M21:15
是的，嗯，决定事情的主要因素，并不是今天盈利的某个倍数。
Yeah, well, it isn't a multiple of today's earnings that is primarily determinative of things.
比如我们在 1988 年和 1989 年买可口可乐时，这只股票的价格是每股 11 美元，最低到过 9 美元，最高到过 13 美元，但平均大约是 11 美元。
We bought our Coca-Cola, for example, in 1988 and '89, on this stock at a price of $11 a share, which was as low as $9, as high as $13, but it averaged about $11.
而它今年会赚，嗯，大多数估计是在 2.30 到 2.40 美元之间。
And it'll earn, we'll say, most estimates are between $2.30 and $2.40 this year.
所以，那是今年盈利不到 5 倍，但在我们买入的时候，那其实是个相当不小的倍数。
So, that's under 5 times this year's earnings, but it was a pretty good-sized multiple back when we bought it.
关键在未来。
It's the future that counts.
就像我写的那样，也像 Wayne Gretzky 说的，去球将要到的地方，而不是它现在所在的地方。
It's like what I wrote there, what Wayne Gretzky says, to go where the puck is going to be, not where it is.
所以，当前的倍数要和资本再投资以及资本投入的速度结合起来看，才能决定现在一笔投资的吸引力。
So the current multiple interacts with the reinvestment of capital and the rate at which that capital is invested to determine the attractiveness of something now.
在这个估值过程中，利率会在相当大程度上影响我们，但不是说 7.3、7.0 还是 7.5 这种差别。
And we are affected in that valuation process to a considerable degree by interest rates, but not by whether they're 7.3 or 7.0 or 7.5.
不过我的意思是，如果长期利率是 11% 或者 5%，我们的想法就会大不一样。
But I mean, we will be thinking much differently if their long-term rates are 11% or 5%.
而且，嗯，但我们脑子里并没有什么神奇的倍数。
And, uh, but we don't have any magic multiples in mind.
我们想买的是那种 10 年后会比现在赚很多很多钱的生意，而且到那个时候我们仍然会对这门生意的前景感到很满意。
We want to be in the business that 10 years from now is earning a whole lot more money than it is now, and that we will still feel good about the prospects of the business at that time.
这就是我们想全部买下来的那种生意，也是我们想买一部分的那种生意。
That's the kind of business we're trying to buy all of, and that's the kind of business that we try and buy part of.
当然，有时候我们也会买别的。
And then sometimes we buy others too.
Charlie？
Charlie?
我们不搞这种死板的公式化东西。
We don't do any of that rigid formulaic stuff.
在我们脑子里，有一个你可以称之为公式的整体框架。
There's a general framework that you can call a formula in our mind.
在我们脑子里，有一个你可以称之为公式的整体框架，但我们其实会按照方程去计算。
There's a general framework that you can call a formula in our mind, but that we would actually calculate in terms of the equation.
我们在 88 年和 89 年买可口可乐时，我们对这门生意未来会怎么发展有这样的想法，但从来没有把它变成一次具体计算。
When we bought Coke in '88 and '89, we had this idea about what we thought the business would do over time, but we never reduced it to making a calculation.
也许我们应该这么做，但我的意思是，我们就是觉得那没有那种精确度，对吧？
Maybe we should, but I mean, it just we don't think there's that kind of precision, do we?
我们觉得从大方向上这么想是对的，而且我们认为，如果你以为自己能把它精确到一个点，那你就是在自欺欺人。
We think it's the right way to think in a general way, and we think if you try to if you think that you can do it to pinpoint it, you're kidding yourself.
所以我们认为，当我们做决定时，应该有足够大的安全边际，应该吸引到你根本不需要把它算到小数点后三位。
And therefore, we think that when we make a decision, there ought to be such a margin of safety that it ought to be so attractive that you don't have to carry it out to 3 decimal places.
这方面还有什么吗？
Anything on that?
我们再接两个问题，然后就得离开了。
We'll take a couple more and then we'll have to leave.
我们有个董事会会议。
We've got a directors' meeting.
我们一年就开一次董事会会议，我们不想让他们失望。
We have one directors' meeting a year and we don't want to disappoint them.
四区。
Zone 4.