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1998年股东大会 · 芒格:为何伯克希尔从不投资房地产行业?

25 段 · 3 位说话人 · 原片 2:51
M1
M10:00

Larry Pikovsky,来自 New Jersey 的 Millburn。

Larry Pikovsky, Millburn, New Jersey.

Berkshire 看起来几乎从来没有做过那种真正纯粹的房地产投资——先不算运营公司自己可能持有的那些设施,唯一的例外,大概就是 Wesco 参与过 California 的那个住宅项目。

Berkshire seems never to have made any real pure real estate investments, not counting facilities the operating companies might own, with the exception of Wesco's involvement in the residential project in California.

我想问的是,你们有没有看过某个房地产交易,然后试着套用你们分析运营公司时用的那套筛选标准?比如说竞争优势、资本回报率这些。

I was wondering if you've ever looked at a real estate transaction and tried to apply the same filters, meaning competitive advantages, returns on capital, that you do in operating companies?

如果没有的话,这是能力圈的问题呢,还是说你们觉得房地产这个领域没什么意思?

And if not, is it a circle of competence issue, or is there something you find disinteresting about real estate?
M2
M20:47

这个你想来回答吗?

You want to take this one?
M3
M30:47

对。

Yeah.

好,Charlie 想回答这个问题。

Okay, Charlie wants to take this one.

这个还是我来答吧,因为在这个领域,我们过去很多年、很多个十年里,留下了一份完美的记录:凡是我们碰过的、跟房地产有关的事情,几乎每一次都蠢得很明显。

Let me take this one because here's an area where we have a perfect record that extends over the last many decades: we have been demonstrably foolish in almost every operation that had to do with real estate we've ever touched.

每次我们手上有多余的厂房,不想按对方的报价直接卖掉,也不想让什么开发商占我们便宜的时候,事后看,我们其实还不如当时就接受报价,然后把钱投到那些我们更有专长的领域里去。

Every time we had a surplus plant and didn't want to hit the bid and let some developer kind of take unfair advantage of us, we would have been better off later if we'd hit the bid and invested the money in fields where we had the expertise.

我开发过的那个住宅社区项目,当时是因为我不想让那些 zoning authorities 按他们想要的方式那样占我便宜——现在我倒希望,当初就让他们那么干算了。

That housing tract that I developed because I didn't want to let the zoning authorities rob me the way they wanted to—I wish I had let them.

我们在这个领域里,失败记录是可以盖章认证的。

We have a certified record of failure in this field.
M2
M21:39

而且——有意思的是,我们其实懂房地产。

And we—the funny thing is, we understand real estate.

而且我们做这个也不差。

And we're good at it.

对。

Right.

这么说其实是对的。

That actually is correct to say.

我们确实懂房地产,而且 Charlie 最开始就是靠房地产起家的。

We do understand real estate, and Charlie got his start in real estate.
M3
M31:53

对,但是我们对别的事情懂得更多、更好,所以我们在房地产上做得很大的概率很低。

Yeah, but we understand other things better, and so the chances that we're going to be big in real estate are low.
M2
M22:02

对,我们看过很多项目,但那些价格,你知道,从我们花出去的钱能换回什么来看,并不能让我们觉得特别有吸引力。

Yeah, we've seen lots of things, and the prices, you know, just don't intrigue us in terms of what we get for our money.

我大概二十一岁的时候,还试过去买一整个小镇呢。

I tried to buy a town when I was, what, 21 years old.

当时美国政府在 Ohio 出售一个小镇,那笔买卖本来会非常划算。

The U.S. government had a town in Ohio for sale, and it would have worked out very well.

我一直觉得——这个领域本身并没有什么让我们反感的地方,只是我们看不到特别好的回报。

I've always—there's nothing about the arena that turns us off, but we don't see great returns available.

而且就像 Charlie 说的,那少数几件事,尤其是像手里有个老厂房之类的,

And like Charlie says, the few things, particularly having an old plant or something,

这种情况——我们一直都不算特别擅长把自己从里面处理出来。

that is not—we have not been great at working our way out of those.

还好,这些事跟 Berkshire 的净资产相比,并不算特别重要。

Fortunately, they haven't been very important in relation to the net worth of Berkshire.

二区?

Area 2?