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1997年股东大会 · 巴菲特:几句话内就可以判断是否对投资一家公司感兴趣

42 段 · 3 位说话人 · 原片 5:12
M1
M10:00

你好,Munger 先生,Buffett 先生。

Hello, Mr. Munger and Mr. Buffett.

我叫 Lisa Rima,来自 California 的 Burbank。

My name is Lisa Rima from Burbank, California.

我想了解一下,刚才你们提到,你们会用一些过滤条件来看一家公司。

I wanted to find out, earlier you mentioned you looked at— you used filters to look at a company.

所以能不能详细说说,这些过滤条件具体是什么?

So could you elaborate on what those filters are?
M2
M20:16

Charlie,你来说吗?

Charlie, you want to?

这个嘛,我们一直都挺努力在这么做,而机会成本在人生里是个——是个非常大的过滤器。

Well, we've tried to do a good deal of that, and opportunity cost is a, is a huge filter in life.

如果有两个人都特别热切地追求你,但其中一个明显好得多,那你就没必要在另一个人身上花太多时间。

If you've got 2 suitors who are really eager to have you and one is way the hell better than the other, you do not have to spend much time with the other.

呃,我们筛选买股票的机会,基本上也是这个道理。

And, uh, and that's the way we filter stock-buying opportunities.

我们的想法其实特别简单,可大家老是想从我们这儿听到什么神秘诀窍,但我们有的其实只是最基本的理念。

Our ideas are so simple, people keep asking us for mysteries when all we have is the most elementary idea.
M3
M31:03

我们大概会先过的第一道筛选,就是我们是否认为——而且这个我们一下子就知道——我是说,这是不是我们能看懂的生意;如果这一关过了,再看这家公司有没有可能拥有可持续的优势。

The first filter we probably put it through is whether we think— and we know instantly— I mean, whether it's a business we're going to understand and whether it's a business that— if it passes through that, it's whether a company can have a sustainable edge.

你知道,光这一点,就能排除掉别人拿来的很大一部分东西。

You know, and that gets rid of a very significant percentage of the things people have.

他们总是想给你讲个什么故事之类的。我敢肯定,在他们看来,我和 Charlie 显得特别武断,因为我们往往在对方第一句话说到一半时,就会说,嗯,谢谢你打来,不过我们不感兴趣。

They always want to tell you some story or anything, and I'm sure they regard me and Charlie as very arbitrary in terms of, you know, in the middle of the first sentence saying, well, you know, we appreciate the call, but we're not interested.

我的意思是,他们就是会觉得,只要把一件事解释得足够多——我经常收到这方面的来信,而且——但我们确实能判断出来。

I mean, they, you know, they just think if they explain something enough— I get letters on this all the time, and— but we really can tell.
M2
M21:45

对。

Yeah.
M3
M31:46

通常在第一句话说到一半的时候,我们就能判断那两个因素存不存在。

In the middle of the first sentence, usually, whether those 2 factors exist.

如果我们看不懂,那显然我们就没法判断它是不是有可持续的优势。

And if we can't understand it, obviously it's not going to have— we can't make a decision as to whether it has a sustainable edge.

如果我们看得懂,那我们也常常很快就会得出结论:这不是那种会有可持续优势的生意。

And if we can understand it, we very often can come to the conclusion that it's not the kind of business where it will have a sustainable edge.

所以有百分之九十八的谈话,我们基本上在别人第一句话说到一半的时候就可以结束了,当然,这对打电话来的人来说,通常不怎么好接受。

So 98% of the conversations we can end, you know, in the middle of somebody's first sentence, which of course goes over very big with the caller.

不过,有时候如果谈的是整个企业,我们还可以通过——我们还可以通过打交道的人是谁,来判断这笔交易最终会不会成。

But, and then sometimes if you're talking about an entire business, we can tell by— we can tell by who we're dealing with whether a deal is ever going to work out or not.

我的意思是——如果正在搞拍卖,那我们不想——我们对谈这种事完全没兴趣。

I mean, it's— if there's an auction going on, we don't want to— we have no interest in talking about it.

