M10:12
嗨，我是 Bill Ackman。
Hi, I'm Bill Ackman.
我是 Pershing Square Capital Management 的 CEO，今天我想跟你聊聊，关于金融和投资你需要知道的一切。
I'm the CEO of Pershing Square Capital Management, and I'm here today to talk to you about everything you need to know about finance and investing.
而且我会在一个小时之内讲完，讲完你就可以上手了。
And I'm going to get it done in an hour, and you'll be ready to go.
那我们开始吧。
So let's begin.
为了让你更好地理解金融，以及企业和投资企业相关的一些基础术语，我会用一个柠檬水摊的例子来说明。
In order for you to get a better sense of finance and some of the basic terms associated with a business and investing in a business, I'm going to use the example of a lemonade stand.
我们要一起做生意。
We're going to go into business together.
我们要开一个柠檬水摊。
We're going to open up a lemonade stand.
我之所以用柠檬水摊这个例子，是因为它是一个非常简单的方式，能帮你理解企业最基础的东西：怎么理解一个企业，企业是怎么运作的，企业怎么产生利润，创业时融资需要涉及哪些事，还有当你准备把投资变现，或者先把一部分钱落袋为安的时候，该怎么做。
So the reason why I'm using the example of a lemonade stand is it's a very simple way to understand the basics of a business, how to understand how a business works, how a business generates profits, what's involved in raising capital to start a company, what you do when you're ready to decide to monetize your investment or take some money off the table.
通过像柠檬水摊这样一个非常简单的小型 startup business，你就能理解这里面的每一个概念。
You'll be able to understand each of these concepts through the very simple lens of a small startup business like a lemonade stand.
我们要一起做生意。
We're going to go into business together.
我们要创办一家公司。
We're going to start a company.
我们要开一个柠檬水摊。
And we're going to start a lemonade stand.
不过我今天手上没有钱，所以为了把这个生意开起来，我得先从投资人那里融资。
And now I don't have any money today, so I'm going to have to raise money from investors to launch the business.
那我该怎么做呢？
So how am I going to do that?
我会先成立一家 corporation。
Well, I'm going to form a corporation.
这就是向州政府提交一份简单的注册文件，然后给你的企业起个名字。
It's a little filing that you make with the state, and you come up with a name for your business.
我们就叫它 Bill's Lemonade Stand。
We'll call it Bill's Lemonade Stand.
然后我们要从外部投资人那里融资。
And we're going to raise money from outside investors.
我们刚开始只需要一点启动资金。
We need a little money to get started.
所以我们会让公司的起始股本是 一千 股。
So we're going to start our business with 1,000 shares of stock.
这个数字其实就是我们自己定的。
We just made up that number.
然后我们再按每股 一 美元，卖出 五百 股给一位投资人。
And we're going to sell 500 shares more for $1 each to an investor.
这位投资人会投入 五百 美元。
The investor is going to put up $500.
我们这边出的是名字和创意。
We're going to put up the name and the idea.
我们会持有 一千 股。
We're going to have 1,000 shares.
他会持有 五百 股。
He's going to have 500 shares.
他花了这 五百 美元，会拥有这家企业三分之一的股份。
He's going to own a third of the business for his $500.
那我们的生意在一开始值多少钱呢？
So what's our business worth at the start?
嗯，值 一千五百 美元。
Well, it's worth $1,500.
因为银行里有 五百 美元现金，再加上一千美元，因为这个点子是我想出来的。
We have $500 in the bank plus $1,000 because I came up with the idea.
好。
Okay.
给这家公司。
For the company.
现在呢，我需要的不只是五百美元，所以我该怎么办呢？
Now, I'm going to need a little more than $500, so what am I going to do?
我打算去借点钱。
I'm going to borrow some money.
我会跟一个朋友借，他会借给我二百五十美元，我们会为这笔贷款每年付他百分之十的利息。
I'm going to borrow from a friend, and he's going to lend me $250, and we're going to pay him 10% interest a year for that loan.
那现在，为什么我们要借钱，而不是直接多卖一点股票呢？
Now, why do we borrow money instead of just selling more stock?
因为借钱的话，我们自己能保留更多股票，所以如果这个生意做成功了，我们最后拿到的利润比例就会更高。
Well, by borrowing money, we keep more of the stock for ourselves, so if the business is successful, we're going to end up with a bigger percentage of the profits.
好，现在我们来看看，这个生意写在纸面上是什么样子。
So now we're going to take a look at what the business looks like on a piece of paper.
我们要看一个叫 balance sheet 的东西，balance sheet 会告诉你这家公司现在是什么状况，你有哪些 assets，有哪些 liabilities，还有你的 net worth，也就是 shareholders' equity，是多少。
We're going to look at something called a balance sheet, and a balance sheet tells you where the company stands what your assets are, what your liabilities are, and what your net worth or shareholders' equity is.
如果看你的 assets，在这个例子里，我们筹到了五百美元。
If you take your assets, in this case we've raised $500.
作为这五百美元的交换，出钱的那个人只拿到了这门生意三分之一的股份。
In exchange for the $500, the person who put up the money only got a third of the business.
另外三分之二归我们，因为是我们创办了这家公司。
The other two-thirds is owned by us for starting the company.
那这个生意的 goodwill 就是一千美元。
Well, that's $1,000 of goodwill for the business.
我们借了二百五十美元。
We borrowed $250.
那也就是说，我们欠了二百五十美元。
Well, we're going to owe $250.
这就是 liability。
That's a liability.
所以，我们通过卖股票拿到了五百美元现金，又通过举债筹到了二百五十美元；同时我们欠着一笔二百五十美元的贷款。这样一来，这家 corporation——你在图表上会看到——它的 shareholders' equity 是一千五百美元。
So we got $500 in cash from selling stock, $250 from raising debt, And we owe a $250 loan and we have a corporation that has, and you'll see on the chart, shareholders' equity of $1,500.
这就是我们的起点。
So that's our starting point.
现在我们继续往下讲。
Now let's keep moving.
要开这家公司，我们需要做什么呢？
What do we need to do to start our company?
我们得有一个 lemonade stand。
Well, we need a lemonade stand.
这个大概要花三百美元。
That's going to cost us about $300.
这叫 fixed asset。
That's called a fixed asset.
它跟 lemon、sugar 或者 water 不一样，这是一种像 building 那样的东西。
Unlike a lemon or sugar or water, this is something that you Like a building.
你把它买下来，再把它建起来。
You buy and you build it.
它会随着时间慢慢损耗，但它属于 fixed asset。
It wears out over time, but it's a fixed asset.
然后你还需要一些 inventory。
And then you need some inventory.
做 lemonade 需要什么呢？
What do you need to make lemonade?
你需要 sugar。
Well, you need sugar.
你需要 water。
You need water.
你需要柠檬。
You need lemons.
你需要杯子。
You need cups.
你还需要一些小容器，可能还要准备一些餐巾纸。
You need little containers and perhaps some napkins.
你还得准备足够的原料，比方说，得够我们创业开张时做出五十加仑的柠檬水。
And you need enough supplies to, let's say, have 50 gallons of lemonade in our startup of our business.
那么，五十加仑大概能做出八百杯柠檬水，这样我们就可以开始了。
Now, 50 gallons gets us about 800 cups of lemonade, and we're ready to begin.
现在我们再重新看一下资产负债表。
Let's take a new look at the balance sheet.
到这一步，我们已经花掉了五百美元。
So now we've spent $500.
银行里只剩下二百五十美元了，不过我们的固定资产现在是三百美元。
We only have $250 left in the bank, but our fixed assets are now $300.
那就是我们的柠檬水摊。
That's our lemonade stand.
我们的存货是二百美元。
Our inventory is $200.
这就是那些原料和用品，也就是我们做柠檬水需要的柠檬之类的东西。
Those are the supplies and things, the lemons that we need to make the lemonade.
Goodwill 没有变化，还是一千美元。
Goodwill hasn't changed at $1,000.
所以我们的总资产是一千七百五十美元。
So our total assets are $1,750.
而且我们还是欠借钱给我们的那个人二百五十美元。
And we still owe $250 to the person who lent us the money.
股东权益没有变化。
Shareholder equity hasn't changed.
所以我们还没有赚到钱。
So we haven't made any money.
我们做的只是把现金转成了其他资产，而这些资产是我们想让生意做成功所需要的。
All we've done is we've taken cash and we've turned it into other assets that we're going to need to succeed in our business.
也就是这个柠檬水摊生意。
Lemonade stand business.
接下来我们来做一些假设，看看这个生意随着时间推移会经营得怎么样。
So let's make some assumptions about how the business is going to do over time.
我们假设一年能卖出八百杯柠檬水。
We're going to assume we're going to sell 800 cups of lemonade a year.
我们还假设每杯可以卖一美元，而经营这个柠檬水摊的人力成本大概是一年五百三十美元。
We're going to assume that each cup we can sell for $1, and it's going to cost us about $530 per year to staff our lemonade stand.
好，现在我们来看一下利润表。
So now let's take a look at the income statement.
利润表讲的是盈利能力，也就是这个生意创造了多少收入，有哪些支出，最后给公司所有者剩下多少。
So the income statement talks about the profitability, about the revenues that the business generated, what the expenses are, and what's left over for the owner of the company.
我们有一个柠檬水摊。
So we've got one lemonade stand.
这个摊位卖出八百杯柠檬水，每杯收一美元，所以一年大概能产生八百美元的收入。
We're selling 800 cups of lemonade at our stand, charging $1, so we're generating about $800 a year in revenue.
然后我们会在存货上花二百美元。
Now we're spending $200 on inventory.
这里有一个科目叫 COGS。
There's a line item here called COGS.
它代表的是 cost of goods sold。
That stands for cost of goods sold.
我们还有 depreciation，因为我们的柠檬水摊用久了会有些磨损，五年之后就差不多用旧了，所以它按五年折旧。
We have depreciation because our lemonade stand gets a bit beat up over time and it wears out over 5 years, so it depreciates over 5 years.
还有 labor expense，也就是雇人实际去倒柠檬水、向顾客收钱的成本。
We've got our labor expense for people to actually pour the lemonade and collect cash from customers.
