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1998年股东大会 · 巴菲特:什么情况下我会卖出一家公司的股票

44 段 · 3 位说话人 · 原片 2:51
M1
M10:00

早上好。

Good morning.

我叫 Jed Corey。

My name is Jed Corey.

我来自马里兰州的 Gaithersburg。

I'm from Gaithersburg, Maryland.

我只是想谢谢您分享自己的智慧。

I just want to thank you for sharing your wisdom.

我的问题是,您用什么标准来卖出股票?

And my question is, what criteria do you use to sell stock?

我大概明白您是怎么买股票的,但不太确定您是怎么卖的。

I kind of understand how you buy it, but I'm not sure how you sell.

好的。

Yeah.
M2
M20:22

最好的做法,是买一家你永远都不想卖掉的公司的股票。

Well, the best thing to do is buy a stock that you don't ever want to sell.

我的意思是,这就是我们一直在努力做的事。

I mean, that— and that's what we're trying to do.

我们买下一整家企业时,也是同样的道理。

And that's true when we buy an entire business.

我的意思是,我们买下了 GEICO 的全部股份,也买下了 See's Candies 和 Buffalo News 的全部股份。

I mean, we've bought all of GEICO, or we've bought all of See's Candies or the Buffalo News.

我们买这些企业,可不是为了再转手卖掉。

We're not buying those to resell.

我的意思是,我们想买的是这样一家企业:即使一辈子都拥有它,我们也会觉得很满意。对于这些企业,我们预计自己会一直持有下去。

I mean, what we're trying to do is buy a business that we will be happy with if we own it the rest of our lives, and we expect to with those.

这个原则同样适用于可以交易的证券。

It's the same principle applies to marketable securities.

可以交易的证券,能给你更多选择。

You get extra options with marketable securities.

显然,你可以更容易地继续增持。

You can, you, you can add to holdings, obviously easier.

我们不可能持有一家企业超过百分之百的股份,但如果我们持有一家企业百分之二的股份,而且在某个价格上喜欢它,我们就可以继续买入,把持股比例提高到百分之四或百分之五。

We can never own more than 100% of a business, but if we own 2% of a business and we like it, at a given price, we can add and have 4 or 5%.

所以,这算是一个优势。

So that's, that's a— that's an advantage.

有时候,如果我们需要资金转到另一个行业,就像去年那样,我们会减持一部分持仓,但这完全不代表我们看空那些企业。

Sometimes if we, if we need money to move to another sector like we did last year, we will trim from some holdings, but that doesn't mean we're negative on those businesses at all.

我的意思是,我们认为它们都是非常优秀的企业,否则我们也不会持有它们。

I mean, we think they're wonderful businesses or we wouldn't own them.

还有一种情况是,如果我们需要资金去做其他事情,我们也会卖出。

And we would sell, uh, A, if we needed money for other things.

我在一九五一年买入的 GEICO 股票,

The GEICO stock that I bought in 19— '51.

在一九五二年卖掉了。

I sold, uh, in 1952.

后来在一九七六年出现问题之前,它的价值曾经涨到我买入价格的一百多倍。

It was, you know, went on to be worth 100 or more times before the 1976 problems, 100 or more times what I'd paid.

但当时我需要钱去做别的事情。

But I needed the money to do something else.

所以,如果你需要资金去做其他事情,就可以卖出。

So you sell if you need money for something else.

如果你认为不同类型市场之间的估值出现了明显失衡,也可以卖出。

You may sell if you believe that valuations between different kinds of markets are, are somewhat out of whack.

去年我们确实因为这个原因减持了一点。

And, uh, you know, we, we have done a little trimming last year in that matter.

但这很可能是个错误。

But that could well be a mistake.

我的意思是,对于一家优秀的企业,真正应该做的,就是死死地持有它。

I mean, the real thing to do with a great business is just hang on for dear life.

Charlie?

Charlie?
M3
M31:57

是的。不过,真正发生的卖出,最理想的情况是,你找到了一个自己喜欢得多的投资标的。

Yes, but the sales that do happen, the ideal way is when you find something you like immensely better.

这不是很明显吗?

Isn't that obvious?

这才是最理想的卖出方式。

That's the ideal way to sell.
M2
M22:11

顺便说一句,最理想的买入,是你已经喜欢某样东西,而它的售价又低到让你觉得应该再多买一些。

And incidentally, the ideal purchase is to find—to have something that you already like be selling at a price where you feel like buying more of it.

我的意思是,过去在某些情况下,我们可能本来应该更多地这么做。

I mean, we probably should have done more of that in the past in some situations.

但这就是可流通证券的好处。

But that's the beauty of marketable securities.

你确实会发现,如果你投资的是一家非常出色的企业,你会周期性地得到机会,把持仓加倍,或者做类似的事情。

You really do—if you're in a wonderful business, you do get a chance periodically maybe to double up in it or something of the sort.

如果市场,也就是股市,跌到比现在便宜很多的水平,我们可能会买入更多已经持有的那些企业。

If the market, if the stock market were to sell a lot cheaper than it is now, we would probably be buying more of the businesses that we already own.

它们肯定会是我们最先考虑的对象。

They would certainly be the first ones that we would think about.

因为它们是我们最喜欢的企业。

They're the businesses we like the best.

Charlie?

Charlie?

没什么要补充的了。

Nothing more.

好,下面是第七区。

Okay, Zone 7.