M20:28
这个问题的答案是，现在我几乎不花时间了，因为我过去已经做过了。
Well, the answer to that question is that now I spend practically none because I've done it in the past.
而且，配置资本有一个好处，就是你做的很多事情本质上都是可以累积的，所以你之前做过的事，会持续给你带来好处。
And, and one advantage of allocating capital is that an awful lot of what you do is, is cumulative in nature, so that you do get continuing benefits out of things that you've done earlier.
到了现在，大多数可能符合条件的企业——不过我刚开始的时候，还有很长一段时间里，我确实做过很多 Phil Fisher 所描述的那种事。
By now, most of the businesses that, that might qualify— but when I started out, and for a long time, I used to do a lot of what Phil Fisher described.
我当时就是用这种 scuttlebutt 的方法，而且我觉得这方面做得再多也不为过。
I followed this scuttlebutt method, and I don't think you can do too much of it.
不过，一般来说，你为什么会对某个东西感兴趣，这一点应该已经占了百分之八十左右。
Now, the general premise of why you're interested in something should be 80% of it or thereabouts.
我的意思是，你不会想用这种方式去追每一个点子，所以你一开始就应该有一个很强的预判。
I mean, you don't want to be chasing down every idea that way, so you should have a strong presumption.
你应该像一个篮球教练，在街上碰到一个七英尺高的人一样。
You should be like a basketball coach who runs into a 7-footer on the street.
我的意思是，你一开始就会感兴趣。
I mean, you're interested to start with.
接下来你得弄清楚，他能不能留在学校里，他的协调性怎么样，诸如此类。
Now you got to find out if you can keep him in school, if he's coordinated and all that sort of thing.
这就是这里面 scuttlebutt 的那一部分。
That's the scuttlebutt aspect of it.
但我相信，当你在积累对行业整体、对具体公司的认知时，真的没有什么比先读一些相关资料，然后走出去和竞争对手、客户、供应商、前员工、现员工，不管是什么人，去聊一聊更有效了，你会学到很多。
But I believe that as you're acquiring knowledge about industries in general, companies specifically, that there really isn't anything like first doing some reading about them and then getting out and talking to competitors and customers and suppliers and ex-employees and current employees and whatever it may be, and you will learn a lot.
但这应该只是最后的百分之二十，或者百分之十。
But it should be the last 20% or 10%.
我的意思是，你不要被这些东西影响得太深，因为你真正想要的起点，是一家你觉得经济性很不错、看起来像那种七英尺高个子的企业。然后你再用 scuttlebutt 的方式出去验证，有可能是否定你原来的判断，或者——如果它验证了你的判断，那你也许会更坚定地下手。
I mean, you don't want to get too impressed by that because you really want to start with a business where you think the economics are good, where they look like 7-footers, and then you want to go out with a scuttlebutt approach to possibly reject your original hypothesis, or maybe— and if you confirm it, maybe do it even more strongly.
我在六十年代研究 American Express 的时候就是这么做的，基本上，scuttlebutt 这种方法极大强化了我对它的看法，所以我一路不断地买、买、买。
I did that with American Express back in the '60s, and essentially the scuttlebutt approach so reinforced my feeling about it that I kept buying more and more and more as I went along.
如果你去跟一个行业里的一群人交流，问他们最害怕哪个竞争对手，为什么害怕它，以及这类问题——比如说，如果要用 Andy Grove 说的那颗 silver bullet，他们会对准谁，等等。
And if you talk to a bunch of people in an industry and you ask them what competitor they fear the most and why they fear them and all of that sort of thing, you know, who would they use the silver bullet of Andy Grove's on, and so on.
你会从中学到很多。
You're going to learn a lot about it.
等你做完整个过程，你对这个行业的了解很可能会超过行业里的大多数人，因为你带着一种独立的视角去看，而且你会认真听每个人在说什么，而不是带着一堆先入为主的想法，最后只是听自己人怎么说。
You'll probably know more about the industry than most of the people in it when you get through, because you'll bring an independent perspective to it, and you'll be listening to everything everyone says rather than coming in with these preconceived notions and just sort of listening to your own troops after a while.
我推荐这么做。
I advise it.
只是我现在自己已经不太这么做了。
I don't really do it much anymore.
我还是会稍微做一点，我在年报里也提到过，一九九四年我们把 prefs 换成 common stock、并决定继续持有 American Express 的时候，就是这样。
I do it a little bit, and I talked in the annual report about how when we made the decision on keeping the American Express when we exchanged our prefs for common stock in 1994.
当时我和 Frank Olson 交谈时，用的就是 scuttlebutt 的方法。
I was using the scuttlebutt approach when I talked to Frank Olson.
我不可能找到比 Frank Olson 更合适的人聊这个。
I couldn't have talked to a better guy than Frank Olson.
Frank Olson 当时在管理 Hertz Corporation，在 United Airlines 也有很多经验，而且他天生就是个做 consumer marketing 的人。
Frank Olson, running Hertz Corporation, lots of experience at United Airlines, and a consumer marketing guy by nature.
我的意思是，他懂生意。
I mean, he understands business.
而且，当我问他 American Express 卡到底有多强的时候——我的意思是，他五分钟就能给我一个答案，而那个答案如果靠我自己到处跑、做别的调查，可能得花上好几个小时、好几个小时，甚至好几周才能得到。
And, and when I asked him how strong the American Express card— I mean, he could give me an answer in 5 minutes that I could accomplish in hours and hours and hours or weeks of roaming around and doing other things.
所以你是可以从别人那里学到东西的，而 Frank 本身就是它的使用者。
So you can learn from people, and Frank was a user of it.
我是说，Frank 给他的 Hertz 租车业务付给 American Express 百分之 X 的费用，而 Frank 可不是那种喜欢往外掏钱的人。
I mean, Frank was paying X percent to American Express for his Hertz cars, and Frank doesn't like to pay out money.
那他为什么要付这笔钱呢？
So why was he paying that?
如果他付得比给 MasterCard 或者 Visa 的还多，那他为什么愿意多付呢？
And if he was paying more than he was paying on MasterCard or Visa, why was he paying more?