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1997年股东大会 · 巴菲特:规模增长有限的公司也可以是好的投资

39 段 · 3 位说话人 · 原片 4:02
M1
M10:00

我是来自 Tennessee 州 Gallatin 的 Richard Tompkins,我只有两个很简短的问题。

I'm Richard Tompkins from Gallatin, Tennessee, and I have just 2 quick questions.

你们二位能不能谈谈 Kansas Bankers 这个业务,还有它的竞争对手?Kansas Bankers 在这个行业里的护城河到底有多深?还有,他们会不会扩张到现在所在的二十二个或者二十个州之外?

Could both of y'all discuss the Kansas Bankers business and its competitors, how big of a moat Kansas Bankers has in the industry, and if they're going to expand, you know, outside of the 22 or 20 states that they're currently in?

这是第一个问题。

That's A.

然后第二个,就是能不能再多跟我们讲一点你们做的那个五年期折价票据,它是跟 Salomon 股票挂钩的。那是不是一种出货的方式,还是说,跟我们在年报里看到的相比,再多给我们一点信息?

And then secondly, just clue us in a little bit more on the 5-year discount notes that you did that were tied to the Salomon stock, and was that a way to unload it, or just kind of give us a little more than what we saw in the annual?
M2
M20:39

在保险行业里,有时候你得在做一家好公司和做一家大公司之间二选一。很幸运的是,负责 Kansas Bankers Surety 的 Don Towle 选择了做一家好公司。

Sometimes in the insurance business you have a choice between being a good business or a big business, and, and fortunately Don Towle, who runs Kansas Bankers Surety, has chosen a good business.

这是一个非常专业化的业务。

It's a specialized operation.

顾名思义,它的客户是银行家,主要卖的是带有 fidelity coverage 的保单。

That sells, as its name implies, to bankers, primarily policies that have fidelity coverage.

而且在整个美国,这本来就不是一个量很大的业务。

And that is just not a big-volume business in the whole United States.

他们做得特别出色。

They do it exceptionally well.

Don 对每一个——你知道,他了解每一个账户。

Don knows every— you know, he knows every account.

他了解每一笔理赔。

He knows every claim.

他这个人,你知道,把这个业务经营得非常棒。

He, you know, he runs a fabulous operation.

但这不是那种在保持现有业务模式、而且还能继续做好的前提下,规模可以翻一倍或翻两三倍的业务。

But it's not an operation that can double or triple in size doing what it does and doing well.

就是没有那样的机会。

There just aren't— there's not the opportunity there.

另一方面,我觉得要跟 Don 竞争是很难的,因为他带来了那种知识、对客户账户的个人关注,以及诸如此类的因素,这些都是特别大的公司很难复制的。

On the other hand, I think it's tough to compete against Don because he brings an element of knowledge and personal attention to the account and factors of that sort that a really large company would have trouble duplicating.

Charlie,你还想补充一点关于 Kansas Bankers 的看法吗?

Charlie, you want to add anything on Kansas Bankers?
M3
M31:48

对,在美国有很大一类企业,它们非常强,按照自身规模来看能吐出大量现金,但它们没法很理性地大幅扩张。

Yeah, there's a huge class of businesses in America which are very strong and will throw out large amounts of cash in relation to their size, but which can't rationally be expanded very much.

而且有些类型的企业,如果你硬要扩张,就是把钱往无底洞里扔。

And if you try and expand certain kinds of businesses, you're throwing money down the rat hole.

Berkshire Hathaway 这个体系的美妙之处就在于,这样的企业在我们这里非常受欢迎,因为现金会回到总部,再由总部来配置。

The beauty of the Berkshire Hathaway system is that such businesses are very welcome here because the cash comes into headquarters and is allocated there.

如果在子公司层面有什么合理的事情可做,我们当然总是希望去做。

If there's anything sensible to do at the subsidiary level, we always want it done.

但有很多企业——非常多的企业——其实并没有太多办法把这些现金再部署出去。

But there are businesses where— lots of businesses where there isn't much of a way of redeploying the cash.
M2
M22:35

它们之所以有护城河,部分原因就在于,它们的规模和专业技能使得其他机构根本进不来。

Part of the reason they have a moat around them is that they're of a size and have specialized skills that other organizations just can't get into.

我再举一个例子,也是差不多同一个领域。

I'll give you another example, and it's somewhat the same field.

有一家公司叫 Western Surety。

There's a company called Western Surety.

它已经换过几次主人了。

It's changed ownership a couple of times.

十五年前,Charlie 和我去 Sioux Falls 看过他们,当时是想把它买下来。

Charlie and I went up to see them 15 years ago about buying it, at Sioux Falls.

他们做 notary bonds,也做一大堆保费只有五十美元或者二十五美元的业务。

They write notary bonds, and they, they write a whole bunch of things that have $50 premiums or $25 premiums.

他们——当时有这么一家公司,保费规模其实也没有到很多个 million,但他们有三万个代理人。不过每个代理人一年可能只给他们做五百美元的业务,或者一千美元。

They have— there was a company doing not that many millions of premiums, but they had 30,000 agents, but each agent, you know, may have done $500 worth of business with them a year, or $1,000.

那 Chubb 就没法用同样的方式去做这块业务。

Well, Chubb can't go after that business the same way.

我们在 National Indemnity 当然也做不了。

We certainly can't at National Indemnity.

他们有一套效果特别惊人的分销系统,但你没法把两倍或者三倍的销量硬塞进这套分销系统里。

They have a distribution system that works wonders, but you can't pump 2 or 3 times the volume through that distribution system.

而且如果真能塞进去的话,竞争本来就会更多。

And if you could pump it through, there would have been more competition.

所以,确实有一些企业天生就有某些上限。你得小心一点,别自己把自己说服了,以为一个有局限的生意其实还有大得多的潜力,结果最后发现并不是那么回事。

So there are, there are businesses that have certain natural limits that, uh, you know, you want, you want to be careful that you don't talk yourself into thinking a business that has limits and, and find out that it that it really has way more potential.

我的意思是,要是当年 Mr. Candler 认定 Coca-Cola 只对 Atlanta 的人有吸引力,或者类似这么想,那就太可惜了。

I mean, it would have been a shame if Mr. Candler decided that Coca-Cola only appealed to people in Atlanta or something of the sort.

所以这一点上你得稍微谨慎一点。

So you got to be a little careful on that.
M3
M33:47

但是我们——

But we—.
M2
M23:50

像 Don 这样的人,就很擅长判断,你知道,他的竞争优势能把他带到哪里,哪里又是到不了的。

A fellow like Don will be very good at understanding, you know, where his competitive advantages can take him and where they don't take him.

这么多年下来,他在这方面做得非常出色。

He's done a terrific job over the years doing it.

刚才还有第二个问题,是吧?

There was a second question, was there?