这样我们就有利润了，我们有 EBIT，也就是息税前利润，是十美元。
And we have a profit, we have EBIT, and that's earnings before interest and taxes, of $10.
这差不多就是这门生意的税前利润。
That's kind of our pretax profit for the business.
我们其实没赚到多少钱，因为你把这十美元的税前利润跟我们的营收一比，利润率大概只有百分之一点三。
We didn't make very much money because you take that pretax profit of $10 and you compare it to our revenues, it's about a 1.3% margin.
这个利润水平并不算高。
That's not a particularly high profit.
现在我们还得支付债务利息。
Now we've got to pay interest on our debts.
这样一来我们就亏了十五美元，然后虽然不用交税，但说到底我们还是亏钱了。
And we have a loss of $15, and then we don't have any taxes, but at the end of the day, we still lose money.
那我们还要继续投资这门生意吗？
Should we continue to invest in the business?
我们第一年就亏钱了。
We've lost money in the first year.
是不是该放弃了？
Is it time to give up?
好，我们来想想看。
Well, let's think about it.
我们来做一些预测，看看接下来几年这家公司会是什么样子。
Let's make some projections about what the company is going to look like over the next several years.
我们假设把这门生意产生的所有现金都拿去买更多的 lemonade stands，这样我们就能继续增长。
Let's assume that we take all the cash the business generates and we're going to use it to buy more lemonade stands so we can grow.
再假设我们不从公司里拿出任何钱。
Let's assume we're not going to take any money out of the company.
也就是说，我们不发股息。
Let's— we're not going to pay a dividend.
我们会把所有钱都留在公司里，再投入进去。
We're going to keep all the money in the company and reinvest it.
随着我们的品牌逐渐做起来，我们每年都可以把价格稍微提高一点。
As we build our brand, we can charge a little more each year.
所以我们打算每年每杯 lemonade 涨五美分。
So we're going to raise our prices about a nickel, 5 cents more for each cup of lemonade each year.
然后我们再假设，每个摊位每年能多卖百分之五的杯数。
And then we're going to assume we can sell 5% more cups per stand per year.
所以这里面就内含了增长的假设。
So we've got built-in growth assumptions.
那现在我们来看看这家公司。
So now let's take a look at the company.
来看这张图表。
So take a look at this chart.
你会看到，第一年我们一开始只有一个 lemonade stand。
You'll see in year 1 we start out with 1 lemonade stand.
我们每年增加一个，到第五年的时候会增长到七个，因为我们有一个大规模扩张计划。
We add 1 a year, and then we— by year 5 we're up to 7 because we've got a big expansion plan.
我们每杯的价格每年涨五美分，营收从八百美元开始，然后增长得相当快。
Our price per cup goes up a nickel a year, and our revenue goes from $800 and starts to grow fairly quickly.
这种增长一部分来自每杯 lemonade 价格的提高，另一部分也来自开设更多摊位。
And the growth comes from increased prices for cups of lemonade, and it also comes from opening more stands.
所以到第五年，我们的营收接近八千美元。
So by year 5 we have almost $8,000 in revenue.
我们的成本相对比较稳定，也就是 lemonade 和糖这些成本。
Our costs are relatively constant, which is lemonade and the sugar.
这部分大概是一千七百零二美元。
That's about $1,702.
随着越来越多的摊位随着时间推移开始磨损，我们还会有折旧。
We have depreciation as more and more stands start to wear out over time.
我们还有人工成本。
We've got labor expense.
但到了第五年，这门生意其实已经做得相当不错了。
But by year 5, the business is actually doing pretty well.
我们的利润率从百分之一点三，提高到了百分之二十八以上。
We went from a 1.3% margin to over a 28% margin.
所以这门生意现在已经上规模了。
So the business is now up to scale.
我们开始能够覆盖一部分成本了。
We're starting to cover some of our costs.
我们在增长。
We're growing.
我们现在每年还是要为贷款支付二十五美元的利息。
We're still paying $25 a year in interest for our loan.
到第五年年底，在付完利息之后、缴税之前，我们的利润有两千三百美元。
And we have earnings before taxes after interest of $2,300 by the end of year 5.
所以我们往这门生意里投了五百美元，又借了两百五十美元，到第五年的时候，我们赚了两千三百美元的利润。
So we put $500 into the business, we borrowed $250, and by year 5 we're making a profit of $2,300.
这听起来相当不错。
That sounds pretty good.
现在我们得给政府交税了。
Now we have to pay taxes to the government.
大概是百分之三十五。
That's about 35%.
到第五年，我们的净利润——也就是利润的另一种说法——有一千五百美元左右，差不多每股一美元。
And we generate net income, or another word for profits, of $1,500 by the 5th year, and about $1 a share.
所以你这么想，我们那位朋友拿出五百美元，买了五百股股票。
So if you think about this, our friend put up $500 to buy 500 shares of stock.
他付的是一美元一股。
He paid $1.
五年之后，如果我们的生意发展符合预期，那他实际上每股能赚一美元的利润。
And after 5 years, if our business goes as we expect, he's actually making $1 a share in profit.
这听起来是一笔相当划算的买卖。
That sounds like a pretty good deal.
我们再来看看现金流量表。
Let's look at the cash flow statement.
随着这门生意越来越赚钱，我们产生的现金也越来越多。
So as the business becomes more and more profitable, we generate more and more cash.
而这些现金会不断积累在公司里。
And the cash builds up in the company.
公司里的现金会从五百美元增长到两千多美元。
We go from $500 of cash in the company to over $2,000 of cash.
在这段期间里就是这样。
Over the period.
再看资产负债表，最开始的时候，股东权益是一千四百九十美元；但随着生意越来越赚钱，这些利润会变成现金，会增加公司的资产，而我们的负债没有变化，所以这门生意会随着时间持续积累价值。
The balance sheet, you know, again, the starting balance sheet had shareholders' equity of $1,490, but as the business becomes more profitable, the profits add to the cash, they add to the assets of the company, our liabilities have not changed, and the business continues to build value over time.
所以再说一次，到第五年年底，我们有四千美元的股东权益，几乎是刚开始时的三倍。
So again, by the end of year 5, we've got $4,000 of shareholder equity, and that's almost 3 times what it was when we started.
那么，这到底是一门好生意，还是一门坏生意呢？
Now, is this a good business or a bad business?
我们该怎么判断它是好还是坏？
How do we think about whether it's good or bad?
有一个思考角度是，看我们取得了多少盈利，相对于投入到这家公司里的钱来说怎么样。
One thing to think about is what kind of earnings are we achieving compared to how much money went into the company.
这家公司在一开始的时候，我们给它的估值是一千五百美元。
Now, this is a business that we valued at $1,500 when we started.
有人出资五百美元，买下了公司三分之一的股份。
Someone put up $500 for a third of the company.
我们给它定的价值是一千五百美元。
We gave it a $1,500 value.
到第五年年底，它赚到的利润已经超过一千五百美元了。
At the end of year 5, it's earning over $1,500 in earnings.
所以，我们投进这家公司的钱，回报已经超过百分之一百了。
So that's over 100% return on the money that we put into the company.
这其实是个相当高的数字。
That's actually quite a high number.
我们一共投入了两千一百美元的资本来建这些 lemonade stands。
We've spent $2,100 in capital building lemonade stands.
到了第五年，我们在这些投入的资本上赚到了两千三百三十六美元。
And we earned $2,336 in year 5 on the capital we invested.
这就是超过百分之一百的资本回报率。
That's over 100% return on capital.
这是一个非常有吸引力的回报。
That's a very attractive return.
盈利增长得非常快。
Earnings have grown at a very rapid rate.
年增长率是一百五十五。
155% per annum.
这真的是一家成长型公司。
This is really a growth company.
而且到第五年，我们的盈利能力已经从百分之一点三提升到了百分之二十八点六。
And our profitability has gone from 1.3% to 28.6% by year 5.
听起来很有吸引力，事实也确实如此。
That sounds pretty attractive, and it is.
那我们再来看看提供贷款的那个人。
So let's look at the person who put up the loan.
这个人出了两百五十美元。
Well, that person put up $250.
而且这门生意一直是赚钱的。
And the business has been profitable.
所以我们能够按每年百分之十的利息付给他，也就是每年二十五美元。
We've been able to pay them their interest of 10% a year, $25 a year.
他也很满意，因为他投出了两百五十美元。
And they're happy because they put up $250.
他的这笔贷款拿到了百分之十的回报。
They're getting a 10% return on their loan.
而且这门生意的价值远远超过两百五十美元。
And the business is worth well more than $250.
我们手上的现金都不止这么多。
We've got more than that in cash.
所以，结果就是，他的位置很安全。
As a result, they're in a safe position.
但他的钱只赚到了百分之十。
But they've only made 10% on their money.
现在我们把这个和股权投资人比较一下，也就是买了这家公司股票的人。
Now let's compare that with the equity investor, the person who bought the stock in the company.
这个人在第五年每股赚了一美元，而他当初每股的投资也是一美元。
That person earned $1 a share in year 5 versus an investment of $1 a share.
所以他的回报超过了百分之一百，或者说大约是百分之一百的投资回报，而放贷的人只有百分之十。
So he's earning over 100%, or about 100% return on his investment, versus only 10% for the lender.
那谁拿到了更好的交易呢？
So who got the better deal?
很明显，是股权投资人。
Obviously, the equity investor.
那么，为什么股权投资人——为什么他们有权赚得比放贷的人多这么多呢？
Now, why did the equity investor—why do they have the right to earn so much more than the lender?
答案是，他们承担了更多风险。
The answer is they took more risk.
如果这门生意失败了，放贷的人有权优先拿到公司清算后前两百五十美元的价值。
If the business failed, the lender is entitled to the first $250 of value that comes from liquidating the company.
所以，如果你把这些 lemonade stands 都卖掉，最后只卖了两百五十美元，那放贷的人就能拿回他全部的钱。
So if you sell off the lemonade stands and you only get $250, the lender gets back all their money.
他们是安全的。
They're safe.
在这个生意运转期间，他们拿到了百分之十的回报。
They got their 10% return while the business was going.
他们还拿回了那二百五十美元。
They got back their $250.
但 equity investor，也就是买股票的人，就血本无归了。
But the equity investor, the person who bought the stock, is wiped out.
