2006年股东大会 · 芒格寄语年轻人：没事别老想着成为巴菲特！ — 文稿

M10:00

早上好。

Good morning.

我叫 David Sokol，是来自 Minnesota 州 Minneapolis 的股东，想请教你们，能不能给在场的年轻专业人士一些建议。

My name is David Sokol, shareholder from Minneapolis, Minnesota, looking for some advice you might give the young professionals here.

我大概可以算是你们在年报里说的那种 helper。

I could be classified as one of those helpers you describe in your annual report.

其实，我大多数朋友也都是 helper，还有一些甚至可以算是 super helper。

In fact, most of my friends are helpers, and some could be classified as super helpers.

他们大多数人都很想走出来，去尝试自己一些更有创新性的想法、创新的商业模式、策略之类的东西，但这样做的代价，可能就是要放弃一份相当高的薪水、医疗保险、机票报销，还有我们这些年轻专业人士享受到的那些荒唐又诱人的企业福利。

Most would love to step out and explore some of their more innovative ideas, innovative business models, strategies, and things of that nature, but at the risk of giving up a significant salary, health insurance, flights, all the ridiculous corporate perks that some of us young professionals earn.

对于我们去追求这些梦想，你们会给什么建议？

What advice would you have for us in pursuing those dreams?

M20:49

Charlie，你怎么看？

Charlie, what do you think?

M30:52

嗯，毫无疑问，现在经济体系里的 helper 比以前多多了。

Well, there's certainly a lot more helpers in the economy than there used to be.

而且来这里的这些人，往往都是 helper 这个群体里最优秀的。

And the ones that come here tend to be the very best of the helper class.

所以我觉得，你不该用你在这里遇到的这些人，来判断整个 helper 群体。

So I don't think you should judge the helper class by those you meet here.

我们见到的是其中最顶尖的。

We get the best of them.

至于年轻的 helper 该怎么做，最后才有可能变得像 Warren Buffett 一样，我会说，你能做的最好的事，就是降低你的期望。

And, uh, as to what the young helpers ought to do so that they'll eventually be like Warren Buffett, I would say the best thing you can do is reduce your expectations.

M21:28

这话我觉得我以前听过。

I think I've heard that before.

不过这确实是这样。就像我写过的那样，我也在试着稍微调整一下这个体系，但这是个很有意思的行业，因为专业人士的活动，整体上会相互抵消。

Well, it is, you know, as I wrote about, and I'm trying to tweak the system a little bit, but it is an interesting business in that the activities of the professionals are self-neutralizing.

如果你要——如果你太太要生孩子，你大概还是找个 obstetrician 比较好，而不是自己来。

And if you're going to— if your wife is going to have a baby, you're going to be better off if you call an obstetrician probably than if you do it yourself.

你知道，要是你家水管堵了之类的，你大概也是找 plumber 比较好。

You know, and if your plumbing pipes are clogged or something, you're probably better off calling a plumber.

大多数专业行业，提供的附加价值都超过普通人自己能做到的程度。

Most professions have value added to them above what the layman can accomplish themselves.

但投资这个行业，整体来看并不是这样。

In aggregate, the investment profession does not do that.

所以你会看到有一大群人，每年赚着——我估算大概是一千四百亿美元——可他们整体上所做到的、而且也只能做到的，不过就是某个人自己

So you have a huge group of people making— I put the estimate as $140 billion a year— that in aggregate are and can only accomplish what somebody can do.

所做到的、而且也只能做到的，不过就是某个人自己

Are and can only accomplish what somebody can do.

一年花十分钟，呃，靠自己就能做到的事。

You know, in 10 minutes a year, uh, by themselves.

很难想到还有别的行业是这样的，Charlie。

And it's hard to think of another business like that, Charlie.

M32:52

我想不出有哪个。

I can't think of any.

M22:53

对。

No.

嗯，但它却变成了一个越来越大的行业。

Um, but it's become a bigger and bigger business.

而且，正如我在报告里指出的，这个行业学到的最主要的一点就是：你收费越高，至少在一段时间内，你吸引进来的钱就越多。

And, uh, as I've pointed out in the report, the main thing that's been learned is that the more you charge, at least temporarily, the more money you bring in.

因为人们脑子里有一种想法，觉得价格就等于价值。

That people have this idea that price equals value.

能进入这样一个行业，还是挺有用的。

It's useful to get into a business like that.

有时候我跟商学院的人聊天，你知道，我会问他们，什么才算——什么才算一个伟大的生意，让他们给我举一个。

Sometimes I'm talking to the people at a business school, you know, I ask them what the— what a great— to name me a great business.

当然，伟大的生意之一就是商学院，因为基本上你收费越高，你的声望在某种程度上也就越高。

And of course, one of the great businesses is a business school, because basically the more you charge, the more your prestige is, to some extent.

大家会觉得，一所商学院一年学费收五万美元，那肯定比一年只收一万美元学费的要更好。

And people think that a business school that charges $50,000 a year of tuition's got to be better than one that charges $10,000 a year of tuition.

