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1996年股东大会 · 巴芒谈社会运行的本质,它会奖励怎样的人

57 段 · 3 位说话人 · 原片 8:11
F1
F10:00

Buffett 先生,Munger 先生,我非常敬佩你们的正直和智慧。

Mr. Buffett, Mr. Munger, I have a great deal of respect for your integrity and your wisdom.

我在市中心的一所学校当老师,在那里,越来越弥漫着一种普遍的无望感。

I work as an inner-city schoolteacher where there is a rising and pervasive sense of hopelessness.

当我问我的学生,什么会让你们感到幸福,他们最主要的回答是:一百万美元。

When I ask my students, what would make you happy, their predominant response is, a million dollars.

你们作为这个世界上最富有的人当中的两位,我想知道,你们会怎么回应他们。

As some of the richest men in the world, I wonder what your response to them might be.

还有这个问题的第二部分,资本主义在哲学基础上,很大程度忽视了一种系统性的视角,这里面包括:为了维持市场经济而不断消耗有限的全球资源;极端富有者和极端贫困者之间不断扩大的差距;以及国际社会眼中的 America——一个其核心价值被认为是贪婪和帝国主义的国家。

And as a second part of this question, the philosophical underpinnings of capitalism have largely ignored a systemic perspective involving issues of ongoing depletion of limited global resources exploited to sustain a market economy, widening gaps between the very wealthy and the severely impoverished, and an international view of America as a country whose primary values are greed and imperialism.

当我们迈入二十一世纪,你们是否觉得有必要重新构想资本主义的前提,让它回到 democracy、justice 和人道关怀这些最初的理念上?

As we move into the 21st century, do you see a need to re-envision capitalist premises towards original notions of democracy, justice, and humanitarian concerns?
M1
M11:01

刚才那一大段我没全听明白,不过——

Didn't get all of that, but—
M2
M21:02

嗯,我可以这么说。

Well, I will say this.

我对现有社会秩序的评价,比你要高一些。

I am higher on the existing social order than, than you are.

任何一种社会秩序总会有很多问题,当然,我们这个社会有些地方确实比以前坏了不少。

There's always plenty wrong with a social order, and certainly there are places where ours is a lot more broken than it used to be.

我不觉得 Warren 和我对世界上所有问题有什么神奇的解决方案,不过,想着要一百万美元,而不是先去解决一个更具体、更现实的小目标,这种心态是不对的。

I don't think Warren and I have any wonderful solution to all the problems of the world, but wishing for a million dollars instead of solving some more tangible short step is the wrong frame of mind.

我们当年拿到第一笔一百万,可不是这么来的。

That isn't the way we got our million dollars.

不过,顺便说一句,Warren 可能会给出不一样的回答。

Warren might give a different answer, by the way.

他——

He's—
M1
M12:03

不,我倒是同意这一点——与其盼着一百万,不如先盼着有份工作,这在我看来很有道理。

No, I would agree with the— wishing for a job makes a lot of sense to me.

然后再去想办法怎么找到这份工作,再从那里一步一步往前走。

And figuring out how to get one and then going from there.

不过,呃,这个世界上确实一直都存在,而且一直以来都存在着巨大的不平等,这并不是说它就应该永远如此。

But it, ah, there is and always has been, that doesn't mean it always should be, but there is a tremendous amount of inequality.

但你不希望看到的是机会上的不平等。

What you don't want is an inequality of opportunity.

人的能力本来就会有很大的差异。

There will be a lot of inequality in ability.

像我们这样的市场体系,最终产出的就是人们想要的东西。

A market system like we have turns out what people want.

如果人们想看重量级拳击比赛,想看 Mike Tyson,那他们就会愿意付给他两千五百万美元,只为了让他上台打几分钟。

If they want to watch a heavyweight fight and they want to watch Mike Tyson, they're going to pay him $25 million for getting in the ring for a few minutes.

它会生产人们喜欢的东西,而且是大量地生产;就生产效率而言,它的表现一直非常好。

And it produces what people like and it produces in an abundance and it's done very well in terms of production.

