← 返回任务列表

1999年股东大会 · 整体收购与股票投资,巴菲特更喜欢哪一种?

26 段 · 3 位说话人 · 原片 2:41
M1
M10:00

早上好。

Good morning.

我叫 Fred Costano,来自密歇根州的 Eastpointe。

My name is Fred Costano from Eastpointe, Michigan.

Berkshire 未来的投资,会采取收购 General Re 这种形式,还是你们仍然会考虑在股市里一点一点地买入?

Would Berkshire's future investments be in the form of the General Re acquisition, or would you still consider nibbling in the stock market?
M2
M20:13

嗯,我们,我们,我们不想一点一点地买,但我们愿意时不时地在股市里大口买入。

Well, we, we, we don't want to nibble, but we would like to take big gulps in the stock market from time to time.

不过,我们一直都想收购整个企业。

But we, we've always wanted to acquire entire businesses.

当年我们买 See's Candy、Buffalo News 或 National Indemnity 的时候,人们似乎从来不太相信这一点,但这一直都是我们的第一选择。

People never seemed to really believe that back when we were buying See's Candy or the Buffalo News or National Indemnity, but that's been our number one preference right along.

只不过,我们发现,很多时候,如果通过股市买入优秀企业的一部分,我们的钱能发挥出更大的价值,比通过谈判直接收购能得到的价值高得多。

It's just that we found that much of the time we could get far more for our money in terms of wonderful businesses by buying pieces in the stock market than we could by negotiated purchase.

这些企业的可获得性,可能曾经,也可能现在,出现了一些变化。

There may have been—there may be some movement in terms of the availability of them.

我的意思是,在股市低迷的时候,你通过股票能买到的价格,在谈判收购中永远不可能做到那么低。

I mean, you will never make the kind of buy in a negotiated purchase that you can make via stocks in a bad stock market.

这种事就是不会发生。

It just isn't going to happen.

因为交易对手太在意这件事了;而在一九七三年或一九七四年的股市里,你面对的是边际卖家。不管他们给这家企业定出什么价格,你都可以买下来。

The person on the other side cares too much, whereas in the stock market in 1973 or '74, you were dealing with the marginal seller, and whatever price they established for the business, you could buy it.

一九七四年,我不可能花八千万美元把整个 Washington Post Company 买下来,但我可以买下它百分之十的股份,卖方是一群只是在按照 beta 计算,或者做类似事情的人。那时市场非常糟糕,所以你有可能按照那种估值买下它的一部分。

I couldn't have bought the entire Washington Post Company for $80 million in 1974, but I could buy 10% of it from a bunch of people who were just operating, you know, based on calculating betas or doing something of the sort, and they were in a terrible market, and it was possible to buy a piece of it on that valuation.

通过谈判收购,你永远得不到这样的买入机会。

You never get that kind of buy-in in a negotiated purchase.

我们一直更关注大型的谈判收购,而不是买股票,但我们可能没办法全部用这种方式把资金投出去。

We always are more interested in large negotiated deals than we are in stock purchases, but we, we are not going to find a way probably to use all the money that way.

而且,我们偶尔可能会有机会,把大笔资金投进一些有吸引力的企业里,也就是通过股市买入它们百分之五、百分之十的股份,或者类似规模的持股。

And, and we occasionally may get chances to put big chunks of money into attractive businesses that are—which we buy through the stock market, 5%, 10% of the company or something of that sort.

Charlie?

Charlie?
M3
M32:00

我猜,未来五年里,这两种方式我们都会做一些:既收购整个企业,也会在股市里大口买入。

My guess is over the next 5 years we'll do some of both, both the full—the entire business and the big gulps in the stock market.
M2
M22:10

对,我同意。

Yeah, I agree with that.

两边我们都会继续做。

We'll keep working at both.

不管哪个领域,我们现在都没找到太多机会。

We're not finding a lot in either arena.

相比之下,我们在谈判收购的企业里,找到机会的可能性也许会更大一点。

We might be a little more likely to find it in the negotiated business.

但不会是什么特别便宜的买卖。

It won't be any huge bargain.

通过谈判收购,我们不会得到什么特别便宜的买卖。

We're not going to get any huge bargain in a negotiated purchase.

按照现在的情况,我觉得,我们更有可能在那里找到我所谓的公平交易,而不是在股市里找到这样的机会。

We are more likely to find what I would call a fair deal there under today's circumstances than we will in the market.

但我同意 Charlie 的看法。未来五年里,我想你们会看到我们两种方式都会采用。

But I agree with Charlie, over the next 5 years, I think you'll see us do both.

六号区域?

Zone 6?