因为他们的受偿顺序排在 lender 后面。
Because they come after the lender.
所以，debt 和 equity 的区别到底是什么呢？
So what's, what's the difference between debt and equity?
debt 往往是更安全的投资，因为你对一家公司的资产有更优先的索取权。
Debt tends to be a safer investment because you have a senior claim on the assets of a company.
而且它有很多不同的形式。
And it comes in lots of different forms.
你们都听说过房子的 mortgage debt。
You've heard of mortgage debt on a home.
那就是以房子作抵押的 secured loan。
That's a secured loan secured by a house.
不过，公司的一栋楼也可以有 mortgage debt。
But you can have mortgage debt on a building for a company.
有 senior debt。
There's senior debt.
有 junior debt。
There's junior debt.
有 mezzanine debt。
There's mezzanine debt.
还有 convertible debt。
There's convertible debt.
归根结底，这些全都是 debt。
Bottom line, it's all debt.
只是它们在公司里的优先顺序不同。
It comes in different orders of priority in a company.
而且你收取的利率，和你的保障程度是成反比的。
And the rate you charge is inversely related to your security.
所以，保障越好、风险越低，你有权拿到的利率就越低。
So the better the security and the less risk, the lower the interest rate you're entitled to receive.
贷款越靠后，也就是越 junior，你有权拿到的利率就越高。
The more junior the loan, the higher the interest rate you're entitled to receive.
不过你也可以先不用管这些复杂的细节。
But you can avoid the complexity.
你只需要记住，debt 是排在最前面的。
All you need to think about is debt comes first.
它是更安全的一种贷款，但你的盈利空间也有限。
It's a safer loan, but your profit opportunity is limited.
好。那 equity 其实也有不同的形式。
OK. Now the equity also has varying forms.
有一种叫 preferred equity，或者 preferred stock。
There's something called preferred equity or preferred stock.
还有 common equity，或者 common stock。
There's common equity or common stock.
再说一遍，stock 和 equity 基本上是同义词。
And again, stock and equity are basically synonyms.
还有 options，不过今天其实没必要展开讲。
There are options, but really not worth talking about today.
重要的一点是，equity 拿到的是在 debt 全部还清之后剩下的所有东西。
The important point is that equity gets everything that's left over after the debt's paid off.
所以它被叫做 residual claim。
So it's called a residual claim.
那这个剩余索取权的好处是，企业的价值会不断增长。
Now the good thing about the residual claim is that business grows in value.
你不需要再欠贷款人的钱了，但这些增长出来的价值，全都归 stockholder。
You don't owe your lenders anymore, but all that value goes to the stockholder.
所以问题就在于，为什么贷款人只愿意拿百分之十的回报，而 equity 却能赚到高得多的回报率？
So the question is, why was the lender willing to take only a 10% return when the equity earned a much higher rate of return?
答案是，企业刚开始的时候，谁也不知道它最后会不会成功。
And the answer is, when the business started, there was no way of knowing whether it would be successful or not.
贷款人当时是在赌一把：如果这个生意失败了，那他们至少还可以把这个 lemonade stand 卖掉。
And the lender made a bet that if the business failed, well, they could sell off the lemonade stand.
做这个摊位本身花了三百美元。
It cost $300 to make it.
他们还会有一些 lemons，还有一些 lemonade。
They would have some lemons, some lemonade.
就算最后卖出的价格，比他们原来预计的一美元低很多，贷款人还是觉得挺安心的，因为他们大概率能把钱收回来。
Even if they sold at a much lower price than the dollar they originally projected, the lender felt pretty comfortable that they'd get their money back.
对。
Right.
而 stockholder 才是真正在承担风险的人。
Whereas the stockholder is really taking a risk.
他们押注的是公司的盈利能力，而且他们承担着这样的风险：一旦失败，自己的全部投资都会亏光。
They were betting on the profitability of the company, and they were taking a risk that if it failed, they would lose their entire investment.
所以如果企业成功了，他们就应该获得更高的回报，或者说，他们有机会获得更高的回报。
So they were entitled to get a higher return, or had the potential to have a higher return, in the event the business was successful.
那我们来聊聊风险。
So let's talk about risk.
你知道，很多人一提到股市里的风险，想到的就是股价每天上上下下地波动。
You know, a lot of people talk about risk in the stock market as the risk of stock prices moving up and down every day.
但我们认为，那不是你真正应该关注的风险。
We don't think that's the risk that you should be focused on.
你真正该关注的风险是：如果你投资一家企业，你亏钱的概率有多大，会不会出现永久性的损失？
The risk you should be focused on is if you invest in a business, what are the chances that you're going to lose your money, that there's going to be a permanent loss?
当你在考虑拿自己的钱去投资，比较这个投资和那个投资的时候，不要太在意短期内价格是不是波动很大。
When you're thinking about investing your own money and you're thinking about one investment versus another, don't worry so much about whether the price moves up and down a lot in the short term.
真正重要的是，最后你能不能把本金拿回来？
What matters is ultimately, will you get your money back?
你能不能在这笔投资上赚到回报？
Will you earn a return on your investment?
那该怎么理解风险呢？
How do you think about risk?
有一种理解风险的方法，就是把你的风险跟其他选择做比较。
One way to think about risk is to compare your risk to other alternatives.
比如说，你可以买 government bonds。
So you can buy government bonds.
government bonds 现在被认为是风险最低的一种投资形式。
Government bonds are considered today the lowest risk form of investment.
US Treasury 会发行十年期、三年期、五年期的债务。
And the US Treasury issues 10-year, 3-year, 5-year debt.
上面会写明一个固定的利率。
There's a stated interest rate.
按今天的情况来看，十年期 Treasury 的回报大概是百分之三。
And today, a 10-year Treasury, you earn about a 3% return.
所以你拿一千美元借给政府。
So you give your government $1,000.
你每年能拿到三十美元的利息。
You get $30 a year in interest.
十年到期之后，你的一千美元本金会还给你。
At the end of 10 years, you get your $1,000 back.
所以这是一种非常非常安全的投资。
So that's very, very safe.
这就算是给它托了个底。
And that sort of provides a floor.
那很明显，如果你要放贷，你可以把钱借给政府，赚百分之三。
Now, obviously, if you're going to make a loan, you can lend money to the government and earn 3%.
那如果你把钱借给一个柠檬水摊，你肯定会希望赚得明显更多。
Well, if you can lend money to a lemonade stand, you want to earn meaningfully more.
所以在这个例子里，放贷的人收百分之十的利息。
So in this case, the lender is charging a 10% rate of interest.
为什么是百分之十？
Why 10%?
因为他们想在借给政府能赚到的收益之上，再拿到一笔相当可观的利差，毕竟一个刚起步的柠檬水摊生意风险更高。
Because they want to earn a nice fat spread over what they can make lending to the government, because a startup lemonade stand business is a higher-risk business.
股权投资人看问题的方式也差不多。
Equity investors sort of think about things similarly.
所以估值越高——不对，是业务风险越高，股权投资人期望的回报率也就越高。
So the higher the valuation— the more risky the business, the higher the rate of return the equity investor is going to expect.
而业务风险越低，股权投资人期望的回报也就越低。
And the lower the-risk business, the lower the return the equity investor is going to expect.
而且股权投资人拿回报的方式，不像放贷的人那样拿利息。
And equity investors don't get interest the same way a lender does.
股权投资人拿到的是一种可能性，也就是在公司整个经营过程中，有机会收到分红。
What equity investors get is they get the potential to receive dividends over the life of a company.
我们来说说融资。
Let's talk about raising capital.
你创办了这个柠檬水生意。
You started this lemonade business.
那你一开始做这个，本来就是为了赚钱。
Now, the point of this was to make money in the first place.
生意做得非常好，可是我——作为创办这个生意的人，起了名字，想了概念，雇了所有员工，到头来我自己一分钱都还没拿到。
Business is doing very well, yet I've— as a— as having started the business, coming up with a name and the concept, hired all the people, I've made nothing.
所以这个生意是升值了，但我的钱在哪里呢？
So the business has grown in value, but where's my money?
比如说，我需要钱买辆车。
I need money to buy a car, for example.
所以我想买一辆四千美元的车。
So I want to buy a car for $4,000.
我有哪些选择？
What are my choices?
我能怎么做？
What can I do?
嗯，我们把这个生意产生的所有现金都重新投回到生意里了。
Well, we've taken all the cash the business has generated, we reinvest it in the business.
好消息是，我们把这些钱都拿来买更多的柠檬水摊了，而且这些柠檬水摊越来越高产，让整个生意的价值增长得越来越快。
Now the good news is we've taken all that money, we've been able to use it to buy more lemonade stands, and these lemonade stands are more and more productive, and it's grown the value of the business faster and faster.
那我的其他选择也包括，比如说，不让生意扩张得这么快，不再继续投资更多柠檬水摊，而是直接给我自己发分红。
Now my alternatives could include, well, instead of growing the business so quickly, instead of investing in more lemonade stands, I could simply have paid dividends to myself.
这么做的好处是，我在过程中就能拿到钱。
Now, the good news about that is I get money along the way.
但坏处是，这个生意就不会增长得那么快了。
But the bad news about that is the business wouldn't grow as quickly.
而如果你拥有的是一个像这家柠檬水公司这样利润很高的生意，而且我们每开一个新摊都能赚到几百美元，那继续投资就是合理的。
And if you have a business as profitable as this lemonade stand company and we can earn, you know, hundreds of dollars in each new stand, it makes sense to keep investing.
那我要怎么做，才能既让我的生意继续运转、继续增长、抓住这些机会，同时又能先落袋一些钱呢？
Well, how do I keep my business going and growing, taking advantage of the opportunities, but take some money off the table?
我该怎么做？
How do I do that?
我可以把我的柠檬水摊生意卖掉。
I could sell my lemonade stand business.
你知道，我是在 New York 开始做这个生意的。
You know, I started this one in New York.
也许 New Jersey 有个人想把我买下来，跟我的 lemonade stand 公司做整合。
Maybe there's someone in New Jersey who wants to buy me, consolidate with my lemonade stand company.
问题在于，一旦我把它卖了，之后这个机会再往前发展，我就没法继续参与了。
The problem with that is once I sell it, I can no longer participate in the opportunity going forward.