现在,在这个国家,处于最底层百分之二十的人,也比五十年前的同类处境要好;而且,这个国家最底层的百分之二十,也比其他任何国家的最底层百分之二十过得更好。

It is much better to be in the bottom 20% in this country now than it was 50 years ago, and it's better to be in the bottom 20% of this country than in any other country.

但即便这样,这仍然不能让人满意。

But it still isn't very satisfactory.

市场体系不会奖励老师,不会奖励书呆子——我的意思是,它不会以任何能和奖励艺人、能看懂企业价值的人、运动员,或者这类人相提并论的方式,去奖励那些做了各种有用事情的人。

The market system does not reward, does not reward teachers, does not reward nerds, I mean, does not reward all kinds of people who do all kinds of useful things in any way comparable to how it will reward entertainers or people who can figure out the value of businesses or athletes or that sort of thing.

市场体系会为那些能娱乐大众的东西支付非常高的回报。

A market system pays very big for something that will entertain them.

人们一天里有相当多时间都想被娱乐,所以,能娱乐别人的人,往往比能教育别人的人赚得更多。

People want to be entertained a good bit of the day and pays better for people that will entertain than educate.

我认为,我并不想去摆弄这个市场体系。

I think, I don't want to tinker with the market system.

我也不认为应该由我来告诉别人,他们的人生应该追求什么。

I don't think I should be telling people what they should want to do with their lives.

但我确实认为,那些在这个体系下过得非常好的人,有责任以纳税的方式做出更多贡献,而且这种税制应该合理照顾到那些不太适应这个体系、但在其他方面完全是体面公民的人。

But I do think that it's incumbent on the people that do very well under that system to be taxed in a manner that, that, that takes reasonable care of anybody that is not well adapted to that system, but that is a perfectly decent citizen in every other regard.

就是,你知道,我不想在怎么给人征税这件事上,开始扯什么所谓的可比价值之类的话题。但是我确实觉得,像我这种人,碰巧跟这个制度特别契合,可要是放到 Bangladesh 或者别的什么地方,我可能根本就不值一提,因为我身上这些东西在那边是兑现不了价值的。

And that is, you know, I don't want to start getting into comparable worth in terms of how I tax people, but I do think that somebody like me that happens to just fit this system magnificently but wouldn't be worth a damn in Bangladesh or someplace, you know, because what I have wouldn't pay off there.

他们那套制度不会奖励这种东西。

Their system would not reward that.

我觉得我们是从社会那里得到回报的,是社会在提供回报给我们,这个社会会因为我给这场游戏带来的东西,给我非常巨大的奖励。

I think that we get from society, society provides me, this society provides me with enormous rewards for what I bring to the game.

对 Mike Tyson 也是一样,对那些腺样体条件特别适合唱歌的人也是一样,不管具体是什么天赋。

And it does the same with Mike Tyson, and it does the same with some guy whose adenoids are right for singing, or whatever it may be.

我不想去动这个机制,但我确实认为,那些因此从社会其他人那里拿到各种各样索取凭证的人——而那些并不适应这个制度、其实本来很优秀的人——真的就会从这个体系的缝隙里掉下去。

And I don't want to tamper with that, but I do think those people who are getting all kinds of claim checks on the rest of society from that, where people who are not well adapted to that system, but that are perfect— really, you know, fall through the slats on that.

我觉得过去五十年在这方面是有进步的,但我也觉得,就这一点来说,我们离一个完美社会还差得远。

And I think progress has been made on that over the last 50 years, but I think we're far from a perfect society in that respect.

我希望,接下来的五十年还能有更多进步。

And I hope, you know, more progress is made in the next 50 years.

不过我不认为,光是盼着一百万美元这件事——你知道,事情不是这么运作的。

I don't think the wishing for the million dollars, though, is the— you know, it just, it doesn't work that way.

我觉得,如果你很幸运,正好拥有这个市场体系会奖励的那种东西,那你在这里就会过得非常好。

I think, but if you are lucky enough to have something that this, the market system rewards, you do very well here.

