M10:00
我想先花几分钟，给大家一点看问题的角度：你们在思考投资的时候，可以怎么想，而不是老是把注意力放在今天发生了什么，甚至此时此刻正在发生什么。
And I would like to just spend just a couple of minutes giving you a little perspective on how you might think about investments as opposed to the tendency to focus on what's happening today or even this minute as you go through.
为了说明这一点，我想先回顾一点我个人的经历，我们就从这里开始。
And to help me in doing that, I'd like to go back through a little personal history, and we will start.
我手上有一份一九四二年三月十二日的《New York Times》。
I have here a New York Times of March 12th, 1942.
我的阅读进度稍微落后了一点。
I'm a little behind on my reading.
如果你回到那个时候，差不多是——怎么说呢——我们卷入一场战争大概才三个月，而当时这场战争我们还处在失利当中。
If you go back to that time, it was about, what, just about 3 months since we got involved in a war which we were losing at that point.
报纸头条上全都是坏消息。
The newspaper headlines were filled with bad news.
尤其是来自 Pacific 的消息，我摘了几条三月十一日之前几天的头条，我等会儿会解释为什么。
From the Pacific, and I've taken just a couple of the headlines from the days preceding March 11th, which I'll explain.
因为那一天对我来说算是个很重要的日子。
It was kind of a momentous day for me.
所以你们可以看看这些标题。
And so you can see these headlines.
我想，屏幕上现在放的是第二张 slide。
We've got slide 2 up there, I believe.
当时我们的处境很麻烦。
And we were in trouble.
对。
Yes.
在 Pacific 那边是大麻烦。
Big trouble in the Pacific.
再过只有几个月，Philippines 就会失守了，但在这时候，我们已经不断听到坏消息。
It was only going to be a couple months later that the Philippines fell, but here we were getting bad news.
我们可以切到第三张 slide，看看三月九日。
We might go to slide 3 for March 9th.
希望大家至少能看清这些标题。
I hope you can read the headlines anyway.
顺便说一句，这份报纸卖三美分。
The price of the paper is 3 cents, incidentally.
再看看，屏幕上现在应该是三月十日那一页。
And let's see, we've got March 10th up there as a slide.
我得先适应一下这种先进的 slide 技术。
I'm going to get to where this advanced technology of slides is.
我想确认一下，我给你们看的东西，和我面前看到的是同一个。
I want to make sure I'm showing you the same thing that I'm seeing in front of me.
总之，到了三月十日，消息还是一样糟糕。
So anyway, on March 10th, once again, the news was bad.
通往 Australia 的道路几乎被彻底打开了。股市也一直在反映这种局势，而我那时一直在盯着一只股票，叫 Cities Service preferred stock，前一年它卖到八十四美元。
Full clearing path to Australia, and it was like, the stock market had been reflecting this, and I'd been watching a stock called Cities Service preferred stock, which had sold at $84 the previous year.
而在那一年更早一点，也就是两个月前的一月初，它的价格是五十五美元。
It had sold at $55 the year before, early in January, 2 months earlier.
到了三月十日，它已经跌到四十美元了。
And now it was down to $40 on March 10th.
所以那天晚上，尽管头条全是这些消息，我还是对我父亲说，我说，我想该出手了，我想让你第二天帮我买三股 Cities Service Preferred。
So that night, despite these headlines, I said to my dad, I said, I think I'd like to pull the trigger, and I'd like you to buy me 3 shares of Cities Service Preferred the next day.
那就是我的全部了。
And that was all I had.
我是说，那就是我攒下来的全部本钱。
I mean, that was my capital accumulated.
是我在之前大约五年里一点点积累起来的。
Over the previous 5 years or thereabouts.
所以第二天早上，我父亲就买了三股。
And so my dad, the next morning, bought 3 shares.
那么，我们来看看第二天发生了什么。
Well, let's take a look at what happened the next day.
请翻到下一张。
Let's go to the next slide, please.
那可不是个好日子。
And it was not a good day.
股市这边，Dow Jones Industrials 跌破了一百点。
The stock market, the Dow Jones Industrials, broke 100 on the downside.
