Visa，Mastercard与American Express的比较 — 文稿

M10:00

Warren，如果我们看你股票投资组合过去三到五年的表现，最亮眼的一些回报来自 Visa 和 MasterCard，它们的回报率大概是 American Express 的三到四倍。

Warren, if we look at the performance of your equity investment portfolio the last 3 to 5 years, some of the strongest performances come from Visa and MasterCard, which put up returns that were 3 to 4 times greater than American Express.

可惜的是，你持有这两个标的——我们猜应该是 Todd 或者 Ted 持有的——过去五年合起来占股票持仓还不到百分之一。

Unfortunately, your holdings of the 2 names, which we assume were held by Todd or Ted, have accounted for less than 1% of stock holdings on a combined basis the past 5 years.

而 American Express 一直往往都是前五大持仓之一，平均大概占组合的百分之十，最近则更接近百分之八。

While American Express has tended to be a top 5 holding, accounting for 10% of the portfolio on average and closer to 8% of late.

考虑到这三家公司都受益于强大的网络效应以及有价值的品牌，Berkshire 当时为什么没有把 Visa 和 MasterCard 的持仓提高到更有分量的水平，尤其是在那些 American Express 表现挣扎的年份？

Given that all 3 firms benefit from powerful network effects along with valuable brands, were there any particular reasons Berkshire did not ramp up its stakes in Visa and MasterCard to more meaningful levels, especially during those years when American Express was struggling?

毕竟，你过去也显示过愿意同时持有同一行业的多只股票，比如持有几家相互竞争的银行，也在二零一六年年底买入了美国四大国内航空公司的股份，而且买入金额还相当平均。

After all, you've shown a willingness to own several stocks from the same industry, holding shares in several competing banks and buying stakes in all 4 domestic airlines, in fairly equal amounts when you picked them up in late 2016.

M20:57

对，Ted 和 Todd，或者他们两个人里的任何一个——我就不具体说到底是谁买的了，或者就这件事来说，他们俩也可能都买了 MasterCard——这些持仓在他们各自的投资组合里都占了相当大的比例，而且也没有什么禁令之类的限制。

Yeah, when Ted and Todd, or either one of them—I won't get into which one of them specifically bought, or for that matter, they could both have bought these in MasterCard—they were significant portions of their portfolio, and there was no embargo or anything.

他们持有这些股票，并不会因为我们已经在 American Express 上有一笔很大的投资就受到什么限制，我自己其实也可以去买。

On them owning those stocks because we had a big investment in American Express, and I could have bought them as well.

现在回头看，我当时确实应该买。

And looking back, I should have.

不过另一方面，我觉得 American Express 做得非常出色，现在我们持有这家公司的百分之十七点多，很大的一块股份，而就在不算太久之前，我们持有的可能还是百分之十二。

On the other hand, I think American Express has done a fabulous job, and now we own 17 and a large fraction percent of a company that not that long ago we may have owned 12%.

我们几乎没怎么花什么精力就做到这一点了，而且——这是一家公司，在一个竞争非常激烈的领域里，真的干得特别棒，很多人都巴不得把他们的客户抢走，但他们现在的客户比以往任何时候都多，消费金额也比以往任何时候都高。

We've done it without spending time and without—it's a company that has really done a fantastic job in a very competitive field where lots of people would love to take their customers away from them, but they have more customers than ever and they're spending more money than ever.

我是说，这些客户是这样的，而且它的国际业务增长也在加速。

The customers are, and the international growth has accelerated.

它在小企业市场的渗透率也非常出色。

The small business penetration is terrific.

这真的是一家非常了不起的公司，而且，你知道，我们很喜欢自己持有它。

It's really quite a business, and, you know, we love the fact we own it.

就像我说的，这一点完全不妨碍我去买 MasterCard 或者 Visa；如果我当时像 Ted 和 Todd 那么聪明，我就会买了。

Like I said, it didn't preclude me in any way from buying MasterCard or Visa, and if I'd been as smart as Ted and Todd, I would have.

M32:26

Charlie？

Charlie?

嗯，如果我们能事后再来选股，那我们所有的选股成绩都会好得多；但在当时，我们在 American Express 上已经有很大的仓位了。而在这些支付处理公司的前景里，也不是完全没有一点小小的阴影，那就是中国的 WeChat 这套体系。

Well, we would have been a lot better in all of our stock picking if we could do it in retrospect, but at the time, we have a big position in American Express, and there is one tiny cloud on the horizon of the payments processors, and that is the system of WeChat in China.

