M20:34
这个问题讲的大概是商业投保人和他们的保险公司之间建立伙伴关系。
The question is about partnerships between probably commercial policyholders and their insurers.
而实现这个目标的方法有很多，比如各种追溯方案、各种可调整费率，还有自留额之类的安排。
And there are a lot of ways of doing that, by various retrospective plans or adjustable rates of various sorts, and self-insured retentions and that sort of thing.
一般来说，买保险只有两个理由。
As a general matter, there are only 2 reasons for buying insurance.
一个是，保护你自己，避免承担那种你自己没有能力承受、或者不愿意承受的损失。
One is to protect yourself against a loss that you are unable or unwilling to bear yourself.
这其中一部分是客观判断，一部分是主观判断。
And that is partly an objective decision, and it's partly subjective.
比如说，一个经理人要是特别担心董事会事后质疑他的决定。
For example, a manager that's terribly worried that his board of directors may second-guess him.
那如果他碰上了一笔没有投保的损失，他很可能会买比公司真正需要的更多保障，因为他知道，至少他永远不用站到董事会面前说，我们刚刚发生了一笔一百万美元的火灾损失，然后董事们接下来问的一句就是，这个保了吗？
If he has an uninsured loss, is going to buy a lot more protection probably than the company really needs, but he knows he's never going to have to go in front of his board of directors and say, we just had a million-dollar fire loss, and then the next question the directors ask is, was it insured?
而他不想回答说，没有。
And he doesn't want to answer no.
所以他可能会做出一件从公司角度看很不明智的事，只是为了保住自己的位置。
So he may do something that's very unintelligent from the company's standpoint merely to protect his own position.
但买保险的理由，说到底就是——这对寿险是这样，对财产险和意外险也是这样，对个人保险是这样，对商业保险也是这样——是为了防范那些你自己不愿意或者没有能力承担的损失。
But the reason for buying insurance is whether—and this is true of life insurance, it's true of property-casualty, it's true of personal insurance, it's true of commercial insurance—is to protect against losses that you're unwilling or unable to bear yourself.
另一个理由，也就是偶尔会出现的第二种情况，是你觉得保险公司其实把保单卖得太便宜了，所以你真心预期，长期来看，买这份保险在数学上对你是有优势的。
Or the second reason, which occasionally comes up, is if you think the insurance company is actually selling you a policy that's too cheap, so that you really expect to, over a period of time, to have a mathematical advantage by buying the insurance.
我们会尽量避免卖第二种保险，而把重点放在卖第一种保险上。
Well, we try to avoid selling the second kind and to concentrate on selling the first kind.
而且我们认为，任何一家向我们买保险的公司——当然，我们卖出去的很多保险本来就是卖给其他保险公司的。
And we think any company we sell insurance to—and of course, much of the insurance we sell is to other insurance companies.
我的意思是，我们很大一部分业务其实是再保险。
I mean, we are a reinsurer in very large part.
我们卖给他们的，是针对某种他们要么无力承受、要么不愿承受的损失的保险。
We are selling them insurance against a loss that they are either unable or unwilling to sustain.
一个典型的例子，可能就是一家在 California 持有很多 homeowners 保单的公司。
And a typical case, you know, might be a company that had a lot of homeowners policies in California.
如果这些保单包含地震保障，那他们可能承受不了那种有可能发生的损失，尽管他们又想保留一个面向 California homeowners 大规模销售的分销体系。
And if those include earthquake coverage, they may not be able to sustain the kind of loss that is possible, even though they want to keep a distribution system in place that merchandises en masse to homeowners in California.
所以我们就会出一张保单。
So we will write a policy.
他们可能先自担前五百万美元的损失，也可能先自担前五千万美元的损失，这取决于他们自己的承受能力。
They may take the first $5 million of loss, they may take the first $50 million of loss, depends on their own capabilities.
但之后他们就会来找我们。
But then they come to us.
而我们确实处在一个非常独特的位置上，可以处理那些别人处理不了的问题——也就是这些公司自己承担不起，而且他们也找不到其他人
And we are really uniquely situated to take care of problems that no one else—that the companies can't bear themselves and that they can't find anybody else
来给他们承保的风险。
to insure.
但我们其实并不想为别人自己负担得起的损失提供保险，因为如果我们这么做，可能是因为他们糊涂，但也可能是因为他们预期损失比我们收的保费还高，而这不是我们做生意想要的。
But we really don't want to insure someone for a loss that they can afford themselves, because if we're doing that, it may be because they're dumb, but it may be because they also have a loss expectancy that's higher than the premium we're charging, which is not what we're trying to do in business.
我想，大概和三十年前相比，现在企业里的风险经理人在买保险这件事上，可能确实比很多年前更聪明了。
I think probably, as compared to 30 years ago, that risk managers at corporations are probably more intelligent about the way they buy their insurance than many years ago.
我觉得这已经变成一种——我觉得他们更成熟、更专业，而且考虑得更周全了。
I think it's become a—I think they're more sophisticated and they've thought it through better.
不过我觉得，这件事多少还是有点参差不齐。
But there is—I think it's a little bit of a mixed bag.
保险有很多种。
There's a lot of insurance.
有些——有相当一部分买的保险，其实是没什么道理的。
There's some—there's a fair amount of insurance bought that doesn't make sense.
也有相当一部分本来应该买的保险，却没有买。
And there's a fair amount of insurance that isn't bought that should be bought.
这个国家里有一些公司，让自己暴露在那种一旦发生就会把它们彻底击垮的损失风险之下。
There are certain companies that are exposing themselves in this country to losses which would wipe them out.
它们宁可不去买再保险，因为它们觉得——怎么说呢——那“太贵了”。
And they prefer not to buy reinsurance because they—it's, quote, expensive.
但它们实际上在做的，是拿一件虽然不常发生、但确实会发生的事，去赌它根本不会发生。
But what they're really doing is betting on something that won't happen very often happening not at all.
如果 Long Island 来一场特大飓风，或者 California 来一次重大地震，就会有不少公司——并没有让自己处在能够承受这类损失的位置上。
And if you take a huge hurricane on Long Island or you take a major quake in California, there are a number of companies that are not—that have not positioned themselves to withstand those losses.
如果你是一个六十三岁的 CEO，你想着，反正我再过几年就退休了，那大概率这事不会在你任上发生；但它总会在某个人任上发生。
And if you're a 63-year-old CEO and you figure, I'm gonna retire in a couple of years, you know, the odds are pretty good that it won't happen on your watch, but it will happen on somebody's watch.
我们会努力把再保险卖给这些人，通常我们能卖成，但有时候也卖不成。
And we try to sell reinsurance to those people, and usually we do, but sometimes we don't.
Charlie？
Charlie?
没什么要补充的。
Nothing to add.
好。
Okay.
第五区。
Zone 5.