2003年股东大会 · 芒格：烦躁的性格是长期表现的敌人 — 文稿

M10:00

嗨，我是 Bruce Gilbert，来自 New York City 的一位股东。

Hi, I'm Bruce Gilbert, a stockholder from New York City.

大概在四五年前，我把我们家大部分的投资组合，实际上是全部，都投进了 Berkshire Hathaway。

And about 4 or 5 years ago, I put most of my family's portfolio, actually all of it, into Berkshire Hathaway.

而在过去这四五年里，股价基本上一直挺平稳的。我也熬过了二零零零年——那时候朋友们都赚了百分之五十，而我的投资却亏了百分之五十。

And over the past 4 or 5 years, the stock price has remained rather steady, and I've withstood the year 2000 when friends were making 50% and I was losing 50% on my investment.

但我得承认，去年我读到你在 Fortune 上的那篇文章，看到你把这个股价说成偏贵的时候，我心里很不好受。

But I have to admit, when I read your Fortune article last year and you referred to the stock price as expensive, I felt badly.

现在，我白天有时候还挺享受琢磨 Berkshire Hathaway 到底值多少钱，但在你说了那番评论之后，晚上我也会因为担心和焦虑而惊醒。

Now, I spend my days sometimes having fun figuring out the value of Berkshire Hathaway, but at night after that comment, I could also wake up in worry and fret.

我也知道，你最近谈了很多关于事情的定性和定量层面。

And I realize you talked recently a lot about the qualitative and quantitative aspects of things.

所以我想请你，站在你这种会自我反思的角度上——我知道我这等于是在请你做一件有点像让你描述自己怎么呼吸那样的事——说说你当时为什么会说这个股价偏贵，你心里用的权重和衡量标准到底是什么？

And I guess I would like you, with your self-reflective position and knowing that I'm asking you to do something like maybe talking about your breathing, what went into that comment to call the stock price expensive in terms of your weights and measures?

什么价位？

What price?

什么价值？

What value?

当你说它偏贵的时候，你对这家公司和它的股价到底是怎么想的？

What do you think about the company and its stock price when you say it's expensive?

M21:16

我觉得如果你——我不记得那篇文章的原话了，但我很确定我当时跟那篇文章的作者说过，而且我几乎可以肯定文章里也写进去了，我说的是——我觉得它比持有，呃，大盘或者 S&P 更有吸引力。

I think if you— I don't remember the exact wording of that article, but I'm quite sure that I told the author of that article, and I'm almost positive it was in the article, that I said it was— I thought it was more attractive than owning, uh, the general market or the S&P.

所以我的意思是，相比整个市场，我更愿意持有它。

So I was saying that I preferred it to the general market.

你也知道，我当然很乐意让自己百分之九十九点多的净资产都放在里面。

I'm certainly happy having, you know, 99 and a large fraction percent of my net worth in it.

我从来没有卖过一股。

I've never sold a share.

我完全不会对一直持有它直到我死那天这件事感到不舒服。

I am not the least bit uncomfortable about holding it until the day I die.

甚至死后很久都没问题。

And quite a bit thereafter.

但有一段时间以来，我确实一直不觉得股票便宜，而且我从来不想鼓励任何人，尤其是过去这几年里，去买 Berkshire 或任何别的股票，因为市场——我觉得当时存在一个巨大的泡沫。

But I have not thought stocks were cheap at all for some time, and I've never wanted to encourage anybody, particularly in the last few years, to buy Berkshire or any other stock because the market— I felt that the, you know, I felt we had a great bubble.

而且，你知道，我认为 Berkshire 的价值这些年提升得相当明显，我想 Charlie 也这么看。

And, you know, I think Berkshire's value has improved, I think Charlie does too, fairly significantly in recent years.

如果我现在有机会可以免税地把我持有的 Berkshire 换成 S&P 500，或者换成任何 mutual fund 之类的东西，你知道，我连想都不会想一下。

And I would, if I had a chance to swap tax-free my Berkshire for the S&P 500 or for any mutual fund or anything, you know, I wouldn't even, I wouldn't give it a thought.

但这并不代表我觉得，你知道，不管是 Berkshire 还是股票，价格都便宜。

But that does not mean I think, you know, either Berkshire or stocks are cheap.

M12:44

Charlie？

Charlie?

M22:46

我没什么要补充的。

I've got nothing to add to that.

据我记得，我们好像从来没有——我记得我们从来没有建议过别人买入或卖出 Berkshire。

I don't think we've ever— I don't think we've ever recommended the purchase or sale of Berkshire that I can remember.

我们倒是有一次说过我们会回购股票，这背后当然带着某种信息；另外有些时候我们也说过，我们不会买入股票。

We did say at one time we would repurchase shares, which has a certain underlying message to it, and we said at other times we wouldn't buy shares.

