico 的债券都没买。

And we did not buy any Puerto Rico bonds.

M22:32

对。

No.

你再看看 Europe，说到——你到 Europe 去，看看那些政府债券投资组合。

And if you go to Europe, talk about— you go to Europe, you look at the government bond portfolios.

就是我们在 Europe 被要求持有的那些债券组合。

Bond portfolios we're required to hold in Europe.

那里不只是没有 Greek 债券，除了 Germany，别的国家的债券基本都没有。

There's not only no Greek bonds, there are bonds of nothing, nobody but Germany.

你在 Berkshire 到处看，都会发现总有人在做理性的事，这是一种很大的乐趣。

Just everywhere you look in Berkshire, somebody is, is being sensible, and that is a great pleasure.

再把这一点跟非常善于抓机会结合起来，这样一来，当像恐慌这种情况出现的时候，嗯，那就很棒——这就像在一个本来就需要两只手来玩的游戏里，你是用两只手在玩，而不是一只手。

And to combine that with being very opportunistic so that when something comes along like a panic, why, it's a nice— it's like it's like playing with 2 hands instead of one in a game that requires 2 hands.

脑子里有一套相当丰富的招数，确实很有帮助。

It helps to have a fair-sized repertoire.

还有，Warren，我们真是学到了他妈的太多东西。

And Warren, we've learned so damn much.

过去这十年里，我们做了各种各样的事，而这些事要是放在二十年前，我们根本不会去做。

There are all kinds of things we've done in the last 10 years we would not have done 20 years ago.

M13:29

对，这是真的，不过你要是这么看——这挺有意思的。

Yeah, that's true, although if you take— it's interesting.

我以前提过这个，不过我觉得，关于投资最好的书之一，是一九五八年写出来的。

I've mentioned this before, but one of the best books on investment was written, I think, in 1958.

我想我大概是一九六零年前后读到的，呃，作者是 Phil Fisher，书名叫 Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits。

I think I read it around 1960, uh, by Phil Fisher called Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits.

M23:48

结果那些公司后来全都完蛋了。

And all the companies went to hell eventually.

M13:52

不过那本书里讲到了一个重要的东西，我是说，或者说一种很有用的方法，就是他所谓的 scuttlebutt method。

But it, it talked about the importance, I mean, or the usefulness of what he called the scuttlebutt method.

然后，呃，你知道，这不是我从 Graham 那儿学来的东西，但时不时地，它后来证明是非常有用的。

And, and, uh, you know, that was something I didn't learn from Graham, but every now and then it's turned out to be very useful.

当然，这也不能解决所有问题，我是说，另外还有很多很多别的东西。

Now, it doesn't solve everything, and I mean, there's a whole lot more.

M24:09

我看过你在 American Express 和 salad oil scam 那件事上就是这么干的。

I saw you do it with American Express and the salad oil scam.

对，对，几十年以后，你现在研究 Apple 的时候还在这么做。

Yeah, yeah, you're still doing it on Apple, you know, decades later.

M14:15

对，在某些情况下，你其实光靠问很多问题，就真的能学到很多东西，呃，这点我得把功劳记在 Phil Fisher 身上。

Yeah, it, it, in certain cases, you actually can learn a lot just by asking a lot of questions, uh, and I give Phil Fisher credit.

呃，那本书已经是很多很多年前的了，不过 Charlie 也说了，他当年挑出来、以为会一直赢下去的那些公司，呃，后来确实有点慢慢不行了。

Uh, that book goes back a lot of years, but, but Charlie said some of the companies he picked as winners forever, uh, did sort of peter out on him.

不过，不过那个基本思路——在有些情况下，光靠不停地问，你就能学到很多很多东西。

But, but the, the basic idea— you can learn a, a lot of things just, just, just by asking in some cases.

我是说，我以前会——比如说，随便举个例子，要是我对煤炭行业产生了兴趣。

I mean, I used to— I mean, if I got interested in the coal industry, just say, to pick one out of the air.

你知道，我年轻得多、精力也更旺盛的时候，如果我去跟十家煤炭公司的负责人聊，我会在谈话进行到比较后面、等他们都很放松了，也很愿意开口了之后，就直接问他们：如果你必须去一个荒岛待十年，而且你得把你全家的钱都投进你某一个竞争对手身上，你会选谁，为什么？

You know, when I was much younger, more energetic, if I went and talked to the heads of 10 coal companies and I asked each one of them way later into the conversation after they got feeling very, uh, felt like talking, and I would just, you know, I'd just say, if you had to go away for 10 years on a desert island and, and you had to put all of your family's money into one of your competitors, which one would it be and why?

然后你知道，接着我还会问他们，要是必须拿全家的钱去做空某一个竞争对手十年，他们会选谁。

And then, you know, then I'd ask them if they had to sell short one of their competitors for 10 years all their family money.

为什么？

Why?

M25:24

然后他们——

And they—.

M15:25

每个人都爱聊自己的竞争对手。

Everybody loves talking about their competitors.

如果你对十家不同的公司都这么问一遍，那你对煤炭行业经济状况的把握，很可能会比其中任何一个人自己都更全面。

And if you do that with 10 different companies, you'll probably have a better fix on the economics of the coal industry than any one of those individuals has.

我是说，很多事情都是有办法摸出来的，有时候有用，有时候没用，但有时候真的会非常非常有用。

I mean, there's ways of getting at things, and sometimes they're useful, sometimes they're not, but sometimes they can be, can be very useful.

还有，你知道，这种一直不停地去学更多东西的想法——在这方面，我可比 Charlie 专得多。

And, and, you know, the idea of just learning more all the time about— I'm, I'm more specialized in that by far than Charlie.

我是说，他是什么都想学，而我只是想学那些能帮到 Berkshire 的东西。

I mean, he wants to learn about everything, and I just want to learn about something that'll help Berkshire.

不过，这确实是你知道，一种对待世界非常有用的态度。

But it's a very, you know, it's a very useful attitude to have toward the world.

当然，我也不知道这话是谁说的，不过有人说过，问题不在于获得新想法，而在于摆脱旧想法。

And of course, I don't know who said it, but somebody said the problem is not in getting the new ideas but shedding the old ones.

这话确实很有道理。

And there's a lot of truth to that.

M26:12

如果 Iscar 是在十年前出现的，我们绝对不会买它。

We would never have bought Iscar if it had come along 10 years earlier.

如果 Precision Castparts 是在十年前出现的，我们也绝对不会买它。

We would never have bought Precision Castparts if it had come along 10 years earlier.

我们一直在学习，而且，天哪，我们到现在还在继续学习。

We are learning, and, my God, we are still learning.