你们看到，当时它跌了百分之二点二八，但按现在来算，大概相当于跌了五百点。
Now, they were down 2.28%, as you see, but that was the equivalent of about a 500-point drop now.
所以我当时在学校里，当然就在想到底发生了什么。
So I'm in school wondering what is going on, of course.
顺便说一句，你们会看到图表左边，New York Times 把 Dow Jones Industrial Average 放在他们自己计算的所有平均指数下面。
Incidentally, you'll see on the left side of the chart, the New York Times put the Dow Jones Industrial Average below all the averages they calculated.
他们当时有自己的平均指数，后来都消失了，但 Dow Jones 一直延续到了今天。
They had their own averages, which have since disappeared, but the Dow Jones has continued.
所以，第二天——我们可以翻到下一张——你们就会看到后来发生了什么。
So, so the next day, we can go to the next slide, and you will see what happened.
那只当时三十九美元的股票，我爸爸一大早就按我的要求帮我买了，我那三股。
The stock that was at $39, my dad bought my stock right away in the morning because I'd asked him to, my 3 shares.
所以我买在了当天的最高价。
And so I paid the high for the day.
那个三十八块二毛五，就是我的成交价，也是当天最高价。
That $38.25 was my ticket, which is the high for the day.
结果到收盘的时候，它跌到了三十七块。这其实也挺符合我后来很多年做股票时机把握的一贯风格。
And by the end of the day, it was down to 37, which was really kind of characteristic of my timing in stocks that was going to appear in future years.
不过那只股票是在当时叫 New York Curb Exchange 的市场上交易，后来那个市场变成了 American Stock Exchange。
But it was on the, what was then called the New York Curb Exchange, then became the American Stock Exchange.
不过后来情况还是好了起来，虽然在 Midway 战役之前，战争形势看上去一直都很糟。如果你们翻到下一张，就会看到那只股票后来表现得相当不错。
But things, even though the war until the Battle of Midway looked very bad and if you'll turn to the next slide, please, you'll see that the stock did rather well.
你们可以看到我买入的位置，三十八块二毛五。后来这只股票一路涨上去，最后 Cities Service Company 实际上以每股两百多美元把它赎回了。
You can see where I bought it, $38.25, and then the stock went on actually to eventually be called by the Cities Service Company for over $200 a share.
不过这并不是个让人开心的故事，因为如果你们翻到下一页，就会看到我——嗯，就像人们常说的那样，当时看起来是个好主意，你知道。
But this is not a happy story because if you go to the next page, you will see that I— well, as they always say, it seemed like a good idea at the time, you know.
所以我卖掉了，我赚了五美元。
So I sold, I made $5 on it.
这也一样，很典型地反映了我的行为模式。
It was, it was again typical of behavior.
不过当你看着它跌到二十七块的时候，你会觉得能赚到这个数已经很不错了。
But when you watch it go down to 27, you know, it looked pretty good to get that.
那我说这些到底是想说明什么呢？
Well, what's the point of all this?
好，我们先把 Cities Service 这个故事放一边。我想请你们再把自己带回到一九四二年三月十一号。
Well, we can leave behind the Cities Service story, and I would like you to again imagine yourself back on March 11th, 1942.
就像我说的，不管是在欧洲战场，还是在 Pacific 正在发生的事情，当时看起来都很糟。
And as I say, things were looking bad in the European theater as well as what was going on in the Pacific.
这个国家的每一个人都知道，美国最后会赢得这场战争。
Everybody in this country knew America was gonna win the war.
我的意思是，我们确实是被打了个措手不及，但我们会赢，而且我们知道 American system 从一七七六年以来一直运转得很好。
I mean, it was, you know, we'd gotten blindsided, but we were gonna win the war, and we knew that the American system had been working well since 1776.
所以，如果你们翻到下一张，我想请你们设想一下：如果在那个时候，你投资了一万美元，并且把这笔钱放进一个 index fund。
So if you'll turn to the next slide, I'd like you to imagine that at that time, uh, you had invested $10,000, and you put that money in an index fund.