我是相信这门生意的。
I believe in this business.
我觉得从长期来看，它会非常成功。
I think it's going to be very successful over time.
所以这是一种选择。
So that's one alternative.
另一种选择，除了把公司百分之百卖掉之外，就是卖出公司的一部分。
The other alternative, other than selling 100% of the business, is to sell a piece of the business.
这个我现在也可以私下做。
Now I can do that privately.
我可以去找一个投资人，愿意买这家公司的一部分私募股权。
I can find an investor who wants to buy a private interest in the company.
如果这门生意足够值钱，我就可以卖给他一部分公司，然后我们都能做得很成功。
And if the business is worth enough, I can sell them a piece of the business and we can be successful.
还有一种选择，就是我可以让这家公司上市。
The other alternative is I can take the business public.
IPO，这个缩写代表 initial public offering。
An IPO—the abbreviation stands for an initial public offering.
之所以叫 initial，是因为这是公司第一次上市。
And it's initial because it's the first time a company's going public.
上市的意思是，你把股票卖给广大的社会公众，而不是去找某一个投资人来买公司的部分权益。
Going public means you're selling stock to the broad general public as opposed to finding one investor to buy an interest in the company.
而它叫 offering，是因为你是在给大家一个参与进来的机会。
And it's an offering because you're offering people the opportunity to participate.
有意思的是，IPO 本身并不会让一个人一下子变富。
What's interesting is an IPO doesn't make someone rich.
它真正做的，其实只是把你原本已经拥有的一家公司，拿出一部分卖给公众，然后让它在交易所挂牌。
All it really does is it takes a business that they already own, and it sells a piece of it to the public, and it gets listed on an exchange.
当你决定要让公司上市的时候，为了吸引投资人参与，你就得向公众披露很多信息。
When you decide you want to take your business public, you're going to have to reveal a lot of information to the public in order to attract investors to participate.
而 Securities and Exchange Commission 会非常仔细地研究这份 prospectus。
And the Securities and Exchange Commission, they're going to study this prospectus very carefully.
他们会确保你披露了所有和投资这家公司有关的各种风险，同时你也会有机会介绍这门生意本身。
They're going to make sure that you disclose all the various risks associated with investing in the company, and you're also going to have an opportunity to talk about the business.
这对你来说算是个挺令人兴奋的时刻，因为当你把股票卖给公众时，大多数情况下，这通常是让公司拿到尽可能高价格的方式，但你又不必把公司百分之百都卖给公众。
That's kind of an exciting time for you, because when you sell shares to the public, that's really, in most cases, the way to get the optimally high price for the company, but you don't have to sell 100% of the business to the public.
事实上，通常你只会卖出很小的一部分。
In fact, typically you only sell a small percentage.
其余的你都还能保留。
You get to keep the rest.
你既能保住公司的控制权，又能通过这次 offering 融到钱，而且你还可以用这笔钱去买我们之前说过的那辆车。
You get to keep control of the company, but you get to raise money in the offering, and you can use that money to buy the car that we were talking about before.
不过，在你决定上市，甚至在你决定到底要不要卖之前，最好还是先弄清楚这门生意到底值多少钱。
Now, before you decide to go public or even to sell it at all, it's probably a good idea to figure out what the business is worth.
所以我们来聊聊 valuation，也就是怎么估值——你要怎么判断自己公司的价值？
So let's talk about valuation or how to value—how do you determine the value of your business?
一种思路是，把你的公司拿去和其他类似的公司做比较。
One way to think about the value of your business is to compare it to other similar businesses.
那 stock market 其实就是一个很有意思的观察地方。
Now, the stock market is actually a pretty interesting place to look.
stock market 上列着那些已经向公众出售过股份的公司，你可以在 New York Times、Wall Street Journal，或者 Yahoo Finance、Google 这些网站上，去看 Coke、McDonald's、McDonald's 的股价。
The stock market is a list of companies that have sold shares to the public, and you can look in the New York Times or the Wall Street Journal or online on Yahoo Finance or Google or other sites and look at stock prices for Coke, for McDonald's, McDonald's.
而这些股价告诉你的，就是这家公司的价值是多少。
And what those stock prices tell you is what the value of the company is.
那你又该怎么算出一家公司的价值呢？
And how do you figure out the value of the company?
这个嘛，你先看这只股票现在的股价。
Well, you look at where the stock price is.
然后你数一数公司一共发行在外多少股。
You count how many shares are outstanding.
这个发行在外股数，会列在提交给 SEC 的各种文件里。
Shares outstanding will be listed in various filings with the SEC.
你把发行在外股数乘以股价。
You multiply the shares outstanding times the stock price.
这样你就知道，你为这家公司的股权付出了多少钱。
That tells you the price you're paying for the equity of the company.
所以如果回到我们那个小小的柠檬水摊的例子，我们一共有一千五百股发行在外。
So if you go back to our example of our little lemonade stand, we have 1,500 shares of stock outstanding.
一开始我们按每股一美元卖出去，其中三分之一卖给了一位投资人。
We sold them for $1 initially, 1/3 of them to an investor.
所以这门生意一开始的价值是一千五百美元。
And the business initially had a value of $1,500.
那么，这门生意今天值多少钱呢？
So what is the business worth today?
有一种看法是——我们去看看别的柠檬水摊公司。
Well, one way to look at it—let's look at other lemonade stand companies.
假设其他柠檬水摊公司，不管是在私募市场还是公开市场成交，价格都是盈利的十倍，也就是利润的十倍。
Let's assume other lemonade stand companies have sold either in the private market or the public market for a price of 10 times earnings or 10 times profits.
这样你就能大概知道它值多少钱。
That will give you a sense of value.
那我们再假设，另一家柠檬水摊公司在股市里的交易价格是二十倍 earnings。
So let's assume another lemonade stand company is trading at 20 times earnings in the stock market.
那我们在第五年每股赚了一美元。
Well, we earned $1 per share in year 5.
如果这一个美元套上二十倍的倍数，按照这个可比公司来看，这门生意大概值每股二十美元。
If we put a 20 multiple on that dollar, the business is worth, according to the comparable, about $20 per share.
我们一共有一千五百股发行在外。
We've got 1,500 shares outstanding.
我们用一千五百乘以二十。
We multiply 1,500 times 20.
那现在我们的生意就值三万美元了。
Now our business is worth $30,000.
所以，我们这家公司最开始值一千五百美元。
So we had a company that started out at $1,500.
五年之后，它值三万美元。
Five years later, it's worth $30,000.
这其实相当不错。
That's actually quite good.
那如果四千美元就是我们这门生意合适的估值，我们该怎么融到这四千美元呢？
Well, how do we raise $4,000 if that's the appropriate value for our business?
那如果我们卖出两百股，卖出我们现在每股值二十美元的两百股，我们就能融到刚才说的那四千美元。
Well, if we sold 200 of our shares, 200 of our shares that are today now worth $20 a share, we could raise the $4,000 that we are talking about.
那这会带来什么结果呢？
Now, what would that do?
如果我们在市场上卖出两百股，会发生什么？
What would happen if we sold 200 of our shares in the market?
那我们在这门生意里的权益就会下降，因为——我们现在拥有百分之六十六又三分之二，也就是公司的三分之二。
Well, our interest in the business would go down because we—right today we own 66 2/3%, or 2/3 of the company.
另外三分之一归我们的私人投资人所有。
A third is owned by our private investors.
那如果我们在市场上卖股票，也就是卖出我们自己持有的两百股，我们的持股比例就会从百分之六十七降到百分之五十三。
Well, if we sold stock in the market, if we sold 200 of the shares that we would own, our ownership would go from 67% to 53%.
好消息是，我们依然能控制这门生意，因为在大多数上市公司里，只要持有多数股权，你就能继续控制公司。
The good news there is we'd still have control of the business, because in most public companies, owning a majority allows you to control the business going forward.
但因为公司现在是由公众股东持有的，你就得确保他们的利益得到恰当的代表。
But because the company is now owned by public shareholders, you have to make sure their interests are properly represented.
所以，你得有一个董事会，也就是一群代表股东利益的人，他们有责任确保股东得到公平妥善的对待。
So, you have to have a board of directors, a group of individuals who represent the interests of the shareholders, who have a duty to make sure that their shareholders are treated properly.
而且你也不会再像公司还是 private company 的时候那样有那么大的灵活性，因为你还得考虑其他相关方的利益。
And you wouldn't have the same degree of flexibility you had when you were a private company because you have other constituencies that you need to think about.
那么，IPO 的好处是，股票现在就会有流动性。
Now, the benefit of the IPO is the stock would now be liquid.
会有一个市场让它在公开市场上交易，然后随着时间推移，如果我想卖出更多股票，我就可以这么做；如果有新的投资者想进来，他们也可以买股票，这样我们的股票就有流动性了。
There would be a market where it would trade in the public markets, and then over time, if I wanted to sell more stock, I could do so, or if new investors wanted to come in, they could buy stock, and our stock would now be liquid.
这会让我对这门生意更安心一些，因为从我未来某个时间点退出的能力来说，或者如果我想再融资，我也可以比较容易地在市场上卖股票，因为每天你都可以在网上、或者在 New York Times 之类的地方查到价格，然后你就能大致算出你的企业值多少钱。
It would make me feel better about this business in terms of my ability to, at some point, exit, or if I wanted to raise more money, I could sell stock fairly easily in the market because each day you could look up the price either on the web or in the New York Times or otherwise, and you can figure out what your business is worth.
好，那这跟你有什么关系呢？
OK. Now, how does this matter to you?
我们拿这个柠檬水摊举例，目的就是先给你一个入门概念，讲清楚公司是什么、公司做什么、它们怎么赚钱，以及它们会向投资者提供哪些报告，好让投资者判断这些公司值多少钱。
Now, the purpose of the example of our lemonade stand is just to kind of give you a primer on what companies are, what they do, how they earn profits, what the various reports they provide to investors so investors can figure out what they're worth.
而这场讲座的目的，是让你大概了解一下，当你在考虑拿出自己的一些钱去投资时，需要思考哪些事情——不管你是想投资一个柠檬水摊，还是想投资市场上的一家公司。
And the purpose of this lecture is to give you a sense of some of the things you need to think about when you're thinking about investing perhaps some of your own money, whether you want to invest in a lemonade stand, whether you want to invest in a company on the market.