那并不意味着我们就会卖出股票，但在当时那种条件下，我们是不会去买的。

That doesn't mean we'd sell shares at all, but we wouldn't have bought them under the prevailing conditions.

不过我们一直避免去明确建议，不只是避免建议买卖 Berkshire，也包括任何其他具体的股票。

But we've stayed away from recommending actually not only the purchase or sale, not only of Berkshire, but just of any other specific shares.

我们只是偶尔表达一下，对于整个股票市场所处水平的看法。

We've only given our views occasionally on what we think about the level of the stock market generally.

但我确实觉得，如果你回头去看看那篇文章——我真希望我手头有那篇文章——不过我想你会发现，我当时说的是，相比一般的 equities，我更偏好它。

But I do think if you go back and look at that article, I wish I had it. But I think you'll find that I said I preferred it to equities generally.

我确实认为，培养一种能够持有证券而不焦虑的性情，这件事很值得。

I do think that there's a lot to be said for developing a temperament that can own securities without fretting.

我觉得，容易烦躁焦虑的性格是——它是长期表现的敌人。

I think that the fretful disposition is the— it's an enemy of long-term performance.

嗯，差不多——我觉得，如果你每天晚上睡觉前想的都是股票价格，那你几乎不可能在很长一段时间里把股票投资做得很好。

Well, it's almost— I think it's almost impossible if you're— to do well in equities over a period of time if you go to bed every night thinking about the price of them.

我是说，Charlie 和我，我们想的是它们的价值，不过我们其实会很乐意，就像那部电影里那样。

I mean, Charlie and I, we think about the value of them, but we would be happy just as in that movie.

如果明天证券交易所关门了，你知道，Dick Grasso 不会高兴，Jimmy Maguire，我们的 specialist，也不会高兴。

If they close the stock exchange tomorrow, you know, Dick Grasso wouldn't be happy and Jimmy Maguire, our specialist, wouldn't be happy.

但这对我和 Charlie 来说，根本一点都不会造成困扰。

It wouldn't bother me and Charlie at all.

我们还是会继续卖砖头，卖 Dairy Queen，卖糖果，承保保险。

We would keep selling bricks, selling Dairy Queen, selling candy, writing insurance.

你知道，很多人都有 private companies，他们从来都没有人给这些公司报价。

You know, a lot of people have private companies and they never get a quote on them.

你知道，我们是一九七二年买下 See's Candy 的。

You know, we bought See's Candy in 1972.

从那以后，我们就再也没看到过它的报价。

We haven't had a quote on it since.

那会不会让我们怀疑，我们经营 See's Candy 到底做得怎么样吗？

Does that make us wonder about how we're doing with See's Candy?

不会。

No.

我们看的是公司的经营结果。

We looked at the company results.

所以——关注公司的经营结果，这本身一点问题都没有。

So you— there's nothing wrong with focusing on company results.

而盯着股票价格看——那简直是炸药，因为这实际上意味着，你觉得股市比你更懂。

Focusing on the price of a stock is— is dynamite because it really means that you think that the stock market knows more than you do.

当然，股市也许真的比你更懂，但如果是那样，你就不该买股票。

Now, the stock market may know more than you do, but then you shouldn't be in stocks.

我是说，你得明白——股市是来为你服务的，不是来教导你的。

I mean, you should have— the stock market is there to serve you and not to instruct you.

所以你得自己形成对价格和价值的判断。

So you need to formulate your ideas on price and value.

如果价格变得更便宜，而你手上又有资金，那按逻辑来说，你就应该买更多。

And if the price gets cheaper and you have funds, you know, logically you should buy more.

而我们一直都是这么做的。

And we do that all the time.

坦白说，我们犯错的地方，恰恰是在我们同时看价格和价值，然后开始买，结果价格稍微涨了一点，我们就停手了。

Where we make our mistakes, frankly, is where we focus on price and value and we start buying and the price goes up a little and we quit.

就像 Charlie 刚才提到的，我们在 See's Candy 上可能就做过这种事。

You know, like Charlie referred to, we might have done on See's Candy.

像这样的错误，几年前在 Walmart 股票这件事上，让我们付出了八十亿美元的代价，因为它涨价了。

A mistake like that cost us $8 billion in the case of Walmart stock a few years ago because it went up in price.

而且，你知道，我们在买的东西涨价时，我们其实是不高兴的。

And, you know, we are not happy when things we're buying go up in price.

我们希望它一直跌，一直跌，一直跌。

We want to go down and down and down.

这样我们就能继续买更多，希望别把钱买光了。

And we'll keep buying more, and hopefully we won't run out of money.

当然，那又是另外一回事了。

Of course, that's a different story.

Charlie，第四个问题。

Charlie, number 4.