当时还没有 index fund，不过实际上就等于是你买了 S&P 500。
We didn't have index funds then, but, but you in effect bought the S&P 500.
现在，我想请你们先想一会儿，而且——先别切这张幻灯片。
Now, I would like you to think a while, and don't— do not change the slide here for a minute.
我想请你们想想，如果你只有一个最基本的前提：就像买农场一样，你买下来是为了整个一生都一直持有，并且看农场的产出来判断这是不是一笔明智的投资，那么这一万美元今天会值多少钱。
I'd like you to think about how much that $10,000 would now be worth if you just had one basic premise, just like in buying a farm, you buy it to hold throughout your lifetime and depend, and you look to the output of the farm to determine whether you made a wise investment.
如果你买了一栋小公寓楼，也是打算持有一辈子，那你也是看这栋公寓楼的产出来判断自己这笔投资是不是明智。
You look to the output of the apartment house to decide whether you made a wise investment if you buy an apartment, small apartment house to hold for your life.
那么假设你决定把这一万美元投进去，持有一部分 American business，而且再也不看任何股票报价，也再也不听任何人给你的建议，或者类似的东西。
And let's say instead you decided to put the $10,000 in and hold a piece of American business, uh, and never look at another stock quote, never listen to another person give you advice or anything of the sort.
我想让你们想一想，你们现在可能会有多少钱。
I want you to think how much money you might have now.
现在你脑子里有了一个数字，我们来看下一张幻灯片，答案就出来了。
And now that you've got a number in your head, let's go to the next slide and we'll get the answer.
你会有五千一百万美元，而且你根本不用做任何事。
You'd have $51 million and you wouldn't have had to do anything.
你不需要懂会计。
You wouldn't have to understand accounting.
你也不用像我第一天那样，每天盯着报价看。
You wouldn't have to look at your quotations every day like I did that first day.
我那天放学回家的时候，已经亏了三块七毛五了。
Well, I'd already lost $3.75 by the time I came home from school.
你要做的，只是判断 America 长期来看会发展得很好，我们会克服眼前的困难，而如果 America 发展得好，American business 就会发展得好。
All you had to do was figure that America was going to do well over time, that we would overcome the current difficulties, and that if America did well, American business would do well.
你不需要挑出会赢的股票。
You didn't have to pick out winning stocks.
你也不需要挑一个完美的入场时机，或者任何这类事情。
You didn't have to pick out a winning time or anything of the sort.
基本上，你这一辈子只需要做一个投资决定，而且那也不是唯一一次可以这么做的时候。
You basically just had to make one investment decision in your life, and that wasn't the only time to do it.
我的意思是，我还可以回过头去挑别的时间点，结果会赚得更多。
I mean, I could go back and pick other times that would work out to even greater gains.
不过，当你们今天听我们回答问题的时候，只要记住，最最核心的问题是：在你整个投资生涯里，American business 会表现得怎么样？
But as you listen to the questions and answers we give today, just remember that the over— the overriding question is, how is American business going to do over your investing lifetime?
我还想再说一点，因为这事有点意思。
I would like to make one other comment because it's a little bit interesting.
假设你当时拿着那一万美元，听了周围那些散布悲观论调的人说的话——而且你这一生中会不停听到这种声音。
Let's say you'd taken that $10,000 and you'd listened to the prophets of doom and gloom around you, and you'll get that constantly throughout your life.
然后你没有去投资别的，而是用这一万美元去买 gold。
And instead, you'd use the $10,000 to buy gold.
那现在，你这一万美元换来的东西就是——你看看你的保险箱，里面会有一百盎司 gold，你可以看看它，摸摸它，或者——我的意思是，随便你想拿它干什么。
Now, for your $10,000, you'd— look in your safe deposit box, and you'd have your 100 ounces of gold, and you could look at it, and you could fondle it, and you could— I mean, whatever you wanted to do with it.
但它不会产出任何东西。
But it didn't produce anything.
而且它永远也不会产出任何东西。
It was never going to produce anything.
那你今天会有什么呢？
And what would you have today?