所以，嗯，这种情况——其实很大一部分这种现象，最近也跑到投资领域里来了。

So, uh, there's some of that that—well, there's a lot of it that's gotten into the investment field recently.

现在你会看到，投资管理里有些很大的板块，收取的费用加总起来，对投资者来说根本算不过来。

And you now have large, uh, certain large portions of investment management that are charging fees that in aggregate cannot work out for investors.

当然了，显然也有一些是行得通的，你知道，但是，但是，嗯，你不可能一直按百分之二加百分之二十那种模式付钱——好年份他们就把钱拿走，碰上坏年份就把合伙基金一关，再重新开一个，诸如此类。

Now, obviously some do, you know, but, but, uh, you cannot be paying people 2% and 20% where they get it in the good years and they fold their partnerships and start another one if they have a bad year and that sort of thing.

经济体系承受不起这种做法。

You can't have that coming out of an economy.

一个经济体每年也就只能给投资者产出个百分之七左右，或者差不多这个水平，你还想让大家扣掉这些费用以后整体更划算。

That's only going to produce, we'll say, you know, 7% or something like that a year for investors and have people net better off.

这根本行不通。

It isn't going to work.

然后你就会面临一个问题：我怎么把那少数几个例外挑出来？

And then the question that you will have is, how do I pick out the few exceptions?

而每一个上门来向你推销这个东西的人，都会告诉你他们自己就是那个例外。

And everyone that calls upon you to sell you this will tell you that they are an exception.

我愿意拿一大笔钱来打赌——跟任何愿意的人都行——你随便点出十家管理规模在五亿美元以上的合伙基金，然后把它们扣完费用后的业绩，拿去跟 S&P 做十年期比较。

And I am willing to bet a significant sum of money, we'll put it up to anybody who wants to name 10 partnerships that are $500 million or more under management and, and pit those after fees against the S&P over a 10-year period.

这样一来，嗯，你知道，就能避开幸存者偏差之类的那些问题。

And, uh, you know, it gets away from the survivorship bias and all that kind of thing.

不过我们——虽然这种事大概也不会真的发生——但确实会有少数几家，少数几家会做得很好。

But we—and it isn't going to happen, but a few will, a few will do well.

它们注定会做得不错。

They're bound to do well.

而且，嗯，你知道，我只是——其实我觉得，我的确知道怎么挑出几个会做得好的。

And, uh, you know, I just—and I actually, I think I do know how to pick a few that will do well.

我的意思是，我过去就这么做过，一九六九年我结束我自己的 partnership 的时候就是这样。

I mean, I did it in the past when I wound up my own partnership in 1969.

我当时让大家去找 Bill Ruane 或者 Sandy Gottesman，不管他们去哪一家，结果都会是非常好的决定。

I told people to go to either Bill Ruane or Sandy Gottesman, and that would have been a very good decision, whichever place they went.

所以，如果你对这个人了解得足够多，知道他过去做得怎么样，也足够了解他的个性、人品、诚实程度，以及一大堆别的因素。

So, if you know enough about the person, know enough how they've done in the past, know enough about their personality, and honesty and a whole bunch of things.

我觉得，偶尔你是可以非常聪明地选出一个投资管理人的，但如果你是坐在某个州里管理养老基金，外面有五十个人轮番来拜访你，我不觉得你还能做到这一点。

I think that occasionally you can make a very intelligent choice in picking an investment manager, but I don't think you can do it if you're sitting running a pension fund in some state and you have 50 people calling on you.

你最后选上的，往往会是最会推销自己的人，而不是最会投资的人。

You're going to, you're going to go with the ones that are the best salespeople and not the ones that are best investors.

M36:05

Charlie？

Charlie?

对，说到州养老基金投资这个话题，我觉得，只要是以任何方式招待州养老基金的官员，都应该算犯罪；而如果你自己是州养老基金官员，还接受这种招待，我觉得也应该算犯罪。

Yeah, on that state pension fund investment subject, I think it ought to be a crime to entertain in any way a state pension fund official, and I think it ought to be a crime if you are a state pension fund official to accept the entertainment.

现在美国很多投资管理行业里的情况，真不是什么好看的场面。

It's not a pretty scene, a lot of investment management in America now.

而且人性就是这样，钱的数额又这么大，我觉得这事儿也改善不了多少。

And human nature being what it is, and the amounts of money being what they are, I don't think much is going to be improved.

M26:46

好吧，我们本来是想让大家带着个好心情去吃午饭的。

Well, we wanted to leave you in a good mood for lunch.

所以我们现在先休息，差不多四十五分钟以后回来。

So we will break now, and we'll come back in about 45 minutes or so.

还有在其他分会场的各位，到那个时候，人群会因为某种说不清的原因少一些，你们就都可以到这边主会场来，咱们大概四十五分钟后见。

And those of you who are in the other rooms, by then the crowd thins for some unexplainable reason, and you can all join us here in the, in the main room, and we'll be back in about 45 minutes.

谢谢。

Thank you.