M10:00
这是个好问题。
It's a good question.
现场有些人显然特别有共鸣。
Some of the people in the audience are identifying with it.
我都能听出来。
I can hear them.
这其实是一个要对自己有现实认知的问题，而且这不光适用于做生意，在别的领域也一样。
It is a question of being self-realistic, and that applies outside of business as well.
我觉得 Charlie 和我，在识别我所说的那个能力圈边界这件事上，做得还算不错。但很显然，我们也确实有越界的时候。
And I think Charlie and I have been reasonably good at identifying what I would call the perimeter of that circle of competence. But obviously, we've gone out of it.
就我自己来说，我会说我在零售业这件事上，跑出能力圈的次数比任何别的领域都多。
I would say that in my own case, I've gone out of it more often in retail than in any other arena.
我觉得，人很容易以为自己懂零售，结果后来才发现其实并不懂，就像我们当年在 Baltimore 那家百货商店上的经历一样。
I think it's easy to sort of think you understand retail and then subsequently find out you don't, as we did with the department store in Baltimore.
你也可以说，我买 Berkshire Hathaway 的时候，其实就已经超出了我的能力圈。
You can say I was outside of my circle of competence when I bought Berkshire Hathaway.
虽然我一开始买它，真的是想把它当股票转手卖掉，但后来我决定亲自进去、买下这家公司的控制权时，我很可能已经超出自己的能力圈了。
I, although I bought it really to resell as a stock originally, I probably was out of my circle of competence when I decided that I should go in and buy control of the company.
那是个很蠢的决定，嗯，不过最后结果还不错。
That was, that was a dumb decision, um, which worked out.
我觉得，这归根结底是要评估你自己的才能和短板。
Uh, appraising your own talents and shortcomings, I think.
我也不知道这是不是天生的，但有些人在这方面显然就是比别人强得多。
I don't know whether that's innate, but some people seem a whole lot better at that than others.
而且我确实知道不少 CEO，我觉得他们根本不知道自己的能力圈到底从哪开始、到哪结束。
And I certainly know of a number of CEOs that I feel have no idea of where their circle of competence begins and ends.
不过我们也有不少经理人，我觉得他们在这方面做得非常出色。
But we've got a number of managers who I think are just terrific at it.
我的意思是，他们真的很清楚，什么时候自己是在一个自己会赢的游戏里玩，他们不会跑到那个游戏之外去。
I mean, they really know when they're playing in the game they're going to win in, and they don't go outside of that game.
这方面最极致的例子，就是 Furniture Mart 的 Mrs. B。
The ultimate was Mrs. B at the Furniture Mart.
她当时跟我说，在 Berkshire Hathaway 那笔交易里，她不要股票。
She told me that she did not want stock in terms of the Berkshire Hathaway deal.
现在听起来，这好像是个错误决定。
Now, now that may sound like it was a bad decision.
其实那是个非常精彩的决定。
It was a splendid decision.
她对股票一无所知，但她非常清楚现金该怎么运用。
She did not know anything about stock, but she knew a lot about what to do with cash.
她懂房地产，懂零售，而且她非常清楚自己懂什么、不懂什么。
She knew real estate, she knew retailing, and she knew exactly what she knew and what she didn't know.
而这一点，在她的商业人生里，带着她走了非常非常非常非常远。
And that took her a long, long, long, long way in business life.
而这种能力——知道自己什么时候是在玩一个自己能赢的游戏，什么时候是在那个游戏之外——是非常巨大的资产。
And that ability to know when you're playing the game in which you're going to win and playing outside of that game is a huge asset.
至于怎么才能最好地培养出这种对自己的清醒判断，我没法告诉你一个最佳办法。
I can't tell you the best way to develop a great sense of that about yourself.
也许你可以找一些很了解你的朋友，听听他们的意见。
You might get some of your friends that know you well to offer contributions.
Charlie 就偶尔给过我一些这种意见，他会说，你他妈的懂那个什么？
Charlie's given me a few contributions occasionally saying, what the hell do you know about that?
当然，这也算是一种表达方式。
And that's one way of putting it, of course.
不过 Charlie，你能帮他回答一下吗？
But Charlie, can you help him out?