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8岁股东的提问

41 段 · 3 位说话人 · 原片 5:36
F1
F10:00

我叫 Daphne Collier Starr。

My name is Daphne Collier Starr.

我今年八岁,住在纽约市。

I'm 8 years old and live in New York City.

我已经持有两年股票了,这是我第二次参加年度股东大会。

I've been a shareholder for 2 years, and this is my second annual shareholders meeting.

Berkshire Hathaway 最优秀、也正是靠这些投资建立起声誉的投资,都是投向像 Coke、See's Candy、American Express 和 GEICO 这样资本效率非常高的企业。

Berkshire Hathaway's best investments on which the company built its reputation have been in very capital-efficient businesses such as Coke, See's Candy, American Express, and GEICO.

但最近,Berkshire 对几家企业进行了非常大额的投资,而这些企业需要投入巨额资本来维持运营,而且只能获得受监管的低回报率,比如 Burlington Northern Railroad。

But recently Berkshire has made really big investments in a few businesses that require huge capital investments to maintain and that offer only a regulated low rate of return, such as Burlington Northern Railroad.

我的问题是,Buffett 先生,您能不能解释一下,为什么 Berkshire 最近规模最大的几笔投资,偏离了您过去一贯的 capital-efficient 理念?

My question to you, Mr. Buffett, is could you please explain why Berkshire's largest recent investments have departed from your old capital-efficient philosophy?

还有,为什么您具体选择投资 Burlington Northern,而不是买入像 American Express 这样资本效率高的公司呢?

And why specifically have you invested in Burlington Northern instead of buying a capital-efficient company like American Express?
M1
M11:54

Daphne,你这是要我的命啊。

You're killing me, Daphne.
M2
M22:00

是啊,我真庆幸她还没九岁。

Yeah, I'm certainly glad she's not 9 years old.
M1
M12:03

是啊。

Yeah.

我坐在这儿就在想,明年我们要把六位嘉宾中的哪一位换掉,然后让你来顶上。

I'm just sitting here thinking which of the 6 panelists we're going to bump next year and put you in.

我记得自己十一岁时买进 Cities Service,就觉得已经表现得不错了。

Well, I thought I was doing well when I bought that Cities Service at 11.

答案是,我们当然喜欢那些资本回报率非常高的企业。比如我们买下 See's Candy 的时候,它就是这样的企业,还有很多其他公司也是如此。

The answer is that we'd love—we always prefer the businesses that earn terrific returns on capital, like See's Candy when we bought it, or a good many of the businesses.

而且 American Express 的股本回报率非常高,这么多年来一直都是这样。

And American Express earns a terrific return on equity and has for a very long time.

我们买下 Burlington Northern,基本上是因为,我们没办法再以自己认为合理的价格,把更多资金投入 capital-light businesses 了。

The fact that we buy Burlington Northern means that essentially we can't get more money deployed in capital-light businesses at prices that make sense to us.

所以我们就进入了一些资本密集型企业。这些企业也很不错,但如果我们能在没有火车、铁轨、隧道、桥梁,还有其他那些东西的情况下经营铁路,那该多好啊。

And so we have gone into more capital-intensive businesses that are good businesses, but wouldn't it be wonderful if we could run the railroad without trains and track and tunnels and bridges and a few things?

这些资本密集型企业能给我们带来还算不错的回报。

We get a decent return on the capital-intensive businesses.

我们买下其中大多数时,价格都相当不错;买下来以后,它们的经营也一直非常出色。

We bought most of them at very decent prices, and they've been run very well since we bought them.

我们依然喜欢这样的企业:只需要很少的资本,却能获得很高的回报,而且还能持续增长,只需要投入很少的新增资本。

We still love a business that takes very little capital and earns high returns and continues to grow and requires very little incremental capital.

只是我们没办法把手头这么多钱都用这种方式投出去。

We can't deploy as much money as we have in doing that.

所以,第二好的选择,仍然算是一个好选择吗?

And so, is the second-best choice still a good choice?

答案是,算。

The answer is yes.

当然,它没有最好的选择那么好。

It's not as good as the best choice.

Charlie?

Charlie?
M2
M24:09

嗯,是的,我喜欢这位年轻女士的目标。

Well, yes, I like the aspiration of that young lady.

她基本上是想从别人销售额里拿一笔 royalty。当然了,这确实是个非常好的模式。

She basically wants a royalty on the other fellow's sales, and of course, that's a very good model.

如果每个人都能这么做,那谁还会去做别的事呢?

And if everybody could do that, why, nobody would do anything else.

我们之所以满足于公用事业和铁路业务的回报,是因为这些回报相当令人满意。

The reason we're satisfied with our utility returns and our railroad returns is they're quite satisfactory.

确实相当令人满意。

And they're quite satisfactory.

我希望我们还能再找到两家这样的企业。

I wish we had 2 more just like them.

你不是这样吗,Warren?

Don't you, Warren?
M1
M14:41

对,当然是这样。

Yeah, definitely.
M2
M24:43

所以,答案就是,它们已经足够好了,而你要求的是完美。

So the answer is they're good enough, and you're asking us to get perfection.

比如说,如果你想让我们把所有钱都投在 Coke 上,而且买入价只有它现在售价的百分之五。

If you want us to have all our money in Coke at, say, 5% of what it's now selling for.
M1
M14:56

对,而且像 Apple 这样的企业,其实不需要投入太多资本。

Yeah, and a business like Apple really doesn't take much capital.

但你得花很多钱,才能买下这样的企业。

But so you've got to spend a lot of money to buy businesses like that.

而且愿意出售的非常少。

Very few are for sale.

答案是,我们从来没有放弃过任何机会。只要是那些能取得高回报、能让股东权益资本获得非常高回报的企业,或者只要价格合理,我们就会买下这些企业。

And the answer is, we have not foregone any opportunity to buy businesses that earn high returns, very high returns on equity capital, or when we could buy them at a sensible price, to buy these other businesses.

所以,它们并没有把其他任何机会挤出我们的选择范围。

So they haven't shoved anything else off the table.

不过,你肯定可以在我们的资本配置部门谋到一份工作。

But you definitely have a job in our capital allocation department.

好,Carol。

Okay, Carol.