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2010年股东大会 · 巴菲特为何不去印度投资

38 段 · 3 位说话人 · 原片 4:33
F1
F10:00

印度的经济一直在以每年百分之七到百分之八的速度增长。

India's economy has been growing at 7-8% per year.

照这个速度下去,到二零四三年,它的 GDP 总量会超过美国。

At this rate, it will surpass total US GDP in 2043.

你能不能告诉我,为什么你们不投资印度?

Can you please tell me why aren't you investing in India?
M1
M10:18

嗯,这是个好问题。

Well, that's a good question.

很显然,我们在那里是有一些联系的。

And we have connections there, obviously.

一直没有。

It hasn't.

在保险领域,对于非印度公司、非印度人持有的公司能做什么,一直都有非常明确的限制。

In the insurance field, there have been very distinct limitations on what a non-Indian company, a non-Indian-owned company, can do.

我们——我们看过很多,也主要是通过 Ajit,我们认真研究过在那里做保险业务的可能性。

We would— we've looked a lot, and mostly through Ajit, we've looked a lot at the possibility of being in the insurance business there.

实际上,就在昨天,我已经同意明年三月去印度,因为我们的 ISCAR 业务在那里做得非常好,不过我也不知道他们觉得我还能额外做些什么。

And actually, as of yesterday, I agreed next March to go to India because our ISCAR business is doing very well there, but I don't know what they think I can do additionally.

但不管怎么说,他们说,三月来一趟印度吧,看看我们能不能把业务大幅扩张。

But in any event, they said, come on to India in March and see if we can't expand it substantially.

印度将会出现非常惊人的增长,而 ISCAR 应该进入世界上每一个工业国家。

India is going to grow dramatically, and ISCAR belongs in every industrial country in the world.

我的意思是,我们对工业来说是非常基础的一环,而且我们已经为全世界的客户创造了很大的价值。

I mean, we are very basic to industry, and we've done wonders for our customers all over the world.

我们在印度已经有相当规模的业务了,不过 ISCAR 的管理层希望,如果我们三月过去一趟,也许还能再拿下几个客户。

And we have a good-sized operation in India, but ISCAR management hopes that if we take a trip over there in March, we might land a few more accounts.

无论是直接投资还是可交易证券,我们都没有把印度排除在外,这点请相信我。

We do not rule out India, believe me, in looking at either direct investments or marketable securities.

事实上,POSCO—— Charlie 对 POSCO 的情况比我更了解,不过他们对印度有很大的计划。

In fact, POSCO— Charlie can describe the POSCO situation better than I, but they, they have big plans for India.

Charlie?

Charlie?
M2
M21:55

对,印度带来的一个问题是,它的政府往往会有相当程度的瘫痪状态,流程审查没完没了,反对意见也没完没了。

Yeah, the one trouble that India presents is that its governments tend to have a fair amount of paralysis, endless due process, endless objection.

分区审批很难,规划许可很难,诸如此类。

Zoning is hard, planning permissions are hard, etc.

这也让现代 Singapore 那位非常睿智的奠基人说过,中国会比印度增长得快得多,因为他们的政府造成的停滞更少。

And that has caused the very wise founder of modern Singapore to say that China is going to grow much faster than India because their government causes less paralysis.

所以这些国家是不一样的。

So these countries are different.
F1
F12:37

对。

Yes.
M2
M22:38

它们所提供的机会也不一样。

In the opportunities they, they present.

当然,我们喜欢印度,而且我们某种程度上也欣赏那种会导致停滞的民主制度,但我们还是不喜欢这种停滞。

Of course, we like India, and we, and we, we kind of admire the democracy that causes the paralysis, but we still don't like the paralysis.
M1
M12:51

不过,这也不是命中注定的。

It's not, it's not ordained, however.

那个,呃,你知道,如果你在四十年前看中国,你不会——你根本想不到后来会发生的事情。

The, uh, you know, if you'd looked at China 40 years ago, you would not have, you know, been as— you wouldn't have dreamt of what would happen.

所以国家之间是会互相学习的。

So countries do learn from each other.

我的意思是,如果——而且它们也应该这样。

I mean, if— and they should.

我的意思是,我觉得它们已经从美国学到了很多东西,然后加以调整适应。

I mean, and I think they've learned many things from the U.S. that they adapt.

我不是专门在说印度,我说的是其他国家总体上都是这样。

I'm not talking about India specifically, I'm talking about other countries generally.

它们不会把我们拥有的一切都照单全收,但如果你看到一个成功的国家——这个国家已经成功了两百多年——你可能会觉得,里面总有一些好点子是值得拿来借鉴的。

They don't, they don't take on everything we have, but if you looked at a, a country that was successful, this country's been over a couple hundred years, you might figure that there could be a few good ideas you could steal.

我觉得你在全世界都能看到这一点,而且说不定他们还能比我们做得更好。

And I think that you're seeing that around the world, and maybe they can improve on us.

所以我不觉得现在存在的那些增长障碍,就一定会永远存在下去。

So I don't think I would feel that any impediments to growth that exist now are necessarily ones that have to be permanent.

India——我们也应该想出很多办法,在这些国家开展业务。

India— and we ought to figure out a lot of ways to do business in those countries.

我的偏好当然还是像 insurance 这样的行业,这是我懂的领域,而且我们在这方面有非常出色的人才。

My preference is obviously in something like insurance, which I understand, and where we've got terrific people.

China 和 India 现在都对我们能持有一家公司的股份比例,有相当大的限制。

Both China and India do limit us right now quite significantly in what we can own of a company.

而且我真的很不愿意把我们的一些管理人才派去做那种我们只拥有百分之二十五股权的业务。

And I really hate to take some of our managerial talent and put them to work for something we only own 25% of.

我更希望他们去做那种我们百分之百拥有的业务。

I'd rather have them working on something we own 100% of.

所以这要看相关法律,不过 India 的人二十年后生活一定会比现在好得多,就像 China 的人会这样,United States 的人也会这样。

And so it will depend on the laws, but people in India are going to be living a lot better 20 years from now than they are now, as they are in China and as they are in the United States.