M10:43
这个嘛，Mars 家族还是让他们自己来说吧。不过，如果要比较这五笔交易，呃，GE 那笔是三十亿美元，而 Mars 那笔交易实际上包含了二十一亿美元的 preferred stock，它有一些比较特殊的特征。
Well, we'll let the Mars family speak for themselves, but in terms of comparing those 5 deals, uh, it was $3 billion with GE, and the Mars deal actually involved a $2.1 billion preferred stock, which has some unusual characteristics.
所以你得把它当成一个整体来看。
So you have to look at it as a package.
但重要的是，这几笔交易每一笔发生的时间都不一样，虽然 Goldman 和 GE 这两笔做得时间非常接近，而且市场环境——你知道，你们在电影里听 Charlie 讲过 opportunity costs。
But the important thing is that every one of those deals was done at a different time, although the Goldman and the GE deals were done in close proximity with each other, and market conditions— you know, you heard Charlie in the movie talk about opportunity costs.
我们在这五笔交易里的 opportunity costs，每一笔都不一样。
Our opportunity costs were different in every single one of those 5 transactions.
顺便说一句，就 panic 之后那段时期来看，我们的资金配置本来其实可以做得更好——我本来可以把钱分配得更好。
And incidentally, we could have done a much better— I could have done a much better job of allocating our money, you know, in terms of the post-panic period.
跟五个月之后的情况相比，我在 Goldman 和 GE 上出手算是早了。
I was early on Goldman and GE compared to the situation 5 months later.
不过你知道，我们不光没有完美的预见能力，有时候判断还挺差的。
But, you know, we not only don't have perfect foresight, sometimes it's pretty bad.
但是每一笔交易——我做 Swiss Re 那笔的时候，我并没有在想 Dow Chemical 那笔；那笔大概是一年多以前就已经承诺了。
But each deal— when I did the Swiss Re deal, I was not thinking about the Dow Chemical deal, which was committed to maybe a year-plus earlier.
我当时想的是，我手上这二十七亿美元还能拿去做什么。
I was thinking about what else I could do with $2.7 billion.
所有决策都是这么做出来的。
And that's the way all the decisions are made.
所以这些交易彼此之间并没有关联。
So they are not related.
它们互相之间是没有关系的。
They're not related to each other.
这些决定都要经过这样一个思考过程：去看当天所有能做的事，包括我们手上有多少现金、下周或者下个月还有多大可能做成别的事、当天还有什么别的选择，以及我们以前做过的交易。
They go through a mind that is looking at everything available that day, including the amount of cash we have, the likelihood of being able to do something else next week or next month, what else we can do that day, and past deals we've made.
以前做过的交易其实并不会带来什么影响。
Don't really make any difference.
事实上，人们在商业里常犯的一个错误——有时候甚至是非常大的错误——就是他们总想拿每一笔交易去跟自己这辈子做过的最好那笔交易相比。
In fact, one of the things, one of the errors people make in business, and sometimes it can be a huge error, is that they try and measure every deal against the best deal that they've ever made.
所以他们会说，你知道，我以前做过一笔特别棒的交易——可能是一张签出去的保险保单，可能是买下一家公司，也可能是买入一只股票——然后他们就下定决心，以后绝不再做一笔吸引力不如那笔的交易。
So they say, you know, I've made this wonderful deal for— maybe an insurance policy written, it might be a company bought, it might be a stock bought— and they're determined that they're never going to make a deal that isn't that attractive in the future.
结果实际上，有时候他们等于是把自己踢出了牌局。
And so they, in effect, sometimes they take themselves out of the game.
目标不是做出一笔比你过去任何一笔都更好的交易。
The goal is not to make a better deal than you've ever made before.
目标是做出一笔令人满意的交易。
The goal is to make a satisfactory deal.
也就是在那个时点上，你能做成的最好的一笔交易。
It's the best deal that you can make at the time.
Charlie 会把这个道理类比到婚姻上，我让他自己展开讲讲。
And Charlie relates it to marriage, and I'll let him expand on that.
不，这些——当然了，我们会在不同时间、基于不同的 opportunity costs，做出不同的交易。
No, those are— of course we're going to make different deals at different times based on different opportunity costs.
除了这样，没有别的理性做交易的方法。
There's no other rational way to make deals.