M11:00
嗯，我不觉得我会——我不觉得我有那么多在谈科技公司，不过事实是，我们确实对 IBM 做了一笔很大的投资。
Well, I don't think I would— I don't think I've talked that much about tech companies, but the truth is we made a large investment in IBM.
我对 IBM 下了一笔很大的注，但结果并没有那么理想。
I made a large investment in IBM, which has not turned out that well.
我们倒是没有亏钱，但考虑到这轮牛市的表现，它明显是个严重跑输大盘的投资。
We haven't lost money, but in terms of the bull market we've been in, it's been a significant laggard.
然后就在比较近的时候，我们又在 Apple 上建了很大的仓位。就某些经济特征来说，我其实更把它看成一家消费品公司，虽然从这个产品本身能做到什么，以及别人未来可能会怎么在某些方面超越它来看，它当然又有非常强的科技属性。
And then fairly recently, we took a large position in Apple, which I do regard as more of a consumer goods company in terms of certain economic characteristics, although it has a huge tech component in terms of what that product can do or what other people might come along to do to leapfrog it in some way.
不过我，我，嗯，我想我最后大概会是——当然不敢保证——但我想我最后大概会是一比二，而不是零比二。
But I, I, um, I think I'll, I think I'll end up being— no guarantees— but I think I'll end up being 1 for 2 instead of 0 for 2.
不过这个还得走着瞧。
But we'll find out.
Charlie？
Charlie?
我，我可丝毫不会假装自己在智力层面上，能跟那些对科技感兴趣的十五岁孩子相提并论。
I, I make no pretense whatsoever of, of being on the intellectual level of some 15-year-old that's got an interest in tech.
不过我觉得，我也许对消费者行为还是有一些理解和洞察的。
I think I may know, have some insights into consumer behavior.
而且我当然可以拿到很多关于消费者行为的信息，然后再试着从中推断，这意味着未来消费者行为大概率会怎么发展。
I certainly, uh, can get a lot of information on consumer behavior and then try to draw inferences about what that means about what consumer behavior is likely to be in the future.
不过我们会发现——还有一点我可以保证，就是我在 marketable securities 上一定也会犯错，而且我犯过的错也不只是出现在 tech 这个领域。
Uh, but we will find— the one— the other thing I'll guarantee is I'll make some mistakes on marketable securities, and I've made them in other areas than, uh, than tech.
所以你不可能做到打击率百分之百，你知道，不管你尽量把自己限定在哪些行业里。
Uh, so you'll not bat 1,000, you know, no matter what industries you, you stick— you try to stick with.
我对保险还是相当了解的，但这些年来，我想我们在某只保险股上，大概也亏过一两次钱。
I know insurance pretty well, but I think we probably lost money on an insurance stock perhaps, you know, once or twice over the years.
所以啊，没人能做到打击率百分之百。
So it, uh, you don't bat 1,000.
不过说真的，过去这些年——其实准确地说，是从我出生到现在——我并没有真正获得什么关于 tech 的新知识。
But I have gained no real knowledge about tech in the last— well, since I was born, actually.
Charlie？
Charlie?
我觉得你买 Apple 是个非常好的信号。
I think it's a very good sign that you bought Apple.
这说明两种情况里的其中一种：要么你疯了，要么你在学习。
It shows either one of two things: either you've gone crazy or you're learning.
我更倾向于——我更倾向于后一种，也就是你在学习。
I prefer the— I prefer the learning explanation.
嗯，其实我也是这么想的。
Well, so do I, actually.