假设你二十二岁的时候找到了一份相当不错的工作。
Let's assume at 22 you got a pretty good job.
你不是把钱花在各种小玩意儿上、花在豪华公寓上，或者就算不那么豪华的公寓上，或者经常出去喝酒上，而是存下一些钱，开始拿钱去投资。
Instead of spending your money on gadgets or a fancy apartment, or not so fancy apartment, or going out and drinking a fair amount, you put some money aside, you start investing money.
假设你在二十二岁时能存下一万美元，而且从现在到你退休之间，这笔钱每年都能获得百分之十的回报。
Let's say you could save $10,000 at 22, and you can earn a 10% return on that money between now and the time you retire.
那四十三年后你会有多少钱呢？
What would you have in 43 years?
答案是，如果你存下一万美元，之后一分钱都不再追加，把它拿去投资，而且每年都能赚到百分之十，那么到第四十三年，你会有六十万美元。
The answer is, if you put aside $10,000, you don't save another penny, and you invested it and you earned 10% on your money each year, you'd have $600,000 in year 43.
原因是这样的：第一年，你的一万美元会变成一万一千美元。
And the reason for that is, well, in year 1, your $10,000 would become $11,000.
第二年，你的一万一千美元又会再增长百分之十。
In year 2, your $11,000 would grow by 10%.
所以你赚的利息，不只是基于你最初的本金，你还会对上一年赚到的利息继续赚利息。
And so you'd be earning interest not just on your original principal, but you'd earn interest on the interest you'd earned in the previous year.
而这种复利效应，会让钱以一种几乎像指数一样的方式增长。
And that compounding effect allows money to grow in an almost exponential fashion.
当然，如果你的收益率高于百分之十，那你的回报还会更高。
Now, obviously, if you earn more than 10%, you can earn even higher returns.
刚才说的是你在二十二岁时存下一万美元的情况。
Now, that's if you put $10,000 aside at 22.
四十三年后，你会有六十万美元。
You'd have $600,000 in 43 years.
这已经很不错了。
That's pretty good.
那如果你得等到三十二岁才开始呢？
What if you had to wait until you were 32?
问题就在于，到第三十三年的时候，你就只有二十三万二千美元。
The problem there is, by year 33, you'd only have $232,000.
那也许还不够退休。
Maybe that's not enough to retire.
所以这里一个关键点是，如果你想做投资者，那对一个十八岁或十九岁的人来说，你今天最宝贵的资产之一，其实就是年轻。
So a key thing here is, if you're going to be an investor, it's really one of the most valuable assets you have today as someone who's 18 or 19 years old is your youth.
你要尽早开始，这样你的钱才能随着时间慢慢长大。
You want to start early so that your money can grow over time.
那如果你能赚到百分之十五呢？
Now, what if you could earn 15%?
这样能让你更直观地感受到复利到底有多强大。
To give you a better sense of how powerful compounding is.
记住，按百分之十的收益率持续四十三年，你会有六十万美元。
Remember, at 10% for 43 years, you'd have $600,000.
这已经很不错了。
That's pretty good.
但如果你能赚到百分之十五，那你最后就会有四百多万美元。
But if you earned 15%, you'd have over $4 million.
那你的位置就相当不错了。
Now you're in a pretty good position.
所以很显然，聪明地决定把钱投到哪里，会对你的退休资产有巨大的影响。
And so obviously, making smart decisions about where you put your money has a huge difference in what your retirement assets are.
当然了，如果你存下来的不只是一万美元，比如说你每年都能存一万美元，那你的财富就会相当惊人。
Now, obviously, if you put aside more than $10,000, if you could put aside $10,000 each year, then your wealth would be quite enormous.
再举个有意思的例子，如果你是世界上最顶尖的投资者之一，Warren Buffett 就是个很好的例子，如果你能连续四十三年每年赚百分之二十，那你最后会有两千五百万美元。
Now, just for fun, if you were one of the world's great investors, Warren Buffett being a good example, if you could earn 20% per year for 43 years, you'd have $25 million.
也就是说，最初那一万美元的投资，在这段时间里光靠每年百分之二十的回报，就会增长到原来的两千五百倍。
Again, the original $10,000 investment would increase by 2,500 times over that period of time, just by earning a 20% return.
Albert Einstein 说过，宇宙中最强大的力量就是复利。
Albert Einstein said the most powerful force in the universe is compound interest.
所以关键就是，尽早开始，拿到有吸引力的回报，同时避免亏钱，这样你退休的时候日子会过得很不错。
So the key is start early, earn an attractive return, and avoid losing money, and you're going to have a very nice retirement.
好，现在我们来谈谈亏钱的风险。
Okay, now let's talk about the risk of losing money.
现在，假设为了争取百分之二十的回报，你承担了很多风险。
Now, let's assume that in order to try to get a 20% return, you took a lot of risk.
结果就是，每隔十二年，你就会亏掉一半的钱，因为你碰上了市场低谷，或者做了愚蠢的决定。
And it turns out that every 12 years, you lost half your money because you hit a bad patch in the market or you made dumb decisions.
那样的话，你那笔按百分之二十增长、本来能变成两千五百万美元的钱，四十三年后就只值一百八十万美元了。
Well, your $25 million at 20% would now only be worth $1.8 million in 43 years.
所以这里一个关键的成功因素，不只是全力出击、拼命去追求最高回报。
So a key success factor here is not just shooting for the fences, trying to get the highest return.
更重要的是，在长期过程中避免重大亏损。
It's avoiding significant losses over the course of time.
对。
Yeah.
在整个过程中。
Over the period.
好。
OK.
所以就像 Warren Buffett 说的，投资的第一条规则就是永远不要亏钱。
So as Warren Buffett says, rule number 1 in investing is never lose money.
第二条规则就是，永远别忘了第一条。
And rule number 2 is never forget rule number 1.
所以如果你能避免亏损，并且长期拿到有吸引力的回报，只要你能坚持足够久，你就会积累很多钱。
So if you can avoid losses and earn an attractive return over time, you're going to have a lot of money if you can stick at it for a long period of time.
好。
OK.
那么，怎样才能成为一个成功的投资者呢？
So how do you be a successful investor?
现在，我先假设你不会把投资当成自己的职业。
Now, I'm assuming that you're not going to go into the business of investing.
我假设你会去当医生，或者律师。
I'm assuming that you're going to be a doctor or a lawyer.
你会去追求自己真正热爱的事情。
You're going to pursue your passion.
但随着时间推移，你还是会存下一些钱。
But you're going to have some money that you're going to save over time.
接下来，我会就这个话题给你一些我的建议。
And I'm going to give you my advice on the topic.
这不一定是什么最终权威答案，但如果是我妹妹，或者我奶奶，处在同样的位置，我会给她这样的建议。
It's not necessarily definitive advice, but it's the advice I would give my sister, my grandmother, on what she should do if she were in the same position.
我觉得大概应该用这种方式来考虑这个问题。
I think that's probably the right way to think about it.
所以第一点，怎么避免亏钱？
So number one, how do you avoid losing money?
什么是好的投资方向？
What are good places to invest?
嗯，我的第一条建议是，虽然前面讲了那个柠檬水摊的故事，但我还是会避免投资柠檬水摊。
Well, my first piece of advice is, despite the story about the lemonade stand, I'd avoid investing in lemonade stands.
我会避免投资创业型企业。
I'd avoid investing in startup businesses.
对。
Yeah.
就是那种前景还不是很明确的。
Where the prospects are not very well known.
因为还是那句话，你不需要每年赚百分之百，才能积累出一笔财富。
Because again, you don't need to make 100% a year to have a fortune.
你只需要投到一个有吸引力的回报率上，百分之十、百分之十五。
You just need to invest at an attractive return, 10%, 15%.
时间一长，你的钱就会增长得非常可观。
Over a long period of time, your money grows very significantly.
那怎么避开风险最高的投资呢？
So how do you avoid the riskiest investments?
我会——我的建议是，去投资公开交易的证券，投资上市公司，也就是那些在股票市场上交易的公司。
I would— my advice would be to invest in public securities, invest in listed companies, companies that trade on the stock market.
为什么呢？
Why?
因为这类企业通常更成熟一些。
Because those businesses tend to be more established.
它们在上市之前，必须达到一些门槛。
They have to meet certain hurdles before they go public.
而且股票有流动性，所以如果你想卖，改主意也来得及。
The stocks are liquid, so you can change your mind if you want to sell.
如果你投的是一个私人的柠檬水摊，除非那门生意变得超级赚钱，不然很难找到人把你手里的投资接过去。
If you invest in a private lemonade stand, it's hard to find someone to take you out of that investment unless that business becomes fabulously profitable.
所以这是第一条建议：投资上市公司。
So that's piece of advice number one: invest in public companies.
第二，你要投资你看得懂的企业。
Number two, you want to invest in businesses that you can understand.
我的意思是，有很多企业是你在日常生活里会接触到的，不管是你因为喜欢去逛而熟悉的一家零售店，还是某个产品，呃，比如你的 iPad，或者你觉得特别棒的某样产品。
What I mean by that is there are lots of businesses that you come in, that you deal with in the course of your day in your personal life, whether it's a retail store that you know because you like shopping there, or it's a product, uh, your, your iPad, or that you know you think is a great product.
但是你得明白——你必须明白这家公司是怎么赚钱的。
But you unders— you have to understand how the company makes money.
有些企业的商业模式实在太复杂了。
The business is just too complicated.
你根本搞不清它们是怎么赚钱的。
You don't understand how they make money.
就算它们过去的业绩记录非常漂亮，我也会避开。
Even if they've had a great track record, I would avoid it.
很多人曾经觉得 Enron 是一家了不起的公司，因为它看起来业绩很好，但真正明白它是怎么赚钱的人非常少。
A lot of people thought Enron was an incredible business because it appeared to have a good track record, but very few people understood how they made money.
避开它是对的。
It was good to avoid it.
另外一个非常重要的标准是，你要在合理的价格买入。
Another very important criteria is you want to invest at a reasonable price.
一家公司可能非常棒，也可能长期以来表现都很好，但如果你买得太贵，你的回报就不会太好。
It could be a fabulous business that's done very well over a long period of time, but if you pay too much for it, you're not going to earn a very good return.
