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2009年股东大会 · 检查你的投资组合时,请忘记你的买入成本!

17 段 · 3 位说话人 · 原片 2:05
M1
M10:00

我叫 Kelly Cardwell,来自 Illinois 州的 Warrenville。

My name's Kelly Cardwell from Warrenville, Illinois.

两位,如果你们其中任何一位今天要重新开始做一家规模更小的投资基金,比如说在 Illinois 州 Warrenville,有一家两千六百万美元的基金,叫 Central Square Capital,假设是这样的话——

Guys, if either of you were starting a smaller investment fund today, let's say in Warrenville, Illinois, a $26 million fund called Central Square Capital, hypothetically—
M2
M20:18

你等会儿会收到一张商业广告账单。

You'll get billed for a commercial later on.
M1
M10:21

在资产规模更小的情况下,你们会怎么做得不一样?不管是持仓数量,还是换手频率这两个方面。

With the smaller asset base, what would you do differently, both in terms of the number of positions and frequency of turnover?

比如说,如果你持有一个由十只股票组成的投资组合,其中有五只在很短时间内翻了一倍,那么,主动管理这个组合、把这五只已经翻倍的股票获利了结,再把回收的资金重新投入到你的其他持仓里——也就是那些还没怎么上涨的股票里,因为按理说那里面的上行空间更大,胜算也更明显地站在你这边——这样做有道理吗?

For example, if you owned a portfolio of 10 stocks and 5 of them doubled in a short time period, would it make sense to actively manage the portfolio and take profits in the 5 that had doubled and redeploy the proceeds into your positions—into the ones that had not moved higher, where presumably more upside exists and the odds are more dramatically stacked in your favor?

还是说,你会更倾向于打着长期投资的名义,按兵不动?

Or would you favor the strategy of sitting on your hands in the name of long-term investing?
M2
M21:02

我们会持有我们最喜欢的那五六只左右的股票。

We would own the half a dozen or so stocks we like best.

而且——我们根本不会去管我们的买入成本是多少。

They're—and we wouldn't have anything to do with what our cost on them was.

我们只会看我们对它的价格和价值之间关系的判断,成本是多少,根本没有影响。

It would only have to do with our evaluation of their price versus value, and it doesn't make any difference what the cost is.

顺便说一句,就算它们跌了百分之五十,我们也还是会这么说。

And incidentally, if they went down 50%, we would say the same thing.

我,呃,就拿你的例子来说吧,我不知道那只基金实际上到底有没有什么东西涨了,或者跌了。

I, you know, and using your illustration, I don't know whether that fund has actually had something that went up or went down.

所以我们会——我们会——我们的成本基础,除了极少数情况以外——而 Berkshire 现在其实就有一个这样的情况,我可能稍后会稍微解释一下——但成本基础跟这个基金本身没有任何关系。

So we would—we would—our cost basis, except in rare cases—and we actually have a situation like this at Berkshire now, which I may explain a little later—but the cost basis doesn't have anything to do with the fund.

Charlie 和我以前管理基金的时候,呃,我们不会——我们不会去操心某个东西是涨了还是跌了。

When Charlie and I ran funds, uh, we didn't—we didn't worry about whether something was up or down.

呃,我们在意的是,它的内在价值和它当前的卖价相比怎么样;而且我们会尽量把大部分资金放在相对较少、非常少、并且我们自认为非常了解的几个持仓上。

Uh, we worried about what it was worth compared to what it was selling for, and we tried to have most of our money in relatively few, very few positions which we thought we knew very well.

我们现在这么做,一百年以后也还是会这么做。

We do the same thing now, we do the same thing 100 years from now.

Charlie?

Charlie?
M3
M32:01

对,他是在很委婉地建议你采用一种不同的思考方式。

Yes, he's tactfully suggesting that you adopt a different way of thinking.