M20:18
对，大概一个星期前，Barron's 上确实有一篇这样的文章。
Yeah, there was an article about a week or so ago in Barron's.
写那篇文章的是同一个人，大概四年前他也写过一篇，得出的结论基本差不多。我希望他这中间没有去做空。不过，这么说吧，那不是——那不是我会用来计算 Berkshire 内在价值的方法。但是，证券市场里的每个人都会自己做选择。
The same fellow wrote an article about 4 years ago reaching pretty much the same conclusion, and I hope he hasn't been short in between, but the, uh, I would say this, it's not— it is not the way I would calculate the intrinsic value of Berkshire, but, but everyone in securities markets makes choices on that.
每天都有人卖出几股 Berkshire，也有人买进。你知道，他们对估值很可能本来就有不同的看法。
Every day somebody sells a few shares of Berkshire and someone buys, and, you know, they are probably coming to differing opinions about, about valuation.
我会说，我觉得挺奇怪的，就是——就是他显然好像忘了我们是做保险业务的，不过这个也不重要。
I, I would say that I found it strange that, that, that the— that, that apparently he forgot we were in the insurance business, but that that's not important.
这其实并没有什么影响。
It really doesn't make any difference.
我的意思是，我们不会去在意别人怎么说 Coca-Cola 的股票，或者 Gillette 的股票，或者其他这些东西。
I mean, what— we don't pay any attention to what people say about Coca-Cola stock or Gillette stock or any of those things.
我是说，在任何一天，Coca-Cola 的股票都可能成交两百万股。
I mean, on any given day, 2 million shares of Coca-Cola may trade.
那意味着有很多人在卖，也有很多人在买。
That's a lot of people selling, a lot of people buying.
你去问一个人，会听到一种说法；再去问另一个人——其实，真的不应该根据别人怎么想来做证券投资的决定。
And if you talk to one person, you'd hear one thing, and talk to another— it really— you really should not make decisions in securities based on what other people think.
如果你——如果你是在这么做，那你应该考虑去做点别的，因为——靠做公众意见调查，是没法让你在 Wall Street 发财的。
If you're— if you're doing that, you should think about doing something else, because it's— a public opinion poll will just— it will not get you rich on Wall Street.
所以，你真正应该坚持的是那些你觉得自己多少能够评估清楚的企业。
So you really want to stick with businesses that you feel you can somehow evaluate yourself.
而且我不觉得——我是说，Charlie 和我，我们不会去看那些——我也不会。
And I don't think— I mean, Charlie and I, we don't read anything about what— I don't either.
什么商业会怎么发展，经济会怎么走，市场会怎么走，或者别人会怎么说——任何时候我看到什么文章，说某些分析师对某个企业这样说那样说，这对我们来说都没有任何意义。
Business is going— the economy is going to do, or the market's going to do, or what anybody— anytime I see some article that says, you know, these analysts say this or that about some business, it just, it doesn't mean anything to us.
你不可能靠一个风向标发财。
You cannot, you cannot get rich with a weather vane.
七区？
Zone 7?