最后一点是，你要投资一家从理论上讲你愿意永远持有的企业。
The last bit is that you want to invest in a business that you could theoretically own forever.
就算股票市场关门十年，你也不会觉得不开心。
If the stock market were to close for 10 years, you wouldn't be unhappy.
我这话是什么意思呢？
What do I mean by that?
还是那句话，如果你想在四十三年的时间里，以百分之十到百分之十五的回报率持续复利增长你的财富，那你真正需要的是一家你可以一直持有下去的企业。
Now, again, if you're going to compound your money at a 10% or 15% return over a 43-year period of time, you really want a business that you can own forever.
你不会希望自己老是得从一个生意换到下一个生意。
You don't want to constantly have to be shifting from one business to the next.
那什么样的企业是你可以永远持有的呢？
And what are businesses that you can own forever?
其实，真正符合这个标准的企业非常少。
Well, there are very few that sort of meet that standard.
也许一个很好的例子就是 Coca-Cola。
Maybe a good example is Coca-Cola.
Coca-Cola 的好处在于，它是一个相对很容易理解的生意。
What's good about Coca-Cola is it's a relatively easy business to understand.
你能明白 Coke 是怎么赚钱的。
You understand how Coke makes money.
他们把配方或者糖浆卖给装瓶商和零售终端，而且每卖出一杯 Coca-Cola，他们都会赚到利润。
They sell a formula or syrup to bottlers and to retail establishments, and they make a profit every time they serve a Coca-Cola.
未来很长一段时间里，人们都会喝很多 Coca-Cola。
People are going to drink a lot of Coca-Cola for a very long period of time.
世界人口还在增长。
The world's population is growing.
他们几乎在全球每一个国家都有销售。
They sell in almost every country in the world.
而且每一年，人们都会多喝一点 Coca-Cola。
And each year, people drink a little bit more Coca-Cola.
所以这是一个相当容易理解的生意。
So it's a pretty easy business to understand.
而且我觉得，这个生意也不太可能因为技术进步或者别的什么新产品，就被竞争掉。
And it's also a business that I think is unlikely to be competed away as a result of technology or some other new product.
它已经存在很久了。
It's been around long enough.
人们已经习惯了它的味道。
People have grown used to the taste.
父母也会把它给自己的孩子喝。
Parents give it to their children.
所以你可以预期，它还会存在很长很长一段时间。
And you can expect that it'll be around a long period of time.
我觉得这是一个很好的例子。
I think that's one good example.
另一个很好的例子可能是 McDonald's。
Another good example might be McDonald's.
你未必喜欢 McDonald's 的汉堡，但这是一门已经存在了五十年的生意。
You may not love McDonald's hamburgers, but it's a business that's been around for 50 years.
你也明白他们是怎么赚钱的。
You understand how they make money.
他们开出这些小小的——建起这些小盒子一样的店面。
They open up these little— build these little boxes.
他们把这些店面租给加盟商。
They rent them to the franchisees.
他们收取特许权使用费，作为使用这个名字的交换。
They charge them royalties in exchange for the name.
然后他们卖汉堡和薯条。
And they sell hamburgers and French fries.
而且你知道吗？
And you know what?
人总得吃饭。
People have to eat.
这是相对便宜的食物。
It's relatively low-cost food.
质量也相当不错。
The quality is pretty good.
而且他们每一年都在继续增长。
And they continue to grow every year.
所以我觉得，这里一以贯之的信息就是，尽量去找那种你能看得懂的生意，它不要特别复杂，要有长期成功的业绩记录，能赚到很有吸引力的利润，而且还能随着时间不断成长。
So I think the consistent message here is try to find a business that you can understand, that's not particularly complicated, that has a successful long-term track record, that makes an attractive profit, and can grow over time.
所以，一家企业如果要像我说的那样能长长久久，关键要看哪些东西呢？
So what are the key things to look for in a business, as I say, that lasts forever?
我们想要的是这样一种企业：它卖的是人们需要的产品或服务，而且这个东西多少有点独特性，大家对这个特定的品牌或者产品是有忠诚度的。
We want a business that sells a product or a service that people need, and that is somewhat unique, and they have a loyalty to this particular brand or product.
而且人们愿意为它支付溢价。
And that people are willing to pay a premium for that.
另一个很好的例子，可能就是糖果生意。
Another good example might be a candy business.
很多食品，人们愿意买通用版、无品牌版，比如面粉、糖，这些不一定非得买有品牌的产品。
While people are willing to buy generic versions of many kinds of food products—flour, sugar—they don't need to have the branded product.
但一说到糖果，人们通常就不太喜欢 Walmart 版或者 Kmart 版。
When it comes to candy, people don't tend to like the Walmart version or the Kmart version.
他们想要的是 Hershey 的巧克力棒，或者 Cadbury 的巧克力棒，或者 See's Candies。
They want the Hershey chocolate bar or the Cadbury chocolate bar or the See's Candies.
他们要的是品牌，而且也愿意为这个品牌多付一点钱。
They want the brand, and they're willing to pay a premium for that.
我觉得，这一点非常关键。
And that's, I think, a key thing.
你希望这个产品是独特的。
You want the product to be unique.
你不希望它是一种谁都能卖的大宗商品，因为你一旦卖的是大宗商品，谁都能卖，而且别人还能用更低的价格卖，那样就很难赚到利润。
You don't want it to be a commodity that everyone else can sell, because when you sell a commodity, anyone can sell it, and they can sell it at a better price, and it's very hard to make a profit doing that.
如果你是做长期投资，你就想投那种负债非常少的企业。
If you're investing for the long term, you want to invest in businesses that have very little debt.
在我们前面那个小例子里，我们讲过我们的柠檬水摊。
In our little example before, we talked about our lemonade stand.
你看，那两百五十美元的债务，并没有给这家柠檬水摊公司带来太大压力。
You know, this $250 worth of debt, that didn't put too much pressure on the lemonade stand company.
但如果债务是一千美元，那一旦遇到一段困难时期，这个生意就可能因为还不上债而倒闭。
But if it had been $1,000, we hit a rough patch, the business could have gone out of business for failure to pay its debts.
股东的权益也可能会被彻底抹掉。
The shareholders could have been wiped out.
所以，如果你能找到一家能赚取很有吸引力利润、负债又不多，而且它赚的利润远远超过它需要支付的债务利息的公司，那把钱长期放在这种地方是很安全的。
So if you can find a company that can earn attractive profits, that doesn't have a lot of debt, where they generate vastly more profits than they need to pay the interest on their debt, that's a safe place to put your money over a long period of time.
你还想要那种具备人们所说的进入壁垒的企业。
You want businesses that have what people call barriers to entry.
你想要的是这样一种生意：别人明天很难马上开一家新公司来跟你竞争，然后把你挤垮。
You want a business where it's hard for someone tomorrow to set up a new company to compete with you and put you out of business.
我的意思是，还是回到 Coca-Cola 这个例子，Coca-Cola 的市场存在感非常强。
I mean, like going back to the Coca-Cola example, Coca-Cola has such a strong market presence.
你知道，人们现在已经形成预期了，去餐厅的时候，他们开口要一杯 Coke，就能拿到一杯 Coke。
You know, people have come to expect when they go to a restaurant they can ask for a Coke and get a Coke.
别人想打进去是非常难的。
It's very hard for someone else to break in.
当然，现在也有 Pepsi，还有其他汽水品牌，但 Pepsi 也已经存在很久了。
Now, of course, there's Pepsi and there are other soda brands, but Pepsi's been around a long time.
Coca-Cola 和 Pepsi 这么长时间以来一直是并存的。
Coca-Cola and Pepsi have continued to exist side by side over long periods of time.
所以，当你在考虑选择一家公司的时候，要确保它卖的产品或者服务，是那种别人很难做出一个更好的、让你明天就立刻转投过去的东西。
So when you're thinking about choosing a company, make sure that they sell a product or a service that's—it's hard for someone else to make a better one that you'll switch to tomorrow.
你还希望这些企业不要对外部因素特别敏感，也就是所谓那些你无法控制的外生因素。
You also want businesses that are not particularly sensitive to outside factors, so-called extrinsic factors that you can't control.
所以，如果一家企业会因为某种特定大宗商品价格上涨，或者利率上下波动，或者汇率变化，而受到巨大的影响，那你就应该找一家对世界上这些变化相对有免疫力的公司。
So if a business will be affected dramatically if the price of a particular commodity goes up, or if interest rates move up and down, or if currency prices change, you want a company that's fairly immune to what's going on in the world.
我还是用 Coca-Cola 这个例子。
And I'll use my Coca-Cola example.
你想想 Coca-Cola，这个产品大概已经存在一百二十年了。
I mean, if you think about Coca-Cola, it's a product that's been around probably 120 years.
在那段时间里，发生过好几次世界大战、核武器的发展，还有各种各样不幸的事件和悲剧，等等等等。
Over that period of time, there have been multiple world wars, development of nuclear weapons, all kinds of unfortunate events and tragedies, and so on and so forth.
但几乎每一年，这家公司赚的钱都会比之前多一点。
But each year, the company pretty much makes a little bit more money than they made before.
而且它会一直存在。
And they're going to be around.
而且根据历史，你可以很有信心地说，这是一门几乎不管利率是不是百分之十四、US dollar值不值钱、gold价格是涨是跌，都会一直存在的生意。
And you can be confident, based on the history, that this is a business that's going to be around almost regardless of whether interest rates are at 14%, whether the US dollar is not worth very much, or the price of gold is up or down.
这就是你长期投资时想找的那种公司——对世界上正在发生的各种事情有极强免疫力的企业。
Those are the kind of companies you want to invest in the long term—businesses that are extremely immune to the events that are going on in the world.
另一个标准——如果你回想一下我们那个lemonade stand公司的例子，随着我们增长，我们就得买越来越多的lemonade stand。
Another criteria—if you think back to our lemonade stand company, as we grew, we had to buy more and more lemonade stands.
当然，那些lemonade stand每个只要三百美元。
Now, those lemonade stands only cost $300 each.