所以也不能说远处天边完全没有那么一小片乌云——至于那片乌云到底有多重要，我一点也说不准，我觉得 Warren 也一样说不准。

And so it isn't as though there isn't a little cloud somewhere off in the—and I don't have the faintest idea how important that cloud is, and I don't think Warren does either.

M23:03

对，对。

No, no.

支付在全球都是一件非常大的事，而且有各种各样聪明的人，正用不同的方式试图改变支付体系。

Payments are a huge deal worldwide, and you've got all kinds of smart people working in various ways to change the payment arrangements.

M33:15

想把我们现在这套东西给颠覆掉。

To destroy what we have now.

M23:17

当然，当然。

Sure, sure.

而且也有一些非常聪明的人——你知道，我也是其中一份子——正在打造一家公司。

And you've got some very smart people that, you know, I am a part of, that are building a company.

American Express 几年前做了一个决定，为了留住 Costco 这块业务，他们不愿意像别人那样把报价压得那么低。

And American Express made a decision a few years ago not to bid as low as somebody else did to retain the Costco business.

我觉得在这件事上 Charlie 和我看法不一样，但我认为那是个聪明的决定。

And I think Charlie and I disagree on this, but I think it was a smart decision.

他不认为那是个聪明的决定，不过我们俩总会有一个人是对的，到时候那个对的人会提醒你他当初是对的。

He doesn't think it was a smart decision, but one of us will be right, and one of us will remind you that they were right.

但如果你看看 American Express，这是一家非常了不起的公司。

But if you look at American Express, it's a remarkable company.

我的意思是，你知道，去年他们还遭遇了 Sapphire 的正面竞争。

I mean, you know, they came after them with Sapphire last year.

大家都想抢这块业务，而且支付行业也在变化。

People want that business, and payments are changing.

你也能看到，在不同国家，这件事的演变方式都不一样。

And you can see in different countries different ways things are going on in that.

而且有很多人会玩这种钻系统空子的游戏，会因为这张卡或者那张卡的奖励而从一家换到另一家，诸如此类。

And there are a lot of people that will play the game of gaming the system and switch from one to another based on the rewards on this card or that and all of that sort of thing.

不过我觉得，确实也有一个相当大的群体，对他们来说，American Express 提供了非常特别的东西。而且他们一直在这个群体里不断巩固这种高端、领先的位置，并且在全国各地都做得很成功。

But there also is a, I think there's a very substantial group for which American Express does something very special, and they keep capitalizing on that premier position with that group, and they're doing it successfully around the country.

你会看到，在第一季度，你已经看到了，比如在 Britain、Mexico 和 Japan，增幅都达到百分之十五，或者更高。

And you'll see in the first quarter, you've seen in the first quarter, you know, where in Britain and Mexico and Japan, you're seeing gains of 15% or better.

这是按当地货币来算的。

In local currencies.

而且这个基础盘不算小，但也不算特别大。

And the base is not tiny, but it's not huge.

所以这里面还有很大的增长空间。

So there's a lot of room left to go in that.

而且他们在 small business 这块的渗透率也不错。

And the small business penetration is good.

他们的 loan portfolios 表现好得惊人，跟几乎所有同行比起来都是这样。

The loan portfolios behave sensationally compared to really just about anybody.

所以我非常喜欢我们持有的 American Express。

So I like very much our holdings of American Express.

上半年，因为会计规则的变动，他们不得不暂停了六个月的回购计划，不过他们已经宣布，预计会恢复这个计划。

The first half, because of the accounting changes, they had to suspend their repurchase program for 6 months, but they've announced that they expect to renew it.

而且总有一天，你知道，我们甚至会持有 American Express 更高比例的股份，而在我看来，它也会成为一家更大的公司。

And someday we'll even, you know, we'll own a greater percentage of American Express, and it'll be a bigger company in my opinion.

我觉得我们会做得非常好。

And I think we'll do very well.

不过就像 Charlie 说的，没有人能确定 payments 最后一定会怎么发展，也没有人能确定 autos 最后一定会怎么发展。

But as Charlie says, nobody knows how payments for sure comes out, and nobody knows how autos for sure come out.

而这在很多很多行业里其实都是真的。

And that is true of a great many businesses.

我们所处的很多业务也是这样，而且我们以前也面对过这种情况。

We're in, and we faced it before.

我们以前买的东西，很多根本就是注定会失败的，比如 textiles、二流的 department stores，还有 California 的 trading stamps。

We used to buy things that were certain failures, like textiles and second-rate department stores and trading stamps in California.

现在我们只是面对那些确实有现实困难的业务，所以实际上我们是在往上走，在往更高一层迈进。

Now we just face things that face real difficulty, so we're actually moving up the ladder.

好，station 1。

Okay, station 1.