M1
M10:00
我想请教一下主席先生和 Munger 先生，关于 Freddie Mac 的问题。
I'd like to ask the Chairman and Mr. Munger about Freddie Mac.
几年前，我觉得他们大部分的盈利，主要还是来自担保费和 float。
A few years ago, I think they were earning most of their money from the guarantee fees and the float.
现在他们有一个巨大的资产负债表，还有很多短期负债。
Now they've got the huge balance sheet, a lot of short-term liabilities.
你们觉得现在这门生意是不是风险更大了，因为在某些你知道的、那种事先没怎么预料到的事件里，这个利差可能会消失？
Do you think that's a more risky business now, in that the spread might go away in some, you know, less-than-foreseen event?
M2
M20:22
Charlie，我觉得这个问题是冲着你来的。
Charlie, I think he aimed that one at you.
M1
M10:26
这仍然是一门非常好的生意。
It's still a very good business.
M2
M20:30
对，这个问题说的是，Freddie Mac 以前非常强调的，主要只是信用担保，然后把所有利率风险都转给市场。
Yeah, what the question referred to is that formerly Freddie Mac emphasized enormously just the guarantee of credit and then passed all interest rate risk onto the market.
现在他们把经手的按揭贷款里，更大比例的部分留在了自己的投资组合里。
Now they've retained for their portfolio a greater percentage of the mortgages that come through their hands.
我觉得他们在负债结构上的安排还是很聪明的，目的是处理投资界所谓的 convexity problem。这个问题在于，借款人可以选择明天就终止这笔交易，或者一直保留三十年。
I think they've structured the liabilities quite intelligently to handle what they call in the investment world the convexity problem, but which is that the borrower has the option of calling off the deal tomorrow and/or retaining it for 30 years.
如果你是放贷的一方，这种合同签起来是非常不利的。
And that is a very disadvantageous contract to enter into if you lend money.
他们通过 callable debt 以及各种办法，在应对这个问题上做得相当聪明。
They've done quite an intelligent job of attacking that by callable debt and various things.
但是，这种问题你没法彻底解决。
But you can't address a problem like that totally.
你不可能建立一个什么模型，把这种风险完完全全都覆盖掉。
There's no way to set up some model that satisfies that entire risk.
他们做得不错，不过就像 Charlie 说的，相对于担保费来说，投资组合越大——因为投资组合本身你还是承担了信用风险，同时又额外加上了一点利率风险。
They've done a good job, but as Charlie says, the larger the portfolio as compared to guarantee fees—because you've still got the credit risk on the portfolio and you've added a little interest rate risk.
是在极端情况下的利率风险。
Interest rate risk at the extremes.
这倒不至于让我们晚上睡不着，但确实比以前稍微更冒险了一点。
And it doesn't keep us up nights, but it's a tiny bit riskier than it used to be.
五区？
Zone 5?