但你想象一下，如果有一种生意，每次一增长，你都得新建一座工厂，才能生产越来越多的产品，而且那些工厂还特别贵。
But imagine a business where every time you grew, you had to build a new factory to produce more and more product, and those factories were really expensive.
那这种公司也许能从业务里产生很多现金，但为了增长，你就不得不把越来越多的现金重新投回这个生意里。
Well, that company might generate a lot of cash from the business, but in order to grow, you're going to have to just reinvest more and more cash into the business.
最好的企业，是那种不需要在公司里反复投入大量资本的企业。
The best businesses are the ones where they don't require a lot of capital to be reinvested in the company.
它们能产生很多现金，你可以拿这些钱给股东分红，或者投到新的、高回报、很有吸引力的项目里。
They generate lots of cash that you can use to pay dividends to your shareholders, or you can invest in new high-return attractive projects.
我想最后一点我要说的是，如果你要投资上市公司，投资那些没有被控制的企业，大概率会更安全。
I guess the last point I would make is that if you're going to invest in public companies, it's probably safest to invest in businesses that are not controlled.
所谓controlled company，有点像我们那个后来上市的lemonade stand生意。
A controlled company is kind of like our lemonade stand business that we took public.
controlled company的问题在于，除非控股股东是一个你完全信任的人，除非这个人在照顾所谓少数投资者、也就是非控股股东方面有非常好的记录，否则投这种企业可能风险很大，因为你其实是受控于控股股东的意志。
The problem with a controlled company, unless the controlling shareholder is someone you completely trust, unless there's someone that has a great track record for taking care of so-called minority investors, the non-controlling shareholders, it can be a risky proposition to invest in that business because you're at the whim of the controlling shareholder.
而且即便今天的控股股东是一个让你觉得放心的人，也没有任何保证说将来他不会把控制权卖给别人，而那个人可能就不会像现在这样支持公司的股东。
And even if the controlling shareholder today is someone that you feel comfortable with, there's no assurance that in the future they might sell control to someone else who's not going to be as supportive of the shareholders of the business.
所以，并不是说你只要有一家盈利的公司，或者一家过去表现不错的公司，就够了。
So it's not that you can simply have a profitable business and a business that has done well.
你还得确认，管理层和控制这家企业的人，会把你当成所有者来看待，并且会保护你的利益。
You have to make sure that the management and the people that control the business think about you as an owner and are going to protect your interests.
所以这些就是一些值得重点考虑的标准。
So these are some of the key criteria to think about.
那么，什么时候你才算准备好开始投资呢？
Now, when are you ready to start investing money?
我猜你是个学生，你可能有学生贷款，甚至也许还有一些信用卡债务。
My guess is you're a student, you probably have student loans, perhaps you even have some credit card debt.
你马上要毕业了，也会找到工作，所以你不应该一上来就在自己还有很多债没还的时候，就开始往股市里投钱。
You're going to graduate, you're going to get a job, so you don't want to jump right in and, while you have a lot of debt outstanding, start investing in the stock market.
股市适合在这样的时候投资：你手上有一笔可以放着，而且五年，甚至十年都用不着的钱。
The stock market is a place to invest when you've got money you can put away and you won't need for 5 years or maybe 10 years.
所以，如果你的信用卡利率比较高，那你肯定应该先把信用卡还清，再去考虑投资股市。
So, if you're paying relatively high interest rates on your credit cards, you definitely want to pay off your credit cards first before you think about investing in the stock market.
你的学生贷款成本大概率比信用卡低一些，但还是一样，我最好的建议是，如果你的学生贷款成本是百分之六或百分之七，那么你把它还掉，就等于你拿到了一个有保证的百分之六或百分之七的回报。
Your student loans are probably lower cost than your credit cards, but again, here, my best advice would be, you know, if your student loans are costing you 6% or 7%, well, if you pay them off, it's as if you earned a guaranteed 6% or 7% return.
所以在你往股市里投入一笔比较可观的钱之前，最好还是先把信用卡债务，甚至连学生贷款债务都处理掉。
And you're just better off getting rid of your credit card debt and even your student loan debt before you commit a material amount of money to the stock market.
即使你已经还清了信用卡，也许也还掉了一部分学生贷款，你还是得在银行里留够一笔钱，这样就算你明天丢了工作，你也有足够六个月、甚至十二个月的储备金。
Even once you've paid off your credit card debts, perhaps you've paid down your student loans, you want to have enough money in the bank so that even if you were to lose your job tomorrow, you've got a good 6 months, maybe even 12 months of money set aside.
我们再来稍微聊一聊投资心理。
Let's talk a little bit about the psychology of investing.
前面我们讲过一些技术层面的因素——怎么去判断一家企业值多少钱。
So we've talked about some of the technical factors—how to think about what a business is worth.
你想买的是价格合理的企业。
You want to buy a business at a reasonable price.
你想买的是那种会长期存在、拥有进入壁垒、别人很难跟你竞争的企业。
You want to buy a business that's going to exist forever, that has barriers to entry, where it's going to be difficult for people to compete with you.
这些都很重要，而且很多投资人也都遵循这些原则。
All of those things are important, and a lot of investors follow those principles.
问题在于，一旦真到实践的时候，如果全世界都在恐慌，股市天天往下跌，你眼看着自己的 IRA 或者投资账户不断缩水，人很自然就会去做一些和理性判断正好相反的事。
The problem is that when they put them into practice, and there's a panic in the world, and the stock market's heading down every day, and they're watching the value of their IRA or their investment account decline, the natural tendency is sort of to do the opposite of what makes sense.
想成为一个成功的投资人，你就得能够克服一些人类天生的倾向，比如盲目跟风。
To be a successful investor, you have to be able to avoid some natural human tendencies to follow the herd.
股市天天在跌，你的本能反应就是想卖掉。
The stock market's going down every day, your natural tendency is to want to sell.
而当股市天天在涨的时候，你的本能反应就是想买进。
When the stock market's actually going up every day, your natural tendency is to want to buy.
所以在泡沫阶段，你大概率应该当卖方。
So in bubbles, you probably should be a seller.
在崩盘的时候，你反而大概率应该当买方。
In busts, you should probably be a buyer.
而且你得有这种纪律性。
And you have to have that kind of a discipline.
你还得有足够强的心理承受力，去扛住股市的波动。
You have to have a stomach to withstand the volatility of the stock market.
要想有这种承受股市波动的心理底气，一个很关键的办法，就是先让你自己有安全感。
A key way to have a stomach to withstand the volatility of the stock market is to be secure yourself.
你得确信自己银行里有足够的钱。
You've got to feel comfortable that you've got enough money in the bank.
也就是说，在很多年之内，你都不需要动用你投进去的那笔钱。
That you don't need what you have invested unless—for many years.
这是一个关键因素。
That's a key factor.
第二，你要认识到，股市在短期内，我们把它叫做一台 voting machine。
Number two, you have to recognize that the stock market in the short term is what we call a voting machine.
短期来看，它其实反映的是人们情绪和一时好恶的变化。
It really represents the whims of people in the short term.
股价会受到很多因素影响，包括世界上正在发生的各种事件，而这些事情其实和你所投资的某些公司的真实价值并没有什么关系。
Stock prices are affected by many things, by events going on in the world that really have nothing to do with the value of certain companies that you're investing in.
所以你得接受这样一个事实：你买入之后，你持有的东西在价值上可能会明显下跌，但这并不一定意味着你投资犯错了。
So you've got to just accept the fact that what you own can go down meaningfully in value after you buy it, that doesn't necessarily mean you've made an investment mistake.
这只是股市波动的本质而已。
It's just the nature of the volatility of the stock market.
那怎么才能让自己更安心呢？
How do you get comfortable?
你不能只是因为喜欢一家公司的名字，就去买它的股票。
You don't just buy a stock because you like the name of the company.
你要自己做研究。
You do your own research.
你要对这个生意有充分的了解。
You get a good understanding of the business.
你要确认这是一门你看得懂的生意。
You make sure it's a business that you understand.
你要确认你付出的价格，相对于这家公司的盈利来说，是合理的。
You make sure the price you're paying is reasonable relative to the earnings of the company.
假设你觉得这套方法根本不适合你。
Let's say this is just not for you.
我不想投资个股。
I don't want to invest by individual stocks.
这看起来就是太冒险了。
It just seems too risky.
我也没有时间自己做研究。
I don't have the time to do my own research.
那你的替代方案是什么呢？
What are your alternatives?
那你的替代方案，就是把投资这件事外包给别人。
Well, your alternatives are to outsource your investing to others.
你可以雇一个 money manager，或者雇一组 money managers。
You can hire a money manager, or you can hire a group of money managers.
对于刚开始投资的人来说，有几种不同的选择。
And there are a couple of different alternatives for a startup investor.
最常见的一种选择是 mutual fund companies。
The most common alternative are mutual fund companies.
那什么是 mutual fund 呢？
So what's a mutual fund?
mutual fund 我想从技术上讲，它算是一家公司；但它的运作方式是，你买这家公司的股份，然后 manager 去挑选一个股票组合。
A mutual fund is a— I guess technically it's a corporation, but where you buy stock in this corporation, and the manager selects a portfolio of stocks.
也就是说，他们会把一大群投资人的资金，也就是钱，集中到一起。
So what they do is they pool together capital, money from a large group of investors.
比如说他们募到十亿美元，然后拿这笔钱去投资一个分散化的证券组合。
So let's say they raise $1 billion, and they take that money and they invest in a diversified collection of securities.
这种方式的好处是，就算你只有很少的钱，甚至不到一千美元，你也能买进一个由专业 manager 管理的分散化投资组合；而这个 manager 拿报酬，就是为了替你把市场投资这件事做好。
Now, the benefit of this approach is that with a tiny amount of money, even less than $1,000, you can buy into a diversified portfolio managed by a professional manager who's compensated to do a good job for you investing in the market.
所以 mutual funds 是一个很值得考虑的投资方向。
So mutual funds are a good potential area for investment.
问题在于，市场上大概有七千、八千，甚至可能一万个不同的 mutual funds，其中有些非常优秀，有些就没那么好。
The problem is there are probably 7,000, 8,000, maybe 10,000 different mutual funds, and some are fantastic and some are not particularly good.
你还是得做研究，去找到一个好的 mutual fund manager，这跟你挑个股其实是一样的。
You need to do research to find a good mutual fund manager in the same way that you need to find individual stocks.
