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1996年股东大会 · 巴菲特点评华尔街及证券行业的本质

26 段 · 2 位说话人 · 原片 2:45
M1
M10:00

我是来自 Chicago 的 Randall Bellows。

I'm Randall Bellows from Chicago.

感谢你们进行了这么一场马拉松式的问答。

Thank you for this marathon question and answer period.
M2
M20:06

我们很享受,谢谢。

We enjoy it, thanks.
M1
M10:08

我的问题是关于证券行业、广义上的 Wall Street 公司,还有更具体一点,就是你们现在怎么看 Salomon。

My question is on the securities business, Wall Street firms in general, and specifically what you feel about Salomon at this time.

谢谢。

Thank you.

嗯,我们现在对证券行业的了解,比十年前要多了,而且这个行业,你知道,是个很难做的行业。

Well, we know more about the securities business than we knew 10 years ago, and it, you know, it is a tough business.
M2
M20:27

很难管理。

To manage.

这个行业里能赚很多钱——我说的是整个 Wall Street。

There's a lot of money made in the business and then the— throughout Wall Street I'm talking about.

你知道,这里面能赚到非常大笔的钱,然后问题就在于,这些钱怎么在机构和里面的人之间分配。

There's, you know, there's very big sums of money made and then the question is how does it get divided up between the institution and the people there.

然后就会回到这个问题上。我经常打个比方,就是说,如果你是个投资者,你有机会买下 Mayo Clinic。你知道,这是一种投资。

And you get to this question, I've often used the analogy of, you know, would you rather, if you're an investor and you get a chance to buy the Mayo Clinic. You know, that is one sort of an investment.

如果你有机会买下本地一个脑外科医生,那又是另一种。

And if you get a chance to buy the local brain surgeon, that's another one.

你花 X 百万美元买下这个本地脑外科医生和他的诊所,结果到了第二天,你知道,你到底拥有了什么?

You buy the local brain surgeon and his practice for X millions of dollars, and the next day, you know, what do you own?

而且——如果你买的是这个本地脑外科医生,你就不会按什么真正的市盈率去出价,因为过几天他就会突然意识到,真正创造这些收益的是他,不是你,不是你手里那张小小的股票凭证,而且靠的是他的名声。

And it's— if you're buying the local brain surgeon, you would not pay any real multiple of earnings because he's going to have this revelation several days later that it's really him and not you there with your little stock certificate that's producing the earnings, and it's his reputation.

他根本不会在乎。

And he doesn't care.

你能想象 Berkshire Hathaway 去打脑外科手术的广告吗?

Can you imagine Berkshire Hathaway advertising brain surgery?

你知道我们能接到多少生意吗?

You know how much business we would do?

所以,哪怕股票凭证在你手里,其实这个生意还是他自己的。

So, he owns the business even though you've got the stock certificate.

但如果你去看 Mayo Clinic,除非你住在 Rochester 十英里范围内,不然没人能说出 Mayo Clinic 里任何一个人的名字。

Now, if you go to the Mayo Clinic, no one can name the name of anybody at the Mayo Clinic unless you live within 10 miles of Rochester.

而他们这个机构本身,

And they're the institution.

才是有力量的。

Has the power.

当然,它也必须维持质量,做好一个机构该做的所有事情,但是,不管是谁拥有 Mayo Clinic,他拥有的都是一种资产,这种资产并不取决于第二天那个地方某一个人的态度。

Now, it has to keep, keep quality up and do all the things that an institution has to do, but, but whoever owns the Mayo Clinic has an asset that is independent of the attitude of any one person in the place the next day.

Wall Street 是这两种情况的混合体。有些业务的价值更多是存在于机构本身,有些则更多是存在于个人身上。

Wall Street has a mix of both, and there's some businesses that are more, where the value resides more in the institution, and there's some where the value resides more in the individuals.

我们有几位非常出色的人在管理 Salomon,他们一路上都在跟这个问题较劲,而看起来,他们现在处理这个问题的成效,明显比接近一年前的时候要好得多。

We've got a couple of sensational people running Salomon, and they wrestle with this problem as they go along, and they seem to be wrestling considerably more successfully currently than was the case close to a year ago.

但这不是一个容易经营的行业,也不是一个容易预测的行业。

But it is not an easy business to run, and it's not an easy business to predict.

除非你拥有的是一种机构属性非常强的业务,而 Wall Street 这种业务并不多。

Unless you have a business that's very institutional in character, and there aren't many of those in Wall Street.

6 区?

Zone 6?