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2011年股东大会 · 巴菲特承认,这是他买过的最差的生意

61 段 · 3 位说话人 · 原片 6:45
M1
M10:00

这个问题来自 Massachusetts 州 North Andover 的 Matthew Palmer。他写道,Buffett 先生,您曾经称赞 Ajit 可能是接班人。

This question comes from Matthew Palmer of North Andover, Massachusetts, and he writes, Mr. Buffett, you have praised Ajit as a possible successor.

既然他可能会成为我们下一任 CEO,您能不能举一个具体的例子,说说他写过哪一张保单让您印象特别深刻?另外,也能不能稍微谈谈他的思维方式?因为我们很少有机会听他本人讲话。

Since he may be in line as our next CEO, can you give us a concrete example of a policy that he's written that's impressed you, and can you talk a little bit about the way he thinks since we rarely get an opportunity to hear from him?
M2
M20:22

对,Ajit 可不是那种喜欢抛头露面的人。

Yeah, Ajit is not exactly a publicity hound.
M3
M30:27

对。

No.
M2
M20:30

他——我想不出他做过哪一个决定,是我觉得自己本来能做得更好的。

He— I can't think of any decision he's ever made that I think I could have made better.

而且我——现在也不是对他所有的交易都完全了解。

And I've— I'm not privy to all of his transactions anymore.

就是其中有很多单子,规模不算特别大,也没那么值得特别关注。

It's just there are lots of them that, that are not of huge size or of great interest.

不过,但凡有什么有意思的项目,或者特别大的项目,他都会告诉我。

But, but he tells me about all the interesting things that come along and all the very big things that come along.

我可以这么说,任何一个他提出来的方案,你听完之后,跟着他投票会比跟着我投票更划算。

I would say this, you'd be better off voting with him than with me after listening to any proposition he brings up.

他的思考方式,和 Charlie 一样理性,跟我见过的任何人比都毫不逊色。

He is as rational a thinker as Charlie is, as anybody I've met.

他非常热爱自己做的事。

He loves what he does.

他很有创造力。

He's creative.

他真的非常有创造力。

He's very creative.

这些年我们在再保险领域,一个接一个地进入了很多新的方向。

We have moved into one area after another in reinsurance.

当别人在我们经营的某个业务领域里跑来模仿我们的时候,他又会想出新的东西。

When people came in copying us in one area of business that we would be operating in, he comes up with something else.

最近,我们在 life reinsurance 上活跃得多了,不过——不过谁知道明天会发生什么呢?

Lately, we've been much more active in life reinsurance, but— But who knows what tomorrow brings?

我的意思是,如果今年第三季度碰巧发生一次特别大的 CAT 事件,或者类似的情况,那就可能在承保方面打开各种机会——如果市场承保能力变得紧张的话。

I mean, if there happens to be a huge CAT in the 3rd quarter of this year or something of the sort, that might open up all kinds of opportunities in writing covers when— if capacity got strained.

但谁知道呢?

But who knows?

谁知道会发生什么?

Who knows what will happen?

我只知道,Ajit 的脑子就像机器一样,日复一日地运转,而且他——

All I know is that Ajit's mind works like a machine, you know, day after day, and he—.
M3
M32:12

对。

Yeah.
M2
M22:13

他确实热爱自己做的事,而这一点对任何事情想做得好都非常重要。

He does love what he does, which is an important part of doing well in any activity.

而且我真的——我也不知道他最好的一笔交易是哪一笔。

And I really— I don't know what his best deal was.

但我知道我最好的一笔交易是什么,那就是把他招进来。

I know what my best deal was, which was hiring him.

Charlie?

Charlie?
M3
M32:31

对。

Yeah.

Sir William Osler 创办了一所堪称全球典范的医学院。他过去常说,在一个领域里取得成功的秘诀,就是对它产生非常浓厚的兴趣。

Sir William Osler, who created a model medical school for the world, used to say that the secret of success in a field was getting very interested in it.

Ajit 对自己做的事情,就是真的非常有兴趣。

Well, Ajit is really interested in what he does.

你们很多人可能不知道,每到 Thanksgiving,Ajit 都会飞去 London,因为那边不过 Thanksgiving。

Many of you don't know this, but every Thanksgiving Ajit flies to London because they don't have a Thanksgiving holiday.
M2
M23:02

不过我们还是给他放 Christmas 假的。

We give him Christmas off though.

哦,Ajit,我们刚才——你知道,他这个人——我说他有多么不可替代,这可一点都不夸张。

Oh, Ajit, we just, you know, he is— I say how invaluable he is, and I'm not exaggerating when we talk about him.

而且他,呃,他在非常了不起的程度上,永远都是先替 Berkshire 着想。

And he, uh, he is, to an extraordinary degree, he thinks of Berkshire first.

