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什么话题能让芒格滔滔不绝(当然是Costco)

23 段 · 3 位说话人 · 原片 2:47
M1
M10:00

Warren、Charlie,再次谢谢你们邀请我们,也谢谢你们邀请我来。

Hey, Warren, Charlie, thank you again for having us and having me.

对于你们为我们留下的这些成果,以及你们用自己的原则树立的典范,我真是怎么感谢、怎么欣赏都不为过。

I just can't thank you guys enough and appreciate you guys enough for the body of work that you guys have delivered to us and the exemplary example that you guys have set with your principles.

谢谢。

Thank you.

Charlie,你刚才提到过,如果有机会,或者说如果拥有同样的机会、但管理的是规模更小的资金,你还是会去寻找被错误定价的股票机会。

Charlie, you mentioned that— Charlie, you've mentioned that if given the chance, or the same chance with a smaller capital base, you would still look for mispriced stock opportunities.

当然。

Of course.

而这个判断,显然要看我们所说的那家机构或公司的内在价值,也就是未来现金流折现后的总和。

And that would be determined through obviously what we call the intrinsic value of the organization or the company in question, an aggregate of the discounted future cash flows.

你能不能用一组虚构的数据来演算一下,说明如何运用数学原理来确定内在价值?

Would you work the arithmetic using a fictional dataset to illustrate the mathematical principles to determine an intrinsic value?

我希望你也能把判断时考虑的关键指标、对管理层的定性评估,以及对这个行业的一些假设,组成一个完整的心智模型,来说明怎样判断它的盈利能力能不能长期保持。

And I'd hope you include the comprehensive mental model of the key metrics considered, any qualitative assessments of the management, and any assumptions of its industry to determine the durability of its earning power?

Warren,你也能不能以同样的方式,用一组具体的算术题来演示一下,在资金规模很大的情况下应该怎么计算,并且讲讲从小规模资金变成大规模资金之后,这些方法发生了什么变化?

And Warren, same, same to that effect, would you also demonstrate or illustrate an arithmetic problem set using a significant capital base and provide the object lessons on how those have changed from a small to a large capital base?
M2
M21:17

这个我没法给你一个公式化的方法,因为我不用公式。

Well, I can't give you a formulaic approach because I don't use one.

我只是把所有因素综合起来考虑。如果价值和价格之间的差距不够有吸引力,我就去看别的机会。

And I just mix all— I just mix all the factors, and if the gap between value and price is not attractive, I go on to something else.

有时候,这完全是定量分析。

And sometimes it's just quantitative.

比如说,Costco 当时的股价大概是盈利的十二到十三倍。

For instance, when Costco was selling at about 12 or 13 times earnings.

我觉得这个估值低得离谱,因为这家公司的竞争力实在太强了,而且它很有可能继续一年比一年做得更好。

I thought that was a ridiculously low value just because the competitive strength of the business was so great, and it was so likely to keep doing better and better.

但我没法把这些压缩成一个公式给你。

But I can't reduce that to a formula for you.

我喜欢它便宜的房地产资产。

I like the cheap real estate.

我喜欢它的竞争地位。

I like the competitive position.

我喜欢它的人事制度运作的方式。

I liked the way the personnel system worked.

我喜欢它的一切。我当时觉得,虽然它的股价是账面价值的三倍,或者当时差不多是这个水平,但它的价值应该更高。

I liked everything about it, and I thought, Even though it's 3 times book or whatever it was then, that it's worth more.

但这不是任何人都能拿来套用的公式。如果你想要公式,那你应该回研究生院去。

But that's not a formula that anybody— if you want a formula, you should go back to graduate school.

他们会给你很多公式,只不过那些公式都不会奏效。

They'll give you lots of formulas that won't work.
M3
M32:36

这是我们参加 Berkshire 年会以来,最长的一次没有听到 Charlie 说,他已经开始觉得 Costco 比 Berkshire 更好了。

This is the longest we've ever gone in the Berkshire meeting without Charlie saying that he's getting to the point where he prefers Costco to Berkshire.

好了,Andrew。

Okay, Andrew.