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2018年股东大会 · 房产中介是一门好生意吗?

43 段 · 2 位说话人 · 原片 6:23
F1
F10:00

这个问题来自 Atlanta 的 Daniel Kane。

This question is from Daniel Kane of Atlanta.

你们今年的年度信里指出,Berkshire 已经成为美国房地产经纪业务的领先者。

Your annual letter this year pointed out that Berkshire has become a leader in real estate brokerage in the United States.

恭喜,这在不到二十年的时间里是个非常了不起的成就。

Congratulations, that is a significant feat in less than 20 years.

不过我想提一个有点棘手的点。

But let me mention a sticky point.

如果股票市场里主动管理基金收取的费用会拖累投资者的回报,那我会认为房地产佣金其实也没什么不同,甚至可能伤害更大,尤其是如果把一开始那笔放弃掉的大额现金流对一生的影响,以及复利的力量都考虑进去的话。

If fees charged by stock market active managers are a drag on investor performance, I would argue that real estate commissions are no different, and perhaps more detrimental, especially when one considers the lifetime effects of large, foregone upfront cash flows, and the power of compounding interest.

我很想听听您对我刚才这些观点的回应。

I would be pleased to hear your rejoinder on the points I've raised.
M1
M10:51

嗯,对相当大一部分人来说,买房是他们一生中最大的一笔金融交易。

Well, the purchase of a home is the largest financial transaction for a significant percentage of the population that they make.

而且人们,很多很多人,都需要大量关注;你在卖出去一套之前,可能要带看很多很多房子。

And people, a lot of people need a lot of attention, and you can show a lot of houses before you sell one.

我想这么说吧,如果你看看我们现在将近五万名经纪人。

I would say this, if you look at our close to 50,000 agents now.

我觉得他们的收入算是不错,或者说还可以,但我要说,管理资金的人赚的钱要多得多,而他们对自己服务对象福祉的贡献,可能反而更少。

I think they make a good living or decent living, but I would say that people who manage money make a whole lot more money with perhaps less contribution to the welfare of the person that they are dealing with.

所以我不认为做房地产经纪人这里面有什么异常高的利润。

So I don't think that there are unusual profits involved in being a real estate agent.

我也不认为在所有权这一层面上存在什么异常高的利润。

I don't think there are unusual profits involved in the ownership.

我们喜欢这个业务,是因为它从根本上说是个好生意;不过我们现在做的是全美房地产交易的百分之三,大概一年也就赚两亿美元。

We like it because it's fundamentally a good business, but here we are doing 3% of all the real estate transactions in the United States, and we're making maybe $200 million a year.

至于说,在 Wall Street 那边要赚到两亿美元,投入的努力跟这个相比怎么样,嗯,我们就先不展开了;不过我想我得顺便讲一点 Roy Tolles 的故事。

Which, well, we won't get into what the comparative efforts are on Wall Street to earn $200 million, but I think I have to tell them about Roy Tolles a little bit on this.

比如说,Roy Tolles,也就是很多很多很多年前 Charlie 的合伙人,决定说他想在 San Marino 买一套房子。

Roy Tolles, for example, Charlie's partner many, many, many years ago, decided he was going to want to buy a house in San Marino.

因为他打算要养好几个孩子。

He's going to have a number of kids.

所以他就让他那位很棒的太太 Martha 出马,整整六个月都在 San Marino 看房子。

So he sent his wonderful wife, Martha, out, and for 6 months he had her look at houses in San Marino.

而且这是很多年前的事了。

And this is many years ago.

如果房子标价是十五万美元,他就让她出价七万五千美元。

And if they were priced at $150,000, he had her offer $75,000.

那当然把房地产经纪人都快逼疯了,因为他们本来要卖一套挂牌十五万美元的房子,结果只能按七万五千美元成交。

And of course, the real estate agents were going crazy because they were going to get something listed at $150,000 sold at $75,000.

最后,等她找到一套他们两个人都真的很喜欢的房子时,他才让她出了大概十二万美元的价。

And then finally, when she found one that they both really liked, he had her offer something like $120,000.