如果你不那么幸运,拥有的是它不会奖励的东西,那你现在也还是会比三十年、四十年前过得更好,也会比在其他国家过得更好。

And if you're unlucky enough to have something it doesn't reward, you do better now than you would have 30 or 40 years ago, and you do better than in other countries.

但我也能理解,为什么看着另一个人,只是天赋组合稍微有点不同,就能以某种方式拿到这些索取凭证,让他自己和他家接下来五代人都处在一种几乎不用怎么做事的位置上,这会让人觉得非常不公平。

But I can see where it seems very unjust to look at somebody else who has just a little different mix of talents that can achieve claim checks in a way that keeps them and the next 5 generations of their family in a position where they don't have to do very much.
M2
M25:57

我要说的是,我赞成一定程度的社会干预,把资本主义结果里的某些不平等削弱一点。

I would say that I like a certain amount of social intervention that takes some of the inequality out of results in capitalism.

但我极其痛恨去奖励任何很容易造假的东西,因为我觉得那样一来,人们就会撒谎,而且撒谎会奏效,接着谎言就会扩散,我认为整个文明都会因此恶化。

But I hate with a passion rewarding anything that can be easily faked because I think then people lie and lying works and the lying spreads and I think your whole civilization deteriorates.

如果是我来管理这个世界,工伤赔偿里因为工作压力而给的补偿会是零。

If I were running the world, the compensation for stress under workmen's compensation would be zero.

不是因为压力不是真实存在的,而是因为只要你对压力给予补偿,就根本没办法把造假排除出去。

Not because there isn't real stress, because there's no way to keep the fakery out if you reward stress at all.
F1
F16:38

谢谢。

Thank you.
M1
M16:39

Forbes 大概前一期里有一篇非常好的文章,展示了从一九零零年开始,不同阶段的职业分布情况。

There was a very good article in Forbes about one issue ago that showed the occupations of different intervals going back to 1900.

你只要看看那个图谱,就能看出一个问题:如果你假设最底下百分之二十的人——不管你用什么标准来衡量他们的就业能力,是 IQ、工作意愿、精力水平,还是什么别的——这一群人在一百年前其实是非常适合当时大多数工作的。

One problem you can see just by looking at that profile is that if you assume 20% of the, the bottom 20%, however you measure it in terms of employability, whether it's measured by IQ or interest in working or energy level or whatever you want to do, they fit very well most of the jobs that were available 100 years ago.

换句话说,当时很多工作,你用相对没那么突出的智力能力,也是能做的。

In other words, that you could do most of the jobs, of which there were many, with relatively unimpressive mental abilities.

但随着工作的变化,人的分布结构并没有变。

And as jobs have changed, the profile of people hasn't changed.

所以最后处在吃亏那一端的人就更多了。

So there are more people that end up on the short end.

当然,这里面好的一面是,社会创造出来的产出也多了很多。

Now, the good part of that is the society produces so much more.

多到它可以用这样那样的方式照顾这些人。

That it can take care of those people one way or another.

现在真正的难点是,既要照顾他们,还要让他们不只是感觉自己有生产力,而是真的有生产力,真的能成为这个运转过程的一部分。

Now, the trick is to take care of them and make them not only feel but be productive and be part of the act.

我们有足够多的产出来做到这一点,但是——我们还没有——我们还远远谈不上擅长 figuring out 怎么让能力上处于底部百分之二十或百分之三十的人,去适应不断变化的新工作结构。

And we've got enough product to do that, but— we don't have— we're not perfect at figuring out how to make the bottom 20 or 30% in terms of abilities fit a new changing job profile.

我真的建议你去看看那本 Forbes,因为——如果你把那些图表背后的含义想透,我觉得你就会明白,社会问题到底该去解决哪些。

I really recommend you look at that Forbes magazine because it— if you think through the implications of those charts, I think you'll see what social problems have to be attacked.

四区。

Zone 4.