M20:55
嗯，我——我还是非常乐观的。而且说实话，当你有机会像我二十岁时那样，去和 Lorimer Davidson 这样的人交流时，我大概在那四五个小时里从他身上学到的东西，比我在大学里学到的还多——当然，除了 accounting 或者一两门那样的课程。
Well, I, I'm— I remain very optimistic. And, and frankly, when you get the chance to talk to somebody like Lorimer Davidson, as I did when I was 20 years old, I probably learned more from Lorimer Davidson in those 4 or 5 hours than I learned in, in college, with the, you know, exception of learning some accounting or one or two subjects like that.
所以你要做的，就是尽可能把这些东西都吸收进去。
So you just want to soak it up.
如果你具备你刚才说的那些特质，你会在一路走下去的过程中看到那些机会领域。
If you have those qualities you talked about, you'll see the areas as you go along.
我的意思是，我和 Charlie——我们大概是通过很多不同的方式赚到钱的，其中有些方式，是我们在三四十年前根本没有预料到的。
I mean, we have— Charlie and I probably, you know, we've made money in a lot of different ways, some of which we didn't anticipate, you know, 30 or 40 years ago.
但我们确实有能力识别其中一部分机会。
But we did have the ability to recognize some.
另外一些我们没有能力识别，但我们至少知道，什么时候我们真的知道自己在做什么，什么时候我们其实不知道。
We didn't have the ability to recognize others, but we did know when we knew what we were doing and when we didn't.
然后我们就一直继续寻找。
And we just kept looking.
我们对很多事情都保持着好奇心。
We had a curiosity about things.
比如说，在 Long-Term Capital Management 危机那样的时候，你就会知道，一定会有赚钱的方法出现。
You would know at a time like the Long-Term Capital Management crisis, for example, that there were going to be ways to make money.
我的意思是，那些机会就是会在那里，而你要做的，只是每天读书、思考八到十个小时，这样你就能覆盖大量可能性，其中很大一部分可能都不错，有些甚至会非常惊人。
I mean, it just was— they were going to be out there, and all you had to do was just read and think 8 or 10 hours a day, and you were going to cover a lot of possibilities, probably a very high percentage of them good and some of them sensational.
所以你没法提前把这一切都规划出来。
So you can't really lay it out ahead of time.
你不可能有一张明确的路线图，但你可以积累一个思考的储备：去看不同类型的企业，去看不同类型的 securities，去看不同地方的市场，这样当机会出现时，你就能识别出相当一部分。
You can't have a defined roadmap, but you can have a reservoir of thinking, looking at different kinds of businesses, looking at different kinds of securities, looking at markets in different places, and you will then spot a reasonable number of things that come along.
当然，你不可能把每一个机会都抓到。
You won't spot every one of them.
我们也错过过各种各样的机会。
We've missed all kinds of things.
但还有一件最重要的事，就是你的思维方式里得有一种机制，确保你永远不要去做那种可能让你损失惨重的事。
But the biggest thing too is to have something in the way you're programmed so that you don't ever do anything where you can lose a lot.
我的意思是，我们最好的想法未必比别人的最佳想法更好，但我们从来没有做过很多那种会把我们大幅拖回去的事。
I mean, our best ideas have not been better than other people's best ideas, but we've never had a lot of things that pulled us way back.
所以我们从来不是前进两步、后退一步。
So we, we never went 2 steps forward and 1 step back.
我们大概是前进两步，只后退了很小很小的一点。
We probably went 2 steps forward and a fraction of a step back.
但是，避免灾难性的错误是非常重要的，而且未来也同样重要。
But, but it, uh, avoiding the catastrophes is a very important thing, and it will be important in the future.
我的意思是，你以后一定会有机会参与到各种灾难里去。
I mean, you will have your chance to participate in catastrophes.
对，当然了，年轻的时候，应该去看的地方是那些低效市场。
Yeah, and of course, the place to look when you're young is in the inefficient markets.
你不该去猜，比如说，某一家药企的 drug pipeline 是不是比另一家更好。
You shouldn't be trying to guess whether, you know, one drug company has a better drug pipeline than another.
你年轻的时候，应该去那种效率很低的地方找机会。
You want to go, when you're young, someplace that's very inefficient.
你不该老想着去猜股票市场会不会涨，或者长期债券的收益率会怎么变。
And you shouldn't be trying to guess whether the stock market's going to go up or whether long-term bonds are going to change in yield.
我的意思是，在那种游戏里，你根本没什么优势；但在那些很少有人参与的游戏里，你可能会很有优势，甚至有些人对这个问题的理解从根子上就是错的。
I mean, you don't have anything going in that kind of a game, but you can have a lot going in games that very few people are playing, and maybe where they've even got their heads screwed on wrong in terms of how they're thinking about the subject.
RTC 就是一个特别好的例子，说明那里曾经有机会赚到很多钱。
The RTC was a great example of a chance to make a lot of money.
我的意思是，当时有一个卖家在卖价值几千亿美元的房地产，而负责卖这些东西的人自己在经济上跟它没有任何利益关系，他们只想赶紧把这件事收尾。
I mean, here was a seller of hundreds of billions of dollars' worth of real estate where the people that were selling it had no economic interest in it, were eager to wind up the thing.
而且你知道，他们还是在一个非常糟糕的时点卖的——那些过去敢于放贷的人，已经不再放贷了。
You know, and they were selling at a terrible time when the people who had been venturesome in lending were no longer lending.
那些过去敢在房地产股权这一端冒险的人，也已经被彻底清出局了。
The people who had been venturesome in the equity end of real estate had gotten cleaned out.
所以，当时的大环境其实非常有利；再加上在分析这些具体情况这件事上，买卖双方的投入程度又极不平衡：卖方是政府，下面是一群对这些资产没有经济利益、而且大概只想赶紧把工作做完的人；而另一边的买方，普遍又是比较谨慎的类型，因为更敢冒险的那一类人，已经退出战场了。
So you had a great background environment, and then you had an imbalance of intensity in terms of analyzing situations between the seller, which was the government, with a bunch of people who had no economic interest in it and were probably eager to wind up the job, and buyers on the other side who were of the generally cautious type, because the more venturesome type had taken themselves out of action.
而且当时的资产规模还非常巨大。
So, and there were huge amounts of property.
所以，你会碰到这种机会，而且以后还会碰到更多。
So you get these opportunities and you'll get more.
我的意思是，你这一生里不会缺少机会，虽然有些日子你会觉得机会很少。
I mean, there won't be any scarcity of opportunities in your life, although there will be days when you feel that way.
好，我们现在转到其他分会场去吧。
Okay, let's go to the other rooms now.
他们已经等着了。
They've been waiting.
十三号。
Number 13.