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2007年股东大会 · 巴菲特:赌博是对无知的征税

39 段 · 2 位说话人 · 原片 4:28
M1
M10:00

你好,你好。

Hello, hello.

我叫 Johan Freudenberg,来自 Germany 的 Hanover。

My name is Johan Freudenberg from Hanover, Germany.

你觉得赌博公司会有很好的未来吗?

Do you think gambling companies will have a great future?

谢谢。

Thank you.

什么样的公司?

What kind of companies?
M2
M20:13

赌博公司。

Gambling companies.
M1
M10:14

赌博公司。

Gambling companies.

如果合法的话,赌博公司的前景会非常好。

Gambling companies will have a terrific future if they're legal.

至于具体是哪些公司之类的,我就不了解了,但人们想赌博的欲望一直都在。顺便说一句,他们在股票上也会赌。

That, you know, which ones or anything, I don't know anything about that, but desire of people to gamble. And they gamble in stocks, incidentally, too.

这个,日内交易,我会说,它很多时候都非常接近我们所定义的赌博。

Uh, day trading, I would say, very often was—came very close to, uh, gambling as defined.

嗯,不过人就是喜欢赌,你知道。

Uh, um, but people, people like to gamble, you know.

我的意思是,如果 Super Bowl 正在打,或者更进一步说,就算是一场无聊得要命的橄榄球比赛在播,但你又没别的事可做,你跟另一个人坐在那儿,如果你们押上几块钱,不管押哪边,你多半都会觉得这场比赛更有意思。

I mean, it's—if, if the Super Bowl is on, or even—well, better yet, if a terribly boring football game is on but you don't have anything to do, and you're sitting there with somebody else, you're probably going to enjoy the game more if you bet a few bucks on it one way or the other.

你也知道,我们承保飓风,所以我会看 Weather Channel,不过那——也可能挺刺激的。

As you know, I mean, we insure hurricanes, so I watch the Weather Channel, but that's a—it can be exciting.

但是,人类想赌博的天性是非常强的。

But people, the human propensity to gamble is huge.

以前赌博合法的地方基本上只有 Nevada,所以你要想认真赌一把,要么得跑很远,要么就得违法。

Now, when it was legalized only in pretty much in Nevada, you had to go to some distance or break some laws to do any serious gambling.

但是各州慢慢意识到,嗯,这其实是个很好的财政收入来源,于是他们就逐渐让人们赌博变得越来越容易、越来越容易、越来越容易。

But as the states learned to, uh, you know, what a great source of, of revenue it was, uh, they gradually made it easier and easier and easier for people to gamble.

而且相信我,越容易,人们就会赌得越多。

And believe me, the easier it's made, uh, the more people will gamble.

我是说,我当年——我的孩子们今天也在这儿——四十年前,我买了一台 slot machine,放在我们家三楼,只要他们的零花钱是用一角硬币发的,我想给多少就给多少。

I mean, when I was—my children are here—and 40 years ago, I bought a slot machine and I put it up on our third floor, and I could give my kids any allowance they wanted as long as it was in dimes.

我的意思是,到了天黑前,那些钱我就全拿回来了。

I mean, I had it all back by nightfall.

我觉得这会给他们上很好的一课。

I thought it would be a good lesson for them.

当然,他们当时不会特地跑去 Las Vegas 才玩这个,但相信我,只要那台机器放在三楼,他们就一定找得到。

And now, they weren't going to Las Vegas to do it, but believe me, when it was on the third floor, they could find it, you know.

而且我的返奖率也低得离谱,不过我就是那样的父亲。

My payout ratio was terrible too, but that's the kind of father I was.

但是,赌博这件事,你知道,人们永远都会想去做。

The—but gambling, you know, people are always going to want to do it.

也正因为如此,我特别觉得,怎么说呢,像朋友之间随便玩玩之类的,我并不是那种特别保守、特别反对的人,但我确实认为,在相当大程度上,赌博就是对无知征税。

And for that reason, I particularly think that access, you know, in terms of friendly gambling or anything like that, I'm not a prude about it, but I do think that to quite an extent, gambling is a tax on ignorance.

我的意思是,如果你想对那些无知的人征税——那些明知道胜算对自己不利还要去做的人——你只要把这个东西摆出来,像我这样的人就可以不用交税了。

I mean, if you want to, if you want to tax the ignorant people who will do things with the odds against them, you know, you just put it in, and guys like me don't have to pay taxes.

而且我真的不——我觉得,当政府利用自己公民的弱点来捞钱时,这在社会层面上让我感到很反感。

And I really don't—I find that, I find it kind of socially revolting when a government preys on the weaknesses of its citizenry.

而不是去真正服务他们。

Rather than acts to serve them.

而且,而且相信我,当一个政府——

And, and believe me, when a government—.
M2
M23:10

它就靠这个过日子。

It lives.
M1
M13:11

你知道,当一个政府让人们很容易就把自己的 Social Security 支票拿去拉老虎机把手,或者去买彩票,不管是什么形式吧,这都是一种非常犬儒的做法。

You know, when a government makes it easy for people to take their Social Security checks and start pulling handles, uh, or participating in lotteries or whatever it may be, it's a pretty cynical act.

这招管用。

It works.

这其实是个挺愤世嫉俗的做法,而且,呃,它等于是在给那些——你知道——没上这种当的人减税,或者说,给那些不是老做梦、想着有辆车而不是真的去拥有一辆车,想着有台彩色电视而不是已经有一台的人减税。

It's a pretty cynical act, and it, uh, it relieves taxes on those, you know, who don't fall for those, and, or who aren't dreaming about having a car instead of actually having a car, dreaming about a color TV instead of having one.

呃,所以这不是政府最好的做法。

Uh, so it's, it's not government at its best.

而且我觉得,随着时间过去,别的问题也会由此慢慢滋生出来。

And I think other things flow from that over time too.

Charlie?

Charlie?
M2
M23:55

对,我会说,赌博赌场会利用一些很聪明的心理手段,让人们自己伤害自己。

Yeah, I would argue that the gambling casinos use clever psychological tricks to cause people to hurt themselves.

毫无疑问,赌场里确实有不少无害的消遣娱乐,但同时也有很多严重的伤害,而且是赌场刻意造成的。

There is undoubtedly a lot of harmless amusement in the casinos, but there's also a lot of grievous injury that is deliberately caused by the casinos.

这是个肮脏的行业,我觉得你们短期内不会在 Berkshire Hathaway 里看到赌场。

It's a dirty business, and I don't think you'll find a casino soon in Berkshire Hathaway.
M1
M14:22

请第十个问题。

Number 10, please.