所以事情并不是说，随便投 mutual funds 就很轻松了。
So it's not just the easy thing of just investing in mutual funds.
下面是几个关键的成功因素，帮你判断该选哪一种 mutual fund，或者任何类型的 money manager。
So here are a few key success factors in identifying a mutual fund or a money manager of any kind to select.
第一，你要找一个投资策略你自己听得懂、也觉得说得通的人。
Number one, you want someone who has an investment strategy that makes sense to you.
你要明白他们在做什么，以及他们是怎么做的。
You understand what they do and how they do it.
他们不是靠一堆你听不懂的复杂词汇和说法，来利用你的不安全感。
They're not appealing to your insecurity by using complicated words and expressions that you don't understand.
如果他们不能在两分钟内跟你讲清楚：他们做什么、怎么做、以及为什么这样有道理，那这种策略你就不该投。
If they can't explain to you in 2 minutes what they do and how they do it and why it makes sense, then it's a strategy you shouldn't invest in.
第二——这个不一定要按这个顺序来，说不定它其实应该排第一——就是你要找一个以诚信著称的人。
Number 2— this is not necessarily in this order, this probably should be number 1— is you want someone with a reputation for integrity.
还是那句话，如果你刚开始投资，你大概率应该投一些由比较大的 mutual fund complexes 发起的 mutual fund，而不是那种很小、私人的、背后是你从来没听过的 mutual fund company 的 fund。
Again, if you're starting out, you probably want to invest in some of a mutual fund that's sponsored by some of the larger mutual fund complexes, as opposed to a tiny little mutual fund that's privately, uh, by a mutual fund company that you've never heard of.
大机构是有一些好处的。
There's some benefit in the larger institutions.
你可以更有把握，他们不会把你的钱偷走。
You can be more confident that they're not going to steal your money.
你要找的是那种以 value 为基础来做投资的人，或者那样的方法。
You want someone— an approach where the investor invests money on the basis of value.
这听起来可能有点显而易见，但 value investing 有非常长期的历史业绩记录。
Now, this sounds kind of obvious, but value investing has a very long-term track record.
当然，市场上还有别的投资方法，包括 technical investing，也就是根据价格波动去押注股票；但我非常不建议那种做法。
And now there are other kinds of investing, including technical investing, where people are betting on stocks based on price movements, but I highly recommend against those kind of approaches.
所以你要找的是这样的人：他们投资一家公司的原因，是他们相信这门生意的前景会很好，而且他们付出的价格，相对于这家公司本身的价值，有明显折价。
So you want someone who's making investments where they're buying companies based on their belief that the prospects of the business will be good and that the price paid relative to what the business is worth represents a significant discount.
你要跟一个有长期业绩记录的人一起投资。
You want to invest with someone that has a long-term track record.
所谓长期业绩记录，我会说五年是最低最低的门槛；理想情况下，你最好找那种有十年、十五年、二十年市场投资经验的人，因为做长期市场投资者，有很多东西是只有经历久了才能学到的。
A long-term track record, and I would say 5 years is the absolute minimum, and ideally you want someone who's got 10, 15, 20 years of experience investing in the markets because there's a lot that you can learn being a long-term investor in the market.
你还要找那种方法始终如一的人，不会一年一年地大幅改变自己在做的事情。
You want someone who has a consistent approach where they haven't changed what they do materially year by year.
也就是说，他们有一套公开说明过的策略，而且无论顺境逆境都一直坚持，最终让他们在整个投资生涯里取得了有吸引力的回报。
That they have a stated strategy that they've kept to through thick and thin that's enabled them to earn an attractive return over their lifetime as an investor.
而且我一直都说，从某种意义上讲最重要的是，你要找那种把自己绝大部分的钱也跟你一起投进去的人。
And I always say, in some ways most importantly, you want someone who's investing the substantial majority of their own money alongside yours.
你要找的是那种利益跟你一致的人。
You want someone whose interests are aligned with yours.
如果是 mutual fund，你会希望他们自己也在自己的 mutual fund 里投了很多钱。
If it's a mutual fund, you want them to have a lot of money in their own mutual fund.
如果是 hedge fund，也就是卖给净资产更高的投资者的私募基金，你会希望这个管理人也跟你一起投。
If it's a hedge fund, which is a privately sold fund for investors who have higher net worths, you want a manager who's investing alongside you as well.
我们一开始是从一个小小的柠檬水摊公司讲起，目的就是让你掌握一些最基础的东西，知道该怎么理解一门生意。比如，利润是从哪儿来的，什么叫收入，什么叫支出，什么是 balance sheet，什么是 income statement，怎么判断一家企业值多少钱，怎么分辨什么是好生意、什么是坏生意。
We started with a little lemonade stand company, and the purpose of that was to give you some of the basics in how to think about a business, you know, where the profits come from, what revenues are, what expenses are, what a balance sheet is, what an income statement is, how to think about what a business is worth, how to think about what the difference between a good business is versus a bad business.
我们还讲了，为什么 debt 一般风险更低，但回报也更低；以及 equity 投资人，也就是买股票、买下企业所有权的人，为什么有可能赚得更多，但也可能亏得更多。
How debt is generally lower risk but lower return, how equity investors, or investors who buy the stock or the ownership of a business, have the potential to earn more or lose more.
我们把这些当作一个背景，作为入门基础，先建立一些思考投资时会用到的词汇。
We used that as a backdrop, just as the basics to get some of the vocabulary to think about investing.
我们还聊了怎么投资 stock market。
We talked about investing in the stock market.
我们讲了该怎么思考选择投资标的，也讲了投资时怎么应对一些心理层面的问题。
We talked about ways to think about how to select investments, how to deal with some of the psychological issues of investing.
我们在相对很短的时间里，已经覆盖了不少内容。
We covered a fair amount of ground in a relatively short period of time.
我给这个讲座起的标题是：Everything You Need to Know About Finance and Investing in Less Than an Hour。
Now, I entitled the lecture Everything You Need to Know About Finance and Investing in Less Than an Hour.
不过，说实话，这当然不是真的把你需要知道的一切都讲完了。
Well, it really isn't everything you need to know.
它其实只是一个入门介绍。
It's really just an introduction.
也希望我没有因为让你看了这一小时，而误导了你。
And hopefully I didn't mislead you by inducing you to watch this for an hour.
因为这里面还有很多很多东西可以继续学。
But there's a lot more that can be learned.
而且这个主题上也有一些非常棒的书，可以教你很多。
And there's some wonderful books that can teach you on the topic.
所以我觉得，投资有意思的地方在于，不管你最后会不会把它当成全职职业，如果你想在自己的职业生涯里取得成功，你就会赚到一些钱。
So I think what's interesting about investing, whether you choose this as a full-time career or not, if you're going to be successful in your career, you're going to make some money.
而你怎么去投资这些钱，会很大程度影响你的生活质量，也可能影响你孩子的生活，影响你能买什么样的房子，或者你将来能享受什么样的退休生活。
And how you invest that money is going to make a big difference in the quality of life that you have, and perhaps that your children have, or the kind of house you're able to buy, or the retirement that you're going to be able to enjoy.
我们刚才也讲过，百分之十、百分之十五和百分之二十的回报率，在非常长的人生周期里会带来多大的差别，会对你最终积累出多少财富产生什么影响。
We talked about the difference between a 10% return and a 15% and a 20% return over a very long lifetime, what impact that has in terms of how much wealth you create over the period.
所以不管你喜不喜欢，投资都会对你很重要。
So investing is going to be important to you whether you like it or not.
如果金钱是你实现某些人生目标所需要的东西，那多学一点投资，就会对你的生活质量产生很大的影响。
And learning more about investing is going to have a big impact on your quality of life, if money is something that you need in order to meet some of your goals.
我大概是在二十二岁或者二十三岁的时候开始感兴趣的。
I got interested when I was probably 22 or 23.
我开始对成为一名投资人产生兴趣，然后我读了一本书。
I started getting interested in being an investor, and I read a book.
我读的是一本叫 The Intelligent Investor 的书。
I read a book called The Intelligent Investor.
这本书是 Ben Graham 写的。
It was written by Ben Graham.
Ben Graham 是一位很有名的 value investor。
And Ben Graham is a famous value investor.
读这本书有点像读 Jean-Paul Sartre 的 Essays on Existentialism。
And it's kind of like reading Jean-Paul Sartre's Essays on Existentialism.
你读了之后，要么会有一种顿悟，甚至改变你看待人生、过日子的方式；要么你就完全不感兴趣。
You read it, and it either is an epiphany and affects the way you live your life, or it's of no interest to you.
而这本书在投资领域里，差不多就是那样的存在。
And this was the equivalent, but in investing.
我当时觉得它特别有意思。
I found it fascinating.
我喜欢投资的一点在于，它是个很容易接触、很容易进入的东西，哪怕对一个二十二岁或二十三岁的人来说也是这样。
And what I liked about investing is it was something very accessible, even to someone who's 22 or 23.
一直让我特别着迷的是，这是少数几种工作之一，你每天都能研究点新的东西。
What's kept me intrigued is that it's one of the few jobs where every day you can study something new.
你会不停地学习新的 business、新的情况、新的管理团队，还有新的问题。
You're constantly learning about new businesses, new situations, new management teams, new issues.
所以这份工作有着无穷无尽的挑战，而这个世界和股票市场显然又都在不断变化，所以挑战也会一直持续下去。
So it's infinitely challenging, and the world and the stock market are obviously very dynamic places, so the challenges continue.
这些同样的概念，除了能帮你决定怎么投资你的 portfolio 之外，在你思考其他决定的时候也非常有用，比如买房、在你的工作领域里做决策，或者要不要多雇一些人。
These same concepts, while they're useful in deciding how to invest your portfolio, they're also very useful to you in thinking about decisions like buying a home, making decisions in your line of work, whether to hire additional people.
你知道，这类计算和思考过程都很有帮助，不光在投资上有帮助，在生活里也一样，我建议你多学一点。
You know, these kinds of calculations and thought processes are helpful, and they're helpful in life, and I recommend that you learn more.
感谢你的专注收听，也祝你一切顺利。
Thank you for paying attention, and I wish you well.