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1995年股东大会 · 巴菲特:想做好投资,你不需要太多数学知识

43 段 · 3 位说话人 · 原片 5:40
M1
M10:00

你们过去一直能按那样的速度增长,但公司现在已经变得这么大了,要继续保持那种增长就很难了。我想请你稍微展开讲讲这一点。

It's hard to continue to grow at the rate you've grown in the past because the company has gotten so big, and I'm wondering if you could elaborate a little bit on that.

我的第二个问题跟这个完全没关系。不过我也看到过一些说法,说你特别擅长数字,心算也很厉害。可我在经济学、会计这些方面完全是个新手,但我对数字很在行,也很擅长把东西记在脑子里。所以我想问,有没有什么办法,像我这样一个对商业世界了解很少、但有数学背景的人,应该读些什么,或者做些什么,才能更好地学会投资?你自己当年又是怎么做到的?

My second question, which is totally unrelated, but I've also read where you're very good with numbers, with working things in your head, and I'm totally a rookie when it comes to economics and accounting and things like that, but I'm very good with numbers and keeping things in my head, and I'm wondering if there's some way a mathematician who knows very little about the business world, what I could read or what I could do to learn how better to invest and how you did that.
M2
M20:47

嗯,先说第一个问题吧。你说这会很难,其实不是很难,是根本不可能。

Well, going to the first question, when you say it's going to be hard, it's going to be impossible.

我的意思是,这就是答案。

I mean, that's the answer.

我们不可能在一百二十亿美元的本金基础上,还能按百分之二十三的速度去复利增长。

We cannot compound money at 23% from a $12 billion base.

我们不知道怎么做到这一点,而且如果有人觉得我们还能接近这个水平,那就是个错误。

We don't know how to do that, and it would be a mistake for anybody to think that we could come close to that.

我们觉得自己在资金运用上还能做得不错,但我们起步的时候可不是一百二十亿美元的规模,而且我们也从来没见过世界上有谁能在这么大的基数上,以那样的速度去复利增长。

We think we can do okay with money, but we did not start with a $12 billion base, and we've never seen anybody in the world compound numbers like that at that rate.

所以这部分就别想了,放下吧。

So we'll forget it, that part of it.

不过,还是有一些聪明的事情是我们可以去做的。

But there are intelligent things we can be doing.

问题的第二部分是什么来着?

The second part of the question?

我不认为投资过程中需要多强的数学天赋——也不是天赋,我是说数学知识——高等数学在投资过程中是没有用的。

I don't think any great amount of mathematical aptitude is— not aptitude, but mathematical knowledge is— advanced math is of no use in the investment process.

对数学关系有一种理解,或者说有一种把事情量化的能力,也就是他们说的那种 numeracy,我觉得这对投资总体上是有帮助的,因为它能让你判断一件事在逻辑上说不说得通,合不合理,或者说一个领域里的某个指标,跟别的地方的某样东西到底是什么关系。

An understanding of mathematical relationships, sort of an ability to quantify, a numeracy as they call it, I think that's generally helpful in investments because it's something that tells you when things make sense or don't make sense, or sort of how one item in one area relates to something someplace else.

但这其实并不需要多么高深的数学能力。

But that doesn't really require any great mathematical ability.

它真正需要的是一种数学上的敏感度,和一种 numeracy,我觉得这确实有帮助。

It really requires sort of a mathematical awareness and a numeracy, and I think it is a help.

能看出这些东西来。

To be able to see that.

我的意思是,我觉得 Charlie 和我大概都是这样:当我们读到一家企业的时候,脑子里总会把它放在几十家企业组成的背景板上去比较。

I mean, I think Charlie and I probably, when we read about one business, we're always thinking of it against the screen of dozens of businesses.

这几乎就是一种自动反应。

It's just sort of automatic.

不过这就有点像,你知道,棒球里的球探会把一个球员放到各种备选球员中去比较。

And, but that's just like a ball, you know, a scout in baseball thinking about one baseball player against an alternative.

我的意思是,一个队里名额是有限的,所以他们会想,这个人可能跑得快一点,那个人可能打击更好一点,诸如此类。

I mean, you only have a given number on the squad, and they're thinking, you know, one guy may be a little faster, one guy can hit a little bit better, all of that sort of thing.

而且你脑子里始终都在做某种排序和筛选。

And it's always in your mind, you are prioritizing and selecting in some manner.

我个人觉得,最好的训练方式就是把你眼前能读到的东西全都读了。

My own feeling about the best way to apply that is just to read everything in sight.