那位房地产经纪人高兴坏了,因为终于拿到了一个大致还在要价范围内的出价,所以他会非常卖力地去劝卖家接受这个报价,因为他心里知道——他可不想再来六个月,让 Roy 继续按那种低价出价了。

And the real estate agent was so happy to get a bid that was in the general area of the offering price that he would work very hard on the seller to take that bid because he knew what— he did not want 6 more months of Roy bidding at the lower prices.

所以你不是第一次带看就能把房子卖出去的。

So you don't sell them on the first trip.

顺便说一句,我曾经让 Roy 连房子都没看就从我这儿买了一套,因为这家伙太懂人性了。

Incidentally, I had Roy buy a house from me sight unseen because this was a guy that knew human nature.

你不会靠房地产经纪业务暴富——你知道,人家赚的是辛苦钱,而且赚得完全正当、完全体面。

You don't get rich— in real estate agency, you know, people earn their money, and they earn it in a perfectly respectable and honorable way.

就他们拿到的报酬来说,是这样。

Manner in terms of what they get paid.

当然,任何一个行业里都会有——都会有一些过头的情况,或者错误,或者类似那样的事。

And as in every single industry, there is— there, you know, there can be excesses or mistakes or that sort of thing.

不过我们还会继续收购更多经纪公司。

But we will continue to buy more brokers.

事实上,可能过不了多久我们就还会再宣布两起。

In fact, we'll probably have another couple to announce before long.

而且我们会觉得,如果将来我们做到全国房地产经纪业务的百分之十,税前一年赚六亿到七亿美元,我们也不会认为这是一笔疯狂的利润,毕竟这是在帮助美国每年五百万个换房的人里,其中百分之十完成他们的住房更换。

And we will feel that if we get to where we're doing 10% of the real estate brokerage business in the country, and we're making $600 or $700 million a year pretax, we will not think that's a crazy amount of money to make for enabling 10% of 5 million people to change their homes every year in the United States.

Charlie?

Charlie?

嗯,如果你说的是两千万美元的房子,那房地产佣金可能就会显得有点不太合理了。

Well, the commissions in real estate may get unreasonable if you're talking about $20 million houses.

一笔两千万美元的交易还要付百分之五的佣金,听起来是有点离谱,不过,那些愿意花两千万美元买房的人多付一点佣金,我们这里有谁真的会在乎吗?

It seems a little ridiculous to pay a 5% commission on a $20 million transaction, but do any of us really care if the kind of people who pay $20 million for a house have a slightly higher commission?

一般情况下,这个佣金基本上还是赚得挺合理的。

The ordinary commission is pretty well earned.

对,我们有不少 brokerage firm。

Yeah, we have a number of brokerage firms.

所以,其中做得最好的那家,在全国某个地区的平均单笔成交金额,大概接近每套六十万美元,也就是按房子的售价来算。

So the highest has their average transaction in one section of the country would be close to $600,000 a unit, but in terms of the sales price of the house.

但在我们大多数房地产业务里,平均价格更像是二十五万美元左右,大概就在这个区间。

But in most of our real estate operations, the average price is more like $250,000 or something in that area.

而且,为了做成一笔二十五万美元的交易,你可能得带客户看很多很多房子。

And you can show a lot of houses to make one $250,000 sale.

当然了,佣金通常还要在 listing company 和 selling company 之间分掉,一般是两家不同的公司。

And of course, you split the listing company and the selling company, usually two different companies.

所以在我看来,这并不算过分。

So it does not strike me as excessive.

顺便说一句,行业里的人自己也不觉得这有什么过分。

And incidentally, it doesn't strike the people in the industry that way either.

这个行业并没有特别容易被 online 这一类的替代方式所冲击,或者类似的东西取代。

It has not been particularly susceptible to online-type substitution or something of the sort.

大多数情况下,房地产经纪人拿这份佣金是名副其实的,不过 Charlie 对两千万美元的房子更有经验,所以这一块还是让他来说。

The real estate agent earns their commission in most cases, but Charlie's had more experience with $20 million houses, so he will comment on that area.