Ajit 呢,在不同阶段,当保险公司因为这样那样的原因变得很热门的时候——比如说,前些年 Bermuda 的那些公司就特别火。

Ajit, at various periods when insurance companies became popular for one reason or another, that was, you know, it was the big thing about Bermuda companies some years ago.

Ajit 本来完全可以把自己的身价变现到一个惊人的程度。

Ajit could have monetized himself to an incredible degree.

他现在其实还是可以这么做。

He still could do it.

我的意思是,人们会愿意在组建任何一家资金雄厚的公司时,直接送给他相当大比例的股份,这样一来,他几乎什么都不用做,我猜,立刻就能创造出好几亿美元的财富。只要——有人拿出个二十亿美元左右,然后跟他说,这里面有百分之二十是你的,或者不管具体是多少。

I mean, people would hand him a significant percentage of any company being formed with lots of money so that immediately he could create, I would guess, in the hundreds of millions of wealth without lifting a finger, just by— somebody putting up, you know, a couple billion dollars and saying you've got 20% of it or whatever it may be.

我是说,你听着,他很聪明,他知道这件事,但他脑子里根本不会去想做这种事。

And I mean, and listen, he's smart, he knows that, and it doesn't cross his mind to do anything like that.

我的意思是,我们在薪酬这件——他每到年底,总会感谢我为他做的那些事,可等我全都弄完的时候,我都觉得自己少写了一个零。

I mean, we have in comp— he always thanks me for what I do at the end of the year, and I feel I've left off a zero, you know, when I get all through.

呃,他真的是个非常了不起的人,而我们也非常非常幸运,呃——我觉得他在 Berkshire 做这些事,本身也乐在其中。

It's, uh, he's just a remarkable human being, and we are very, very lucky that, uh— I think he has a lot of fun in what he does at Berkshire.

他手下有大概三十个人的核心团队跟他一起工作。

He's got a cadre of about 30 people that work with him.

呃,另外还有更多人在处理理赔,还有那些 runoff business 之类的事情,不过——在我看来,你找不到第二个这样的团队。

Uh, there's many more that are settling claims and doing that sort of thing on runoff business, but it's— you won't find anything like it, in my view.

不光是在保险业里,实际上在几乎任何商业领域里都是这样。

Not only in the insurance world, but really in almost any part of the business world.

那我们就说到这个吧。

Let's go there.
M3
M35:06

你还没回答那个问题。

You didn't answer the question.

也许你是故意绕开了。

Maybe you avoided it on purpose.

他说的是,我们最差的生意是什么?

He said, what are our worst businesses?
M2
M25:12

我们最差的生意是什么?

What are our worst businesses?

嗯,一般来说——这只是笼统地讲——我有,嗯,我在进入一些小生意的时候犯过某些错误,那些生意其实从来就没有变大的潜力。不过整体来说,我大概会把零售业算进去——你知道,Dexter 是我们最差的一笔生意,但我也有 Furniture Mart。

Well, generally speaking, and this is general, I have— well, I've made certain mistakes in going into smaller businesses that really never had the potential of becoming big, but I would say overall, probably I would call retailing— you know, Dexter was our worst business, but I have the Furniture Mart.

很明显,那是个很棒的业务,但尽管我们在不少零售业务里待了相当长时间,我们并没有在这方面建立起很强的盈利能力。

Obviously, it's a terrific operation, but we have not made— despite being in numerous retailing, quite a few retailing businesses for quite a while, we have not created major earning power there.

Charlie,你也同意这一点吧?

Wouldn't you agree on that, Charlie?
M3
M36:04

对,不过幸好它只占我们整体业务里很小的一部分。

Yeah, but luckily it's a small part of the operation.

对,你说得没错,不过那一直是我们最难打的一场仗。

Yeah, but you're right, but that's been the hardest game for us.

而且,你知道,如果我们再聪明一点,本来是可以更早看明白这一点的。

And, you know, if we were a little smarter, we could have figured that out better.
M2
M26:20

嗯,要是我们再聪明一点,我们很多事情都能做得更好。

Well, if we were a little smarter, we could have done a lot of things.
M3
M36:24

对,没错。

Yeah, right.
M2
M26:26

对,当然,Sears 在某种程度上也是零售生意。

Yeah, of course, Sears is a retailing business to some degree.
M3
M36:29

对。

Yes.
M2
M26:30

而且,你知道,我们当年在那里取得了巨大的成功,所以也许我们就开始觉得自己是天才了。

And, you know, we had enormous success there, so maybe we started thinking we were geniuses.

你知道,我们就像池塘里那只鸭子,天在下雨,我们还以为自己是在凭本事步步高升,其实只不过是因为在下雨。

You know, we were like the duck on the pond when it was raining, and we thought we were rising in the world because of merit, and it was just because it was raining.

对。

Yeah.

好,我们来看第二个问题。

Okay, we'll go to number two.