你知道,我是说,如果你一年读几百份年报,再读读 Graham、Fisher 还有其他几本相关的东西,你很快就会知道这些东西在你脑子里到底能不能慢慢拼起来。

You know, I mean, if you're reading a few hundred annual reports a year and you've read Graham and Fisher and a few things, you'll soon see whether it kind of falls into place or not.
M3
M33:12

Charlie?

Charlie?

对,我觉得在美国,有一套数字资料,如果你想快速拿一家企业和另一家企业做比较,那套最好用的就是 Value Line 的数据。

Yeah, I think the set of numbers, the one set of numbers in America that are the best quick guide to measuring one business against another are the Value Line numbers.
M2
M23:29

这点我同意。

I'd agree with that.
M3
M33:30

那种画在对数坐标纸上的、往前追溯十五年的资料,是对美国很多大型企业最好的那种一眼就能看明白的概括。

That stuff on the log scale paper going back 15 years, that is the best one-shot description of a lot of big businesses that exist in America.

我很难想象,一个做普通股投资的人,书架上会没有那套东西。

I can't imagine anybody being in the investment business involving common stocks without that thing on the shelf.
M2
M23:50

如果你脑子里对这些东西在不同行业、不同企业里大概都是什么样子有个印象,那你就有了一个可以拿来衡量的背景。

And if you sort of have in your head how all of that looks in different industries and different businesses, then you've got a backdrop against which to measure.

我的意思是,你想啊,如果你从来没看过棒球比赛,也从来没见过相关统计数据,那你就不会知道一个打击率三成的打者到底算不算好。

I mean, you know, if you'd never watched a baseball game and never seen a statistic on it, you wouldn't know whether a .300 hitter was a good hitter or not.

你脑子里得先有某种拼图式的整体图景,这样你的思考才算是有了依托。

You have to have some kind of a mosaic there that your thinking is implanted against, in effect.

那个 Value Line 的数据,你知道,他们每十三周会轮换一次,你把那些资料翻一翻,基本上就能对长期以来发生了什么有个相当不错的概念。

And the Value Line figures, you know, they cycle it every 13 weeks, and if you rifle through that, you'll have a pretty good idea of what's happened over time.
M3
M34:28

顺便说一句,我完全不看他们那个 timeliness ratings,或者 stock ratings,或者——

And by the way, I pay no attention to their timeliness ratings or stock ratings or—.
M2
M24:36

对,那些东西都没什么意义。

No, none of that means anything.

他们非得把那些放在上面,挺可惜的,不过——真正有价值的是那些统计资料,不是那个——

It's too bad they have to put that there, but that— it's the statistical material, not the—.
M3
M34:46

我倒是希望那套资料能一直往更早以前追溯。

I would like to have that material going all the way back.

他们大概截在了多久以前来着,十五年前左右?

They cut it off about, what, 15 years back?
M2
M24:51

对,不过我把以前那些老的都留着了。

Yeah, but I saved the old ones.
M3
M34:52

对,不过你知道,我我我——我真希望办公室里有那些资料,但我没有。

Yeah, well, you know, I, I—I wish I had that in the office, but I don't.
M2
M25:00

对,对,我们——Charlie 和我,我我我可能,呃,甚至我做得更多一点。

Yeah, yeah, we— Charlie and I, I, I maybe, uh, even I do it more.

我们常常会回头去看,我是说,如果我要买 Coca-Cola,我可能会回去把三十年代 Fortune 上写它的文章都翻出来读一读之类的。

We tend to go back and, I mean, if I'm buying Coca-Cola, I'll probably go back and read the Fortune articles from the 1930s on it or something.

我很喜欢了解很多事情的历史背景,这样大概能让我在脑子里弄清楚,这门生意一路是怎么演变过来的,哪些东西是一直不变的,哪些东西不是一直不变的,诸如此类。

I like a lot of historical background on things just to sort of get it in my head as to how the business has evolved over time and what's been permanent and what hasn't been permanent and all of that.

我这么做,可能更多是出于兴趣,不完全是为了真正做决策,不过——我觉得这——我觉得如果你这么想的话——我们是在努力买入那些我们想永远持有的企业,你知道,既然你是这么想的,那你不妨看看,如果一直持有它们会是什么样子,往回多看一看。

I probably do that more for fun than for actually decision-making, but it— I think it is— I think if you think about— we're trying to buy businesses we want to own forever, you know, and if you're thinking that way, you might as well see what it's been like to own them forever and look back a ways.

Zone 6?

Zone 6?