而且,这种事你知道,反正就是成不了。

And, and it just isn't going to, you know, it isn't going to work.

如果一个人本质上就是想拿自己的企业这么操作,那你知道,等交易做完以后,他们还会坐下来,想把所有条款再跟我们重谈一遍;这样一来,在彻底搞定之前,我们等于得把这家企业买上两三次。

If someone is interested in essentially doing that with their business, you know, they're going to sit down and want to renegotiate everything with us all over again after the deal is done, and we're going to have to buy the business 2 or 3 times before we get through it.

这些情况,你一眼就能预见到。

You just, you just see all these things coming.

反过来说,一直以来,和我们合作过的人,基本上都给了我们非常好的经验。

And on the other hand, we've had, you know, terrific experience basically with the people we have associated with.

所以这套方法是有效的,也很高效。

So it works, it's efficient.

你知道,我们可不想整天听各种故事,我们也不看 brokerage report 之类的东西。

You know, we don't want to listen to stories all day, and we don't read brokerage reports or anything of the sort.

就是——就是——时间还有别的更值得做的事。

It's just— it just— there's other things to do with your time.
M2
M23:18

Charlie?

Charlie?

对,Warren 刚才暗示的另一个过滤条件,就是这个“高质量的人”这个概念。

Yeah, another filter that Warren was alluding to is this concept of the quality person.

当然,大多数人所谓的高质量的人,其实就是那种跟自己很像的人。

And of course, most people define quality person as somebody who is very much like themselves.
M3
M33:36

其实,我们刚才想找的词就是“完全一样”。

Identical, actually, is the word we were searching for.
M2
M23:41

但外面有很多很棒的人,也有很多很糟糕的人,而且往往是有迹象可循的,就像一些警示旗号一样,尤其是在那些糟糕的人身上。

But there's so many wonderful people out there, and there's so many awful people out there, and there's signs frequently, like flags, particularly over the awful people.

一般来说,这种人都要尽量避开。

Generally speaking, those people are to be avoided.

因为你一旦去信任某个很糟糕的人,会给自己的人生带来很多痛苦;而如果你建立了正确的商业关系,又会给自己带来很多幸福。

It's just the amount of misery you bring into your life by trusting some awful person and the amount of felicity that you can bring in by making the right business associations.

你看看这个房间里,就有一些非常棒的人,创建了非常棒的企业;他们的客户信任他们,员工信任他们,合作伙伴也信任他们,相信他们会公平对待问题,也会合理地把问题解决好。

Look around this room, and there's some wonderful people who have created some wonderful businesses, and their customers can trust them, the employees can trust them, the partners can trust them to, to, to be fairly faced and reasonably solved.

这才是你想找的那种人,而且别人会认真看待他们的承诺。

And those are the kind of people you want, and, and people will take their promises seriously.

我最近就碰到过一家公司,他们把自己的品牌放在某个产品上,后来同一个领域里有人发明了更好的产品,他们就把自己的品牌从那个产品上拿掉了。

I had some experience recently with a company, and they have their brand on a particular product, and somebody invented a better product in the same field, and they're taking their brand off their product.

我的意思是,如果那产品不是最好的,他们就不想把自己的品牌贴在上面。

I mean, if it isn't the best, they don't want their brand on it.

呃,像这样思考的人,往往在生意上会做得很好,而且这些信号其实是很明显的。

Uh, people who think like that frequently do very well in business, and, and the flags are flying.
M3
M35:02

我的意思是,这就好像他们胸前挂着个牌子,上面就写着“混蛋、混蛋、混蛋”,结果你还觉得自己买下这家公司以后,他们就不会再是混蛋了,你知道吧。

I mean, it's like they got a sign in the chest that just says jerk, jerk, jerk, and then, yeah, and then you think you're going to buy the business and they aren't going to be a jerk, you know, anymore.

我的意思是——

I mean, it's—.
M2
M25:12

对,对。

Right, right.