你会有三百盎司 gold，就像一九四二年三月时你拥有的那些一样，而它现在大概值四十万美元。
You would have 300 ounces of gold, just like you had in March of 1942, and it would be worth approximately $400,000.
所以，如果你选的是一种不产生收益的资产，也就是 gold，而不是一种会产生收益的资产——后者实际上会赚更多钱，会再投资，会分红，也可能回购股票，不管具体是哪种方式——那你现在拥有的价值，会是那种不产生收益资产的一百多倍。
So if you decided to go with a nonproductive asset, gold, instead of a productive asset, which actually was earning more money and reinvesting and paying dividends and maybe purchasing stock, whatever it might be, you would now have over 100 times the value of what you would've had with a nonproductive asset.
换句话说，你在 American business 里每赚到一美元，如果当初买的是这种所谓的价值储藏品，那你的收益还不到一美分。可每次你被头条新闻或者类似的东西吓到时，总有人叫你赶紧往那边跑。
In other words, for every dollar you have made in American business, you'd have less than a penny of gain by buying in the store of value, which people tell you to run to every time you get scared by the headlines or something of the sort.
这真是太惊人了。
It's just remarkable.
在我看来，我们这个国家一直是在你能想象到的最强顺风中前进。
To me that we have operated in this country with the greatest tailwind at our back that you can imagine.
这里简直就是投资者的天堂。
It's an investor's haven.
我的意思是，除非你买错了股票，或者在错误的时候情绪上头，不然你真的是很难失败。
I mean, you can't really fail at it unless you buy the wrong stock or just get excited at the wrong time.
但如果你持有的是 America 的一个广泛组合，而且这些年持续不断地把钱投进去，那和持有一个什么都不会产出的东西相比，根本没法比。
But if you own a cross-section of America and you put your money in consistently over the years, there's just no comparison against owning something that's going to produce nothing.
而且坦白说，这跟你试图在股票里跳进跳出、还要给投资顾问付钱相比，也完全不是一个级别。
And frankly, there's no comparison with trying to jump in and out of stocks and pay investment advisors.
顺便说一句，如果你当时听了我的建议，或者说这种事后看起来总是特别容易给出的建议，如果你真那么做了，当然，你——不过这里有一个问题，伙计。
If you'd followed my advice, incidentally, or this retrospective advice, which is always so easy to give, if you'd followed that, of course, you're— there's one problem, buddy.
对。
Yeah.
那种友善的股票经纪人早就饿死了。
Friendly stockbroker would've starved to death.
我的意思是，你知道，你本来还可以去参加他们的葬礼，算是为他们的遭遇赎个罪，但事实是，就算你只是这么做了，表现也会比非常非常非常大一部分投资专业人士，或者那些很活跃操作的人，要好得多。
I mean, you know, and you could've gone to the funeral to atone for their fate, but the truth is you would've been better off doing this than a very, very, very high percentage of investment professionals have done, or people have done that are active.
想靠频繁折腾还能够持续成功、还能跑赢，真的是非常难的，
It's very hard to move around successfully and beat really what can be done
而其实用一种很放松的理念就能做到不少事情。
with a very relaxed philosophy.
而且你不必——你不必——你不必懂那么多会计知识，或者股市术语，或者别的什么，也不必去猜 Fed 下一次会怎么做，它到底会加息三次、四次，还是两次。
And you do not have to be— you do not have to be— you do not have to know as much about accounting or stock market terminology or whatever else it may be, or what the Fed is going to do next time and whether it's going to raise rates 3 times or 4 times or 2 times.
这些东西，说真的，在一辈子的投资里根本不重要。
None of that counts at all, really, in a lifetime of investing.
真正重要的是，你要有一套自己坚持的理念，明白自己为什么这么做，然后把那些你根本不知道怎么做的事彻底忘掉，不去碰它。
What counts is having a philosophy that you stick with, that you understand why you're in it, and then you forget about doing things that you don't know how to do.
好，说了这么多开心的话，我们接下来就进入提问环节，先从 Carol 开始。
So with all those happy words, we will move on and start the questioning, and we'll start with Carol.