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2007年股东大会 · 巴菲特:买股票时,想象自己买下的是整个公司

36 段 · 3 位说话人 · 原片 4:36
M1
M10:00

大家早上好。

Good morning.

我是来自 San Francisco 的 Thomas Kimay。

I'm Thomas Kimay from San Francisco.

我十七岁,这是我连续第十年参加年度股东大会。

I'm 17 years old, and this is my 10th consecutive annual meeting.
M2
M20:12

你现在至少该拿到 PhD 了吧。

You must be a PhD by now, at least.
M1
M10:16

Buffett 先生,Munger 先生,我很好奇,你们觉得要怎样才能成为一个更好的投资者。

Mr. Buffett, Mr. Munger, I'm curious about what you think is the best way to become a better investor.

我应该去读 MBA,多积累一些工作经验,多读一些 Charlie Munger Almanack,还是说这纯粹是天生的,不是我自己能决定的?

Should I get an MBA, get more work experience, read more Charlie Munger Almanacks, or merely is it genetic and out of my hands?
M2
M20:36

嗯,我觉得你应该尽你所能去读一切能读的东西。

Well, I think you should read everything you can.

我可以拿我自己举例,我想在我——嗯,我知道在我十岁的时候,我已经把 Omaha Public Library 里所有跟投资有关的书都读过了,而且很多还读了两遍。

I can tell you in my own case, I think by the time I was— well, I know by the time I was 10, I'd read every book in the Omaha Public Library that had anything to do with investing, and many of them I'd read twice.

所以我觉得,没有什么比阅读更重要。

So I don't think there's anything like reading.

而且不只是局限在投资上,你得把各种彼此竞争的想法都装进脑子里,然后随着时间去梳理,看看哪些东西真正说得通。

And not just as limited to investing at all, but you just got to fill up your mind with various competing thoughts and sort them out as to what really makes sense over time.

然后等你做了很多这方面的功课之后,我觉得你得真的下水,因为纸上投资和,你知道,拿真金白银去投资,这两者的差别,就像读爱情小说和亲自做别的事之间的差别一样。

And then once you've done a lot of that, I think you have to jump in the water because investing on paper and, you know, investing with real money, you know, is like the difference between reading a romance novel and doing something else.

所以我,我会——

So I, I would—.
M3
M31:25

我,我——

I, I—.
M2
M21:29

真的没有什么比亲自去做一点投资、积累一点经验更管用了,而且你很快就会发现自己到底喜不喜欢这个。

There is nothing like actually, uh, having a little experience in investing, uh, and, and you soon find out whether you like it.

如果你喜欢,如果这件事真的让你兴奋,那你大概率会做得不错。

If you like it, if it turns you on, you know, you're probably going to do well at it.

不过,就阅读来说,当然是越早开始越好。

But, and the earlier you start, the better in terms of reading.

不过你知道,我十九岁时读过一本书,那本书从那以后就奠定了我思考投资的框架。

But, you know, I read a book at age 19 that formed my framework for thinking about investments ever since.

我是说,我现在七十六岁,今天做的事情,依然是在用我十九岁读那本书时形成的同一套思维模式来分析。

I mean, what I am doing today at 76 is running things through the same thought pattern that I got from a book I read when I was 19.

当然,其他书我也都读了,但如果你——而且你必须读很多很多书,才会知道哪些书真的会一下子打动你,哪些想法会随着时间越来越凸显出来。

And I've read all the other books too, but if you— And you have to read a lot of them to know which ones really do jump out at you and which ideas jump out at you over time.

所以我要说的是,多读,然后用一个小规模、不会在财务上伤到你的方式,自己亲手做一点。

So I would say that read, and, and then on a small scale, in a way that can't hurt you financially, do some of it yourself.

Charlie?

Charlie?
M3
M32:28

嗯,Sandy Gottesman 是 Berkshire 的董事,他管理着一家规模很大而且很成功的投资业务。你看看他的用人方式,就能知道他认为什么能让人学会成为优秀的投资者。

Well, Sandy Gottesman, who is a Berkshire director, runs a large and successful investment operation, and you can tell what he thinks causes people to learn to be good investors by noticing his employment practices.

当一个年轻人来找 Sandy 的时候,不管这个人有多年轻,他都会问一个非常简单的问题。

When a young man comes to Sandy, he asks a very simple question, no matter how young the man is.

他会说,你持有什么,为什么持有它?

He says, what do you own and why do you own it?

如果你对这个主题还没有足够的兴趣,连这种参与程度都没有,那他宁可你去别的地方。

And if you haven't been interested enough in the subject to have that involvement already, why, he'd rather you go somewhere else.
M2
M23:09

对,这种“你拥有的是一家企业”这个观念,你知道,对投资过程至关重要。

Yeah, it's very— that whole idea that you own a business, you know, is vital to the investment process.

如果你要买一个农场,你会说,我买这块一百六十英亩的农场,是因为我预计它每英亩能产一百二十蒲式耳玉米,或者每英亩四十五蒲式耳大豆,而且我也能买到化肥。

And if you were going to buy a farm, you'd say, I'm buying this 160-acre farm because I expect that the farm will produce 120 bushels an acre of corn or 45 bushels an acre of soybeans, and I can buy the fertilizer.

你知道,你会把整个过程都过一遍。

You know, you go through the whole process.

那会是一个定量的决策,而且会建立在相当扎实的基础之上。

It'd be a quantitative decision, and it would be based on pretty solid stuff.

而不会建立在你那天在电视上看到了什么之上。

Would not be based on, you know, what you saw on television that day.

它不应该是基于,怎么说呢,你邻居跟你说了什么,或者诸如此类的东西。

It would not be based on, you know, what your neighbor said to you or anything of the sort.

股票也是一样。

It's the same thing with stocks.

我以前总是建议我的学生,拿一张像这样的黄色便签纸,如果他们要以每股三十美元买一百股 General Motors,而 General Motors 当时总股本不管是多少,六亿股左右,或者稍微少一点,那他们就应该这么说:我要花一百八十亿美元把整个 General Motors 公司买下来,原因是这些。

I used to always recommend to my students that they take a yellow pad like this, and if they're buying 100 shares of General Motors at $30, and General Motors has whatever it has out, 600 million shares or a little less, that they say, I'm going to buy the General Motors Company for $18 billion, and here's why.

如果他们没法就这个题目写出一篇像样的文章,那他们就根本不该去买这一百股、十股,哪怕是一股、每股三十美元的股票,因为他们并没有用企业经营的标准去检验这件事。

And if they can't write a good essay on that subject, they've got no business buying 100 shares or 10 shares or 1 share at $30 per share, because they, they are not subjecting it to business tests.

而且要养成这样思考的习惯,你知道,Sandy 还会根据你前两个问题的回答继续追问,逼着你准确地说明,为什么你觉得这家企业在你买入的那个价格上是便宜的;如果你给不出别的像样答案,你就不及格。

And to get in the habit of thinking that way, you know, Sandy would have followed it up with the questions based on how you answered the first two questions that made you defend exactly why you thought that business was cheap at the price at which you were buying it, and any other answer, you'd flunk.